New Study -- Correlation Between More Restrictive Gun Laws and Higher Gun Crime

KyJim · January 20, 2014, 04:26 PM

Perhaps I missed it here, but a fairly recent study in Applied Economics Letters reaffirms a previous study in 1997:

Quote:

It may make sense to assume that states in which there are tight laws on weapons would make that state a safer place and one with less gun crime, however, recent research argues that the very opposite is true.

Mark Gius from Quinnipac University, published in Applied Economics Letters, suggests that this is in fact not the case, research shows that in states with more restrictive concealed carry weapons (CCW) laws there is actually an increase in gun related crime.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases...0120095556.htm. BTW, Gius made a similar finding regarding stricter "assault weapons" laws. He is careful to note that additional research is needed (that's almost a given, right?).

It is an overreach to create a cause-effect relationship between gun laws and crime rates but the study is another datum to refute the rhetoric of the gun grabbers.

madmo44mag · January 20, 2014, 04:34 PM

IMHO gun laws have nothing to do with guns.
It's all about control.

**Tom Servo** · January 20, 2014, 05:55 PM

I have a real problem with this statement:

Quote:

In conclusion it would appear that limiting people's ability to carry concealed weapons may in fact cause murder rates to rise. Gius does admit that more research is warranted in this area.

Correlation does not equal causality.

We can't prove that a single practice or law reduces crime any more than the other side can prove that a ban does the same. There are too many other factors at play.

**Aguila Blanca** · January 20, 2014, 07:44 PM

I thought that sounded familiar.

Post #5: http://thefiringline.com/forums/show...ght=quinnipiac

KyJim · January 20, 2014, 10:49 PM

AB --

I knew somebody here must have cited to it first.

The other thread led me to find the text of the article. It can be viewed or downloaded here: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/1...4#.Ut3tb7Qo6M9. I haven't had a chance to read it yet.

buck460XVR · January 21, 2014, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Tom Servo:

We can't prove that a single practice or law reduces crime any more than the other side can prove that a ban does the same. There are too many other factors at play.

I agree, just as I have a hard time believing this new study.

http://health.usnews.com/health-news...icide-homicide

glh17 · January 21, 2014, 12:49 PM

There are many problems with studies testing the effectiveness of gun control. One big one is what Tom mentioned above. Does tighter gun control lead to higher crime rates or does higher crime rates lead to tighter gun control?

Unless statistical techniques for establishing causality have improved a great deal in recent years it is very difficult to establish which variable is dependent. And, that's only the beginning.

Fishing_Cabin · January 21, 2014, 02:04 PM

Since this is a firearms forum, this may be over looked. The issue of "gun control" and whether its effective or not is not limited to the gun control debate itself, pro or con, doesn't matter. The issue is more about whether more/less strict criminal laws can or do result in more/less safety for society in general. This doesn't hinge on the criminal law(s) as a single issue, but more on the legal, judicial and corrections/probation side. Think of it as a three legged stool. One leg that's too short/long makes the stool unbalanced. Similar to the broader legal system. Its all but impossible to say this law does/doesn't work. All of the factors involved must be looked at.

Againstthewind · January 21, 2014, 08:34 PM

http://www.justfacts.com/guncontrol.asp#crime

http://www.businessweek.com/articles...n-self-defense

http://www.gunfacts.info/gun-control...me-prevention/

The last article seemed like the numbers were higher and maybe a little more skewed to their liking. It surprised me at how often guns were used as a deterrent to violent crime. Also I was surprised at how little guns were used in violent crimes overall. There was a stat that said something like 8% of overall violent crimes involved a gun. In Britain where there are strict gun laws, the murder rates seem to be steadily increasing.

Like the other comments said, there are lots of other factors to consider. They handgun ban in Chicago graph was hard to make a conclusion from. DC had like 80 murders/manslaughter deaths per 100000 people in the early 90's. After the handgun ban. Holy Crap! It looks like many US places had the bans struck down as unconstitutional.

January 20, 2014, 04:34 PM	#2
madmo44mag Senior Member Join Date: December 29, 2008 Location: Ft.Worth, Texas Posts: 1,522	IMHO gun laws have nothing to do with guns. It's all about control. __________________ Texas - Not just a state but an attitude! For monthly shooting events in DFW visit http://www.meetup.com/TexasGunOwner-DFW

January 21, 2014, 08:34 PM	#9
Againstthewind Member Join Date: January 4, 2014 Posts: 60	Some other articles http://www.justfacts.com/guncontrol.asp#crime http://www.businessweek.com/articles...n-self-defense http://www.gunfacts.info/gun-control...me-prevention/ The last article seemed like the numbers were higher and maybe a little more skewed to their liking. It surprised me at how often guns were used as a deterrent to violent crime. Also I was surprised at how little guns were used in violent crimes overall. There was a stat that said something like 8% of overall violent crimes involved a gun. In Britain where there are strict gun laws, the murder rates seem to be steadily increasing. Like the other comments said, there are lots of other factors to consider. They handgun ban in Chicago graph was hard to make a conclusion from. DC had like 80 murders/manslaughter deaths per 100000 people in the early 90's. After the handgun ban. Holy Crap! It looks like many US places had the bans struck down as unconstitutional. Last edited by Againstthewind; January 21, 2014 at 08:47 PM.

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January 20, 2014, 07:44 PM	#4
Aguila Blanca Staff Join Date: September 25, 2008 Location: CONUS Posts: 18,458	I thought that sounded familiar. Post #5: http://thefiringline.com/forums/show...ght=quinnipiac

January 20, 2014, 10:49 PM	#5
KyJim Senior Member Join Date: July 26, 2005 Location: The Bluegrass Posts: 9,142	AB -- I knew somebody here must have cited to it first. The other thread led me to find the text of the article. It can be viewed or downloaded here: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/1...4#.Ut3tb7Qo6M9. I haven't had a chance to read it yet.

January 21, 2014, 12:49 PM	#7
glh17 Senior Member Join Date: May 17, 2013 Location: Middle TN Posts: 165	There are many problems with studies testing the effectiveness of gun control. One big one is what Tom mentioned above. Does tighter gun control lead to higher crime rates or does higher crime rates lead to tighter gun control? Unless statistical techniques for establishing causality have improved a great deal in recent years it is very difficult to establish which variable is dependent. And, that's only the beginning.

January 21, 2014, 02:04 PM	#8
Fishing_Cabin Senior Member Join Date: February 10, 2010 Posts: 720	Since this is a firearms forum, this may be over looked. The issue of "gun control" and whether its effective or not is not limited to the gun control debate itself, pro or con, doesn't matter. The issue is more about whether more/less strict criminal laws can or do result in more/less safety for society in general. This doesn't hinge on the criminal law(s) as a single issue, but more on the legal, judicial and corrections/probation side. Think of it as a three legged stool. One leg that's too short/long makes the stool unbalanced. Similar to the broader legal system. Its all but impossible to say this law does/doesn't work. All of the factors involved must be looked at.