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July 19, 2015, 03:47 AM | #126 |
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Not necessarily TOO smart...
Because, it takes "smarts" to realize that the argument that you are making is illogical...or is not realistic. |
July 19, 2015, 04:13 AM | #127 |
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There is a cost no matter if you reload or purchase factory crap ammunition. I would NOT trust my life to factory ammunition. I do trust my life in my reloads every day. More then two deckades ago I bought factory ammunition. The only reason that I purchase factory ammunition now is because I have not found much 7.62x 54R brass for sale. Everything else I reload and yes I reload for other people that shoot factory ammo but they prefer mine because it hits harder and is more consistant.
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July 19, 2015, 06:44 AM | #128 |
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LC has a BA and separates "billable hours" from filing "my" provisional patent application. Which means the kid advocating "specialization" is dabbling in very deep water.
If you do not have a PTO registration number LC, don't be a dork. But you know, not in a legal advice sort of way. And I haven't read any serious personal attacks here yet, just bickering. If you want to see one check out my first post, or close to it. |
July 19, 2015, 02:20 PM | #129 |
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http://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/opportunitycost.asp
I'll just put this here for now to help explain opportunity costs. The responses on 6 pages largely ignore actual economic analysis or address the "cost/benefit" question, which I have fairly answered on both sides of the equation using realistic income ($30/hr) and 9x19, one of the three calibers the OP requested. Other folks chimed in with exotic or unrequested calibers to cherry pick their point. Points made are 1) it's an enjoyable hobby (not an economic response, and one that I have no quarrel with), 2) cherry picked exotic examples, which changes the equation and *may* make it economical or speed up the break even point, or 3) unable to work elsewhere which is a semi-legit answer because nearly everyone can work at something, and 4) an odd analysis that somehow I'm weird for factoring in costs of free time WHEN THAT IS EXACTLY THE ARGUMENT RELOADERS MAKE IS TO SAVE MONEY! Good grief, the hypocrisy is palatable. Again, reloaders never manage to factor in their time, and they want new reloaders to amortize their 20 year old reloading bench and press bought for $10 at a garage sale and 1000 pounds of lead they easily acquired from old tire shops (which no longer give away lead), and 1 million brass cases friends have given them years ago... hardly a fair comparison when really getting into reloading is going to cost about $1000 if you do it right and get a good modern setup, bench, dies, tools, etc. |
July 19, 2015, 03:27 PM | #130 | |||
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If Jesus had a gun , he'd probably still be alive ! I almost always write my posts regardless of content in a jovial manor and intent . If that's not how you took it , please try again . Last edited by Metal god; July 20, 2015 at 09:48 PM. Reason: To add a bunch of stuff |
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July 19, 2015, 06:28 PM | #131 | |
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I do think I mentioned on the first page that 9mm would not be a qualifying caliber due to cheapness of factory ammo...
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July 19, 2015, 09:59 PM | #132 |
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ohhh man.. Please DONT close this thread yet.
I am enjoying this, But keep it Civil ish...
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July 20, 2015, 08:47 AM | #133 | |||||
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https://www.dillonprecision.com/customize-reloader.html But let's cut that in half and say 400 rds/hr just to be ultra-conservative, and plug that back into your example: We'll use 400 rounds an hour for 10 cents per 9mm round. It would take you 250 hours + $10,000 in materials (333.33 hours @ $30/hr) to make 100,000 rounds (400 rds/hr x 250 hours = 100,000 rounds). 250 hours of foregone work @ $30/hr is $7,500 + $10,000 in raw materials + $1000 for the setup. Total economic cost of this 100,000 rounds is now $18,500, versus the $41,000 you calculated with numbers pulled from your nether regions. You expended 250 hours making the rounds + 333.33 hours of labor to pay for the materials = 583.33 hours. Now let's say you're an intellectual economic genius with multiple college degrees you like to brag about and are going to save money by buying your 100,000 rounds of 9mm. You look all over and find some cheap stuff for $185/1000 delivered (good luck with that!). Your total economic cost is $185/1000 x 100 = $18,500. Zounds, that's the exact same as the reloader! What a coincidence! Now let's look at how many hours you worked to get your 100,000 rounds: $18,500 / ($30/hr) = 616.67 hours! But the reloading guy did his in only 583.33 hours for the same price. You sacrificed 616.67 - 583.33 = 33.34 hours of opportunity (studying, writing novels, applying for patents, etc) sacrificed for buying loaded ammo. And if you use a more realistic hourly wage, the comparison is even worse for the average guy buying his ammo. http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_nat.htm#00-0000 Quote:
Reloader: 100,000 rounds = 250 hours loading time. $10,000/($23/hr) material = 435 hours working to pay for material. Total economic cost = 250 + 435 = 685 hours x $23/hr = $15,755. Ammo buyer: 100,000 rounds/($185/1000) = $18,500. Only about 17% above the reloader's $15,755. And how many hours did the average ammo buyer work to pay for his ammo? $18,500 / ($23/hr) = 804 hours. 804 - 685 = 119 hours (pretty much 3 weeks) that the ammo buyer gave up in lost opportunity. I have no doubt that you'll dispute the 400 rounds/hour and $23/hour numbers. When you do, please cite references for your claims. Quote:
Your whole argument comes down to rounds per hour loaded and how much you can make per hour. Skewed to your viewpoint as you did (low rounds/hour and high wage) you can obviously make the numbers come out the way you want. If you really want an intellectual conversation then provide some justification for your claims. Last edited by 45_auto; July 20, 2015 at 09:01 AM. |
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July 20, 2015, 07:28 PM | #134 | ||
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@ 45 Auto. Want to talk skewed numbers, and false information. You said:
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Dillon XL650 Quote:
You're clearly only factoring the actual time sitting in front of the press. That's not a fair comparison or calculation. I was also factoring in the lifetime average, which accounts for all those hours picking up brass, cleaning brass, hunting for primers at gun shows, and on and on and on... all unpaid, unproductive hours when not directly pulling the lever and spitting out a bullet. I'm also quite conservative on their capable figure, as these for most products are often inflated. If you spent 10 hours total buying components, cleaning brass, hunting for brass, weighing, etc., but only load for say 4 hours, then you have to divide all ammo produced by 10 hours, not 4. I picked $30 an hour giving good folks here the benefit of being employable in good jobs, not working at sweeping floors for a living. If you can only earn $11 and hour, then use those numbers. Last edited by leadcounsel; July 21, 2015 at 12:46 PM. |
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July 21, 2015, 01:34 AM | #135 |
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I wrote a spreadsheet that includes the cost of the gear, the cost of training, the cost of the time to get the training, the cost of the time spent loading and the cost of the components and compares that to the cost of factory ammo and yields the breakeven point.
Essentially, the same sort of calculation a factory owner goes through when determining if a new factory is warranted for an increase in production. If you don't want to do the analysis, I am OK with that. If I want to do the analysis, I expect you to be OK with that as well. http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=663065 Some people shoot for fun. Some people reload for fun. Some people crunch numbers for fun. Some people do all three. Don't harsh my mood, please. Lost Sheep |
July 21, 2015, 09:51 AM | #136 | ||||
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If you are really serious about having an intellectual discussion, you would at least have bothered to read my post and also noticed that I only used 400 rounds per hour in my calculations to be conservative, NOT the 800 rounds per hour claimed by Dillon. I did that because in my experience (admittedly limited, I’ve only had my XL650 since 1992, so I’ve only got 23 years of experience on it) I can easily do 500 – 600 rounds per hour. So I used 400 to be conservative, since as I pointed out in an earlier post your conclusions are EXTREMELY rate sensitive. Quote:
However, for arguments sake, we will grant that you are an extremely experienced reloader who is well aware of how many hours your processes take you. I bow to your superior knowledge. If you will enlighten me to my errors and provide some of your "lifetime averages" we can adjust our equation to model your process as closely as possible. As a starting point, I’ll use my experience as a baseline. Let’s clarify a couple of variables that you seem to feel are important before we start: Picking up brass – outdoor - At all of the outdoor ranges I shoot at informally, EVERYONE picks up their brass. Doesn’t matter whether you reload it, give it away, or throw it away, “picking up brass” time is the same for everyone. In the few cases where someone has just walked away and left their brass, ammo boxes, targets, etc, on the ground, we’ve picked them up as a group, reloaders and non-reloaders alike. At club competitions, everyone picks up brass after each stage and throws it in a bucket. After the match, if you want some brass we split it among everyone. Takes about 5 seconds to hold out your bag and get some brass dumped into it. Takes the non-reloaders that long to throw away their ammo boxes. At major competitions, it's "lost brass" anyway and no shooter picks up their brass. I don’t see any difference between reloaders and non-reloaders here. Picking up brass – indoor – I don’t shoot much at indoor ranges except in competitions, which are considered “lost brass” – the range keeps the brass. In that case no one picks up brass, a range employee sweeps it away between competitors. At the indoor ranges I’ve shot at informally, everyone sweeps their brass into a dustpan when they’re done. The reloaders dump theirs into their bag and take it home, the non-reloaders dump theirs into a pail and the range sells it. Again, I don’t see any difference between reloaders and non-reloaders here. Sorting brass – (you didn’t mention this one) I use a system of plastic trays with different size slots in them for the different calibers, don’t remember the name, cost about $20 if I remember correctly. I usually dump all the brass into 5 gallon buckets until the bucket is about full. It takes about 15 minutes to run the full bucket through the sorters, and I believe that a bucket is about 5,000 rounds. So that’s 5,000 rounds / (15 min x 60 sec/min) = 5.56 rounds per second, or .18 seconds per round sorting brass. Cleaning brass – Tumbler does about 1,000 rounds per bowl. Takes me about 30 seconds to dump a bucket of sorted brass into the tumbler, put on the lid, and turn it on. Takes about a minute to turn it off, take off the lid, and run it through the media separator when it’s done. 1,000 rounds in 90 seconds = 11.11 rounds per second, or .09 seconds per round to clean the brass. Hunting for primers at gun shows – this is somehow different from “hunting for ammo” at gunshows for non-reloaders? I’ve never hunted for ANYTHING at a gunshow or anywhere, I personally order all my reloading supplies and ammo and stock up when they’re cheap. You’ll have to supply me with a factor for this one. and on and on and on – you’ll have to supply names and factors for these. I’ve included everything I can think of from getting the brass off the ground to getting it sorted and cleaned and polished and ready for reloading. So let’s set up our equation: Picking Up Brass (PUB) = same thing for both the reloaders and non-reloaders I shoot with, I’d call this one zero. You’ll have to give me your take on it. Cleaning Brass (CB) = .18 seconds for sorting + .09 seconds for cleaning = .27 seconds per round. We’ll keep everything in hours, so that’s .27/3600 = .000075 hours per round. Hunting For Components (HFC) = I still don’t see the difference between hunting for components and hunting for loaded ammo. If you’re not smart enough to look ahead and stock up, it seems to me that it would be the same for both. Again, I’ll need your help since you obviously see this differently. On And On And On (OAOAO) = You’ll have to give me these. I’ve gone through everything I can think of from picking up brass, to getting it ready to load, to buying components. But you did mention weighing. I guess you assume that Dillon doesn’t include that in their “rounds per hour” figure. I spend about 30 seconds setting and verifying the weight of the powder charge before I start, and another 30 seconds checking it every couple of hundred rounds. So if I’m loading for an hour (400 rounds) and I spend 1 minute weighing, that’s .15 seconds per round or .000042 hours per round. Lever Time (LT) = Time actually pulling the lever reloading. Dillon says 800 rounds an hour, I’m still going to use 400. I’m not reloading to try to break any speed records. So Lever Time = 400 rounds per hour, or .0025 hours per round. So far our reloading equation to calculate the hours spent reloading is: Number of rounds x (PUB + CB + HFC + OAOAO + LT) = hours spent reloading For example, for 1,000 rounds, it would be: 1,000 x (0 + .000075 + 0 + .000042 + .0025) = 1,000 x .00267 = 2.7 hours to load 1,000 rounds. It’s pretty easy to look at prices and see that the components in reloaded 9mm ammo are about half the cost of the cheapest factory 9mm. Adding the component cost into the economic cost of reloading equation makes it: ((Number of rounds x .00267) x (wage per hour)) + (.5 x factory ammo cost) Last thing I can think of is equipment cost. We’ll use your Dillon price of $1200 and double it. So equipment cost is $2400. As I said, I’ve had my Dillon for 23 years. Between 1992 and 2002 I easily shot 2,000 rounds per month. Since then I’ve dropped off to 500 rounds per month. That means that I’ve loaded (10 years x 12 months/year x 2,000) + (13 years x 12 months/year x 500) = 318,000 rounds. We won't include the rounds that my friends, kids, and grandkids have loaded on it. So the amortized cost of my equipment, using your price and doubling it, is $2400 / 318,000 = $0.0075 per round If we add the equipment into our equation for the reloader, the economic cost of reloading becomes: ((Number of rounds x .00267) x (wage per hour)) + (.5 x factory ammo cost) + (number of rounds x .0075) The economic cost of NOT reloading is pretty simple. It’s the factory ammo cost. To determine the economic break-even point of the two methods, you simply set them equal to each other and solve for the wage: ((.00267 x Rounds) x (wage/hr)) + (.5 x factory ammo cost) + (number of rounds x .0075) = factory ammo cost. 7th grade algebra gives us; Wage/hr = (factory ammo cost – (number of rounds x .0075) – (.5 x factory ammo cost)) / (.00267 x rounds) Let’s see what the break-even wage is for 9mm, using $180/1,000 for factory ammo cost: Wage/hr = (180 – (1,000 x .0075) – (.5 x 180)) / (.00267 x 1,000) = (180 – 7.5 – 90) / 2.67 = $30.90 per hour Using your numbers for equipment cost and wage, and an extremely conservative rate of production, economically you would have to be making about $31.00 per hour to justify buying your 9mm rather than reloading it. Again, as I stated in a previous post, your assumptions are extremely sensitive to production rate. For example, if you were to use Dillon’s 800 round/hr production rate with the same factors for sorting, cleaning, etc, the time to produce 1 round would be .00137 instead of .00267 hours, making the break even wage: Wage/hr = (180 – (1,000 x .0075) – (.5 x 180)) / (.00137 x 1,000) = (180 – 7.5 – 90) / 1.37 = $60.22 per hour Hopefully you’ll enlighten me by pointing out my errors and omissions. I’m looking forward to incorporating them into my calculations and experiencing some economic enlightenment! Quote:
But you’ll probably make a very successful lawyer, as you already seem well aware of Carl Sandburg’s First Rule of Law. Since neither the law nor facts are on your side, it appears that you’re now resorting to the third option: Quote:
Last edited by 45_auto; July 21, 2015 at 10:55 AM. |
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July 21, 2015, 10:20 AM | #137 | |
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Picking up brass?? really?? 5minutes+/-?? x how many range trips, over a liftetime?? Cleaning brass? Dump in a tumbler, come back in an hour, spend maybe 10min separating from media and inspecting, per batch..is that an hour "wasted?" or just 10 minutes? x how many batches over how many years?? Hunting for primers at gun shows? Cost of gas to get there, admission, an hour, maybe two, spent looking, chatting, maybe making deals...if I come home from the show with a carton of primers, two new (to me) guns, 6 books, 5 new cartridge boxes, a couple of ammo cans, and a pound of REALLY spicy jerky, among other things, HOW do you break that into a "time/cost" hunting for the primers.??? And then, decide what is an "average" for a lifetime? Can you figure in the decades I was reloading when one didn't have to hunt for primers? When you just bought them off the shelf when you went to the store?? Can you figure things like that into your "average", for ALL reloaders, over ALL their lifetimes??? I just don't see how your numbers are anything other than entirely arbitrary, chosen to fit your examples and model.
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July 21, 2015, 01:24 PM | #138 | ||
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With a $1100 press that maxes at 800 rounds/hour, there is NO WAY you are maintaining a lifetime average of 400 rounds. Not a chance. That 800 is top end, as fast as possible, doing nothing else, reloading rate. Lower end, of 500 is more likely, and that is also while reloading. Again, you're not reloading when your going to the bathroom, drinking your coffee, answering your phone, measuring, weighing, etc.
How much time did it take to originally research it, select it, order it, unbox it, set it up? Build or buy and assemble a workbench? Say 5 hours? 10 hours? All of that time is MINUS X hours before you even make a single round. So you're immediately in the "cost savings production hole" by X hours... Quote:
And folks here have $3-5000 or more into their setups... so clearly it can get more expensive. Quote:
You're free to disagree with my analysis about reloading as cost effective. For me, and I'd argue for many, it's simply not. Google exploding guns from reloading. Sure, guns can get a faulty factory load or surplus load, but I'd venture that's much less common. I'd say that because these are/were professional reloaders focused on one load, using presumably highly trained employees. And mistakes would be quickly identified and corrected with recalls, for instance. Not homebrews to push the limits... Someone else will discover the errors in the factory loads and it'll result in recalls. The only person that discovers a reloaders error is the reloader when he touches off the hand grenade. That should tell another piece of the puzzle. Here's a few good ones to get started. http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=436190 http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s...d.php?t=301225 http://concealednation.org/2015/05/w...astrophically/ So, factor in the loss of the gun, plus the cost of injury. At least with a factory round you're not the responsible party... ammo makers have deep pockets that may come in handy when you are missing a hand and an eye. By comparison to reloading, I just ordered over 1600 rounds in under a minute and delivered at no effort to me. If we want to say that we're not factoring in the cost of time, then that ammo was free. Last edited by leadcounsel; July 21, 2015 at 02:05 PM. |
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July 21, 2015, 02:18 PM | #139 | |
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How about this calculation . Lets say you need $5000 a month to pay for all things needed to live your life style . In your job it takes 36hrs to net that amount . Are you waisting any of your time by working more then 36hrs ? If you calculate FREE time to cost something . Is working the extra 4hrs that's not needed costing you anything ? If the extra money is not needed why do you count not having it as a loss ? It's has no purpose therefore no value .
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July 21, 2015, 02:30 PM | #140 |
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leadcounsel you surely must just be trolling us at this point? Factor in cost of exploding gun + injury when estimating cost of reloading... Such things cannot be said with a straight face, can they?
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July 21, 2015, 03:07 PM | #141 | |||||
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Businesses always factor in the costs of loss, breakage, insurance and lawsuits, that sort of thing. And EVERY reloader always has the concern of a mistake or a kaboom, and nobody here can deny that. I've read stories of reloaders who pulled entire batches of bullets where a mistake was found. I've read countless stories of kabooms with reloads and I experienced one myself from someones' reloads. This is why I don't trust them. How about this admittedly extreme example: Reloader burned down his house and suffered burn injuries due to freak accident while reloading. http://county10.com/2015/05/10/break...e-one-injured/ Quote:
My idea of fun and safe it's making little finger-removing and eyesight ruining bombs in my kitchen... just takes one mistake... http://www.defensivecarry.com/forum/...ose-calls.html Thread referencing a reloader screwed up and it cost him his eyesight. http://pistolsmith.com/reloading/177...accidents.html http://6mmbr.websitetoolbox.com/post...oading-1415898 Our very own RCModel: Quote:
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Obviously it's not uncommon to have accidents reloading what are effectively little bombs. So, while some may go years without an accident, it takes one bad one to erase all of the "savings" of reloading. Before I get flamed - yes I do lots of dangerous things. I've jumped out of planes, ridden in fast cars and on motorcycles, use power saws, blah blah blah... THAT'S NOT THE ANALYSIS FOR ECONOMICS OF RELOADING. |
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July 21, 2015, 03:10 PM | #142 |
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Methinks this thread has jumped a whole school of sharks.
Over and out! |
July 21, 2015, 03:31 PM | #143 | ||||||||||
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That means that instead of a Lever Time (LT) factor of .0025 hours per round, it's actually .0025 x (((318,000 / 400) + 10) / (318,000 / 400)) = .00253 That means that the break even cost is now $30.56 per hour instead of $30.90. Quote:
Your break even cost is now down to $27.78 per hour. If you really wanted to be realistic, we should include the disposal cost of the equipment into the equation. Unfortunately for you, that would mean that the equipment cost would be MUCH lower. Using your example, I paid just under $400 for the Dillon equipment that you showed was $1128. I could put a buy it now on Ebay for twice what I paid for it and it would be gone in 30 seconds. But for your sake, we'll stay with amortizing the full purchase price without including the resale value. Quote:
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You can really pretty easily simplify it if you'd like. Your 1600 rounds cost you whatever your hourly wage is times the amount of hours you had to labor. For example, if you paid $210 for your 1600 rounds, it took you 7 hours at $30/hour to pay for them. My 1600 rounds cost about half as much as yours for components. We'll say $120 just to make things easy. Therefore it'll take $120/$30 = 4 hours of labor to pay for them. Then it'll take about 3 hours to load them. So we both have 7 hours into the ammo. Quote:
Last edited by 45_auto; July 21, 2015 at 04:59 PM. |
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July 21, 2015, 03:39 PM | #144 |
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Well, I have to budget my income and I'm not looking for a second job (or actually any job - I'm retired). My wife and I shoot every weekend and use 200 rounds of 9mm each per weekend. Started reloading about 1 1/2 years ago. Bought Lee progressive press and dies. After about 4500 rounds I had paid the cost of equipment. Now the lower cost of reloading means we don't have to budget as much money per month for our shooting. Shooting or "matches" against each other for score, 200 rounds is plenty of shooting every Saturday. Since I wouldn't be spending time doing other things (not in the budget) the lower shooting budget does save us money. YMMV
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July 21, 2015, 03:40 PM | #145 | ||
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It appears that since you can't make your numbers work out any other way, you have arbitrarily decided that the delta is significant without being able to assign a value. Last edited by 45_auto; July 21, 2015 at 03:55 PM. |
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July 21, 2015, 03:50 PM | #146 | |
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My $2,000,000 umbrella policy cost me just under $300 per year. It covers injuries and judgements attributed to my boats, plane, cars, motorcycles and houses as well as personal negligence (guns - reloads). What percentage of the $300 do you think we should assign to the reloading? (Note that historically, the vehicles are at a MUCH higher risk of causing injury.) My personal thoughts (admittedly with no research) would be 40% cars, 20% plane, 20% boats, 10% motorcycle, and 10% house (primarily because of pool). Since that's 100%, we could make it 38% cars and 2% reloading. In other words, I'm 19 times as likely to need the insurance due to a car accident than a reloading accident. Sounds about right to me, if you have some real data let me know. I'll add it in tomorrow if I get a chance, but it's not going to make much difference. We should also assign a percentage of my health insurance payments (injury, loss of limb, loss of eyesight, etc) to the reloads in case I need to use them, but it's paid by my employer. You'll have to put a value on that, it's 0 to me. We'd need your cost of health insurance, as well as what you believe that the chances would be of you being harmed by a reload if you reloaded. 1 in a 100? 1 in 1,000? 1 in 1,000,000? Last edited by 45_auto; July 21, 2015 at 04:17 PM. |
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July 21, 2015, 04:39 PM | #147 |
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LC : Reloading as a hobby is not like owning a business . How many businesses do you know of that sell none of the products they make and in fact consume 100% of that product . You can't use a business model to calculate a personal , on your own time activity . It simply goes back to what I do on my FREE time . You must start with the fact the shooter will be spending money on shooting no matter what . I said this befoe , my guns are going to go bang if I reload or not . That fact the money is going to be spent regardless means you then can try to calculate a way to save and or recoup some of that money .
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If Jesus had a gun , he'd probably still be alive ! I almost always write my posts regardless of content in a jovial manor and intent . If that's not how you took it , please try again . Last edited by Metal god; July 21, 2015 at 04:46 PM. |
July 21, 2015, 09:32 PM | #148 |
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It was fun for a while, but I'm putting and end to this one. Not only are we not going anywhere productive, its become an ...ego... measuring contest, so we're done here, before it gets any worse.
Also, just FYI, listing dozens of jobs in several different fields might impress some with your experience, but what others may take from that is you seem incapable of holding a steady job. Relevant experience is good. More than that quickly reaches into the "smug" category, and can go all the way to condescending. If you've got issues, take it to PM, or take it to a Moderator, and keep it out of the open forums, please. Closed.
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