DOJ gun violence report

[Skans]

Why won't we like the next report?

The next one, or the one after will either show a slower rate in the reduction of "gun crime" or an increase - you can bet on it. Then, the antis will cling to it as a legitimate gauge as to whether or not the country needs more gun control. Their argument will go something like this:

Anti: The NRA used this same report to convince the American people that we did not need any more gun restrictions. Since gun crime appeared to be going down, we let it go and no new AW ban or hi-cap bans were enacted. Now, the same report that the NRA used to convince the American people that they didn't need any more gun laws, shows gun crime on the rise. We can no longer afford to let this go. We must act now. It is time that we enact a new AW ban and magazine restrictions.... You can see that if we don't act, gun crime will only continue to increase.....

[btmj]

From Grizz12

I heard on one of the news stories yesterday that non-fatal gun crime are also down, down by 69%

I read the same thing in yesterday's Wall Street Journal. I don't have it with me here at work, but it was in the A-section, one of the early pages.

[Alabama Shooter]

I believe the proliferation of legal guns, and CCW permits are one of the reasons we are seeing crimes using guns go down. Society is not getting more polite, nor less aggressive, but criminals now legitimately feel they could come up against citizens legally defending themselves, and their homes with guns.

All the evidence points to a lower "proliferation" of guns in the US.

Notable crime drop has lots of reasons. A better and more often publicly armed and equipped citizenry may be one of them.

[btmj]

Found it.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...880236844.html

By NEIL KING JR.
....The Pew study, released Tuesday, found that since its peak in 1993, the rate of people murdered by a firearm dropped by nearly half, from seven deaths per 100,000 Americans in 1993 to 3.6 deaths in 2010.

The rate at which people were victims of nonfatal gun violence was down even more sharply, by 75% from 1993 to 2011. .....

[thallub]

Society is not getting more polite, nor less aggressive, but criminals now legitimately feel they could come up against citizens legally defending themselves, and their homes with guns.

Bingo!!

IMO: It's not a coincidence that the murder rate came down with the enactment of "make my day" laws and "stand your ground " laws.

During the Christmas-New years holidays of 1986-87, six elderly OK citizens were murdered by burglars. These murders, coupled with the killing of a burglar by a Tulsa dentist, who was sued by the family of the late burglar; lead to the OK "make my day" law.

After OK passed the "make my day" law in 1987 the number of burglaries were dramatically reduced. In 1987 there were 58,333 reported burglaries in OK. In 1997 there were 40,015 reported burglaries in OK. By 2000 that nimber had been reduced to 31,661.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-burglary.html

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/okcrimn.htm

[Double Naught Spy]

The next one, or the one after will either show a slower rate in the reduction of "gun crime" or an increase - you can bet on it.

Okay, so the waffling has started. First, it was going to be the next report that we won't like. Now, it will be the next or the one after that. So gun crime will increase? Based on what? You said we can bet on it, but you haven't provided any justification for the claim. What is it that you know that we don't know?

Do we want to cling to a given report? Nope, but there is no reason not to use it to the fullest extent either. Bear in mind that this is a report compiled under the guise of a Democrat dominated government. So we can't claim this is a report negatively biased by the Democrats when it so nicely shows their concerns obviously being alleviated.

To ignore the benefits to us expressed by the data in this report would be extremely short-sighted.

[Doc Intrepid]

To go one step further,

The extent to which this DOJ report substantiates, even indirectly, the NRA's contention that "the only thing that stops evil men with guns is good men with guns" is nothing short of remarkable, particularly considering that Eric Holder is the US Attorney General, ostensibly at the helm of DOJ.

One wonders whether this DOJ report will factor at all in the media circus which is sure to lead up to the mid-term elections...

[thallub]

Total fatal and non-fatal gun violence incidents declined dramatically from 1,548,000 in 1993 to 478,000 in 2011.

Then there is this:

In 2004, among state prison inmates who possessed a gun
at the time of offense, less than 2% bought their firearm at
a flea market or gun show and 40% obtained their firearm
from an illegal source.

[thallub]

One wonders whether this DOJ report will factor at all in the media circus which is sure to lead up to the mid-term elections...

i doubt it. This DOJ report comes out every year. The gun rights organizations have never really emphasized this report: That is a mistake.

Many gunowners are too wrapped around the axle with the "UN is going to take my guns away", "Obama will take our guns by executive order", "the govermnent is buying up all the ammo", "DHS bought 1,500 armored personnel carriers" and numerous other high button conspiracy theories to pay much attention to a favorable crime report from DOJ.



BTW: The numbers from previous reports are more or less locked in stone. If anyone in government would mess with those figures and phoney up a subsequent report there would be a big congressional investigation.

[Tom Servo]

It's not a coincidence that the murder rate came down with the enactment of "make my day" laws and "stand your ground " laws.

Actually, unless we can prove causation (not just correlation), we have to assume it is a coincidence.

The fact that such laws did not lead to an increase in crime is a good point to make in an argument. However, the idea that the laws are responsible for a decrease in crime is something we can't prove.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

One needs to see if the drop also occurred in states that did not have such gun friendly laws. Lott argued that he co-varied such out but that's been controversial.

You would need steeper slopes in the gun states vs. the nongun states to make that point. Probably been done but I don't recall the gun states being steeper. Also, you need to look at it by a county by county basis to control for demographic differences.

The point about there not being a noticeable increase in crime is well taken.

[Alabama Shooter]

You would need steeper slopes in the gun states vs. the nongun states to make that point. Probably been done but I don't recall the gun states being steeper. Also, you need to look at it by a county by county basis to control for demographic differences.

NY would certainly contend the opposite is true. Murder plummeted when gun ownership was severely restricted. There argument also has little validity.

In the US violence is correlated closely to ethnicity, education, age, gender and income related.

For example African American males are murdered at rates 8-10X that of whites males and nearly always by other AA males. If it were possible to separate the statistics we would have a very European type murder rate (around 2.6) for non AA's in the US.

[motorhead0922]

I will be watching Wisconsin rates. Latest info is here:
http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/wicrime.htm

It only goes to 2011, which is a partial year for concealed carry. Violent crime was down in 2011, but it appears to just be following the recent year-over-year trend. It will be interesting to see what happened in 2012.

[Wreck-n-Crew]

Actually, unless we can prove causation (not just correlation), we have to assume it is a coincidence.

The fact that such laws did not lead to an increase in crime is a good point to make in an argument. However, the idea that the laws are responsible for a decrease in crime is something we can't prove.

Have to agree that it's like a fingerprint that had reason to be there at the crime scene.

I am just glad that it's more than the other side has.

[gc70]

Originally Posted by Alabama Shooter

If it were possible to separate the statistics we would have a very European type murder rate (around 2.6) for non AA's in the US.

The statistics are available. The CDC has a query system for fatal injuries; select "homicide" and "firearm" and whatever geographic, race, ethnicity, sex and age factors are of interest.

[Alabama Shooter]

The statistics are available.

Yes I know. What I meant was that we are one nation and therefore the good, bad and ugly make up our national identity.

We can point to a part of our society where there are problems are but unless we address those problems properly they won't go away.

[KyJim]

Probably the most surprising statistic I have seen is from Table 13 on page 13:

In 1997, 9.9% of those in state custody and 7.6% of those in federal custody possessed single shot firearms when arrested. In 2004, the percentages were 7.5% and 8.2%, respectively.

SINGLE SHOT FIREARMS? What type of moron packs a single shot firearm when up to no good?

[Spats McGee]

Two possibilities: (1) a moron who didn't have enough cash for anything else; and (2) a moron who counts on the deterrent effect of having a firearm. Note that the two are not mutually exclusive.

[Wreck-n-Crew]

would a single shot 12 gauge was inclusive to the single shot firearm category?

At least i can see t being more formidable and scary to the person on the other end. But the whole idea of a single shot? Agree...just not smart and i hope criminals get dumber...lol