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Old August 12, 2014, 11:16 PM   #26
Adamantium
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I'd bet after some market research of which name is more popular, either Bushmaster or DPMS will go away. I bet Remington will keep one around though.

It is my personal opinion that any industry growing this fast is a bubble. When will the bubble burst though? Who knows... It is safe to say all the start up shops who are just buying parts and assembling gun would be quick to die off. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Olympic go under either. I can't think of any company that has failed to increase the quality of their product over time as bad as them.

Beyond that I'd bet some of the higher quality "me too" type companies would be effected. LMT, POF, Rainier, maybe some others. They don't have the following of DD/BCM/Colt. It is hard to quantify how their products are that better than much cheaper options. Plus the genie is out of the bottle on Mil-spec parts at cut rate prices. The days of $200 for a mil-spec BCG are quickly going away.

I doubt the lower end makers will be all that hurt by a bursting bubble. If you think there is a limited market for cheap guns that only need to shoot every once in a while, you are spending too much time on the internet. That is the target market for most of the gun buying public right there.
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Old August 12, 2014, 11:19 PM   #27
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How is your opinion any more fact than a LGS owner stating they won't be around in a years time?
What are you even talking about? Predicting market trends is an exercise in speculation, it's not about facts.
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Old August 13, 2014, 10:22 AM   #28
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I work for a gun store, Colt is not going anywhere (he probably just has trouble getting them)
And he's the owner of one local gun shop... just his opinion, if he (or you) were truly clairvoyant, you could just sit on the beach and work the stock market...

BTW, he has Colt 6920s on the shelf for $875, they are not hard to get right now.
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Old August 13, 2014, 03:48 PM   #29
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BTW, he has Colt 6920s on the shelf for $875, they are not hard to get right now.
They sure aren't hard to get.

But try to find am LE901, Rail Gun, Marine Pistol, Wiley Clapp, Special Combat Government, or even a lowly 1991A1. When and if they sit on gun store shelves, they don't last long.
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Old August 13, 2014, 06:53 PM   #30
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Not that it's germane to the thread, but this morning he had Mustangs, blue and stainless Gov't Models and at least one stainless Commander... didn't take a complete inventory, but he also had Kimbers, Springfields, S&Ws, Sigs and at least two bargain brands from the PI.
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Old August 13, 2014, 07:56 PM   #31
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Then his prices must be high, or the customers must be cheap we cant keep Colt handguns in stock... the 6920 meh... they come and go the same rate as the over priced Bushmasters.

The AR Market is saturated right now because of panic ordering during panic buying, so our back room is FILLED with AR's. Like I said... Colt can't be hurting badly to have just purchased LWRCI now can they?


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When I think AR15, I think ABCD. Armalite, Bushmaster, Colt, DPMS. I'm sure there are equivalent guns, better guns, and worse guns out there, and I don't care - don't waste my time. For quality, performance, price, value, and cachet, those four have it all covered. Buy with confidence. Enjoy.
Meh I wound't say that statement with out switching the B to BCM and the D to Daniel Defense. Even Armalite can be spotty at times, we have had a few issues with them.

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Old August 14, 2014, 10:35 AM   #32
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Colt was rumored to be buying LWRC, which has an export contract for six8 carbines over seas. I suspect they will be around for a while.

Remington, however, is moving to Alabama, and has more than just DPMS or Bushmaster under their collective belt. It also includes Grizzly and other traditional brands.

With the market collapsing and sales down, some incentive exists to drop brand names. Bushmaster is the most sensitive and could add good will if they lost it. They do need something better than their old school name, tho, albeit they are supplying milspec guns on contract to the military now.

Most of the start up's won't survive simply due to traditional pressures. On average over 75% of companies fail during the first ten years. Spike's and BCM aren't immune, but they are tracking well. Smaller start ups less than five years old are much more at risk now because market share means they may not meet cash flow minimums to pay staff or even order parts. In the next two years - given that another panic can't lift sales enough - they will fold. Simple business stats and the nature of competition. The fittest survive.

There are already dozens of small roll mark makers obsolete, and likely dozens more will follow over the years. It's less a matter of which one of the smaller players, more of which big name will go under. Due to debt and market difficulties, I won't be surprised to see Cereberus shed the losers and leave just one to survive.
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Old August 14, 2014, 11:56 PM   #33
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Nevermind
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Old August 15, 2014, 12:35 AM   #34
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I think a good generalized answer to the question posed is that, as a glut on the market is achieved, demand goes down, and the AR fascination fades, the majority of AR clone manufacturers will also fade into obscurity.

Quite frankly, my military experience with the M16 left me cold to the gun, and I have really never liked them. I have one* (AR15) just to say "I have one," but I really don't like it, and I really have zero interest when all you hear about is this black gun or that black gun and all the ridiculous rails, lights, lasers, butt wipers, can openers etc. that are sold as accessories for them.

Just a theory. YMMV

*I built it and the company that made my lower is already out of business. (Kaiser Defense.)
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Old October 21, 2014, 08:34 AM   #35
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Increasingly interested in the various LWRC rifle models seen in my searches.
Will keep my fingers crossed their division remains as an upgraded part of Colt.
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Old October 21, 2014, 05:26 PM   #36
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My .02 on Colt. I think Colt really dropped the ball on cashing in on there share of the civilian AR craze of the last few years. When I first got into ARs and asked around on getting a good AR this was the typical response....... "Colt is the standard by which all others are measured if you can afford it, but brand X, Y, & Z they are just as good at 1/2 the cost so unless you want to pay double for the cute little Pony roll mark get brand X, Y, or Z. My point is if Colt had dropped there prices and really marketed there ARs toward civilians ten years ago I predict 1/2 the AR15 start up company's wouldn't be around today and Colt would be enjoying a lot more of the market share than they do today.
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Old October 21, 2014, 06:44 PM   #37
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Colt shot themselves in the foot repeatedly... starting way back when they installed a blind pin in their receivers to prevent their (legal) conversion to full auto, then the non-standard pin sizes for trigger/hammer so you couldn't install other mil-spec parts... then dropping civilian sales altogether, then....
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Old October 21, 2014, 07:34 PM   #38
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Yet they are still here and doing well..... Colt I would say never needed to lower their AR prices, people spend almost the same amounts on crappy
Bushmasters off the shelf. The real issue is people don't know how to shop around and are impulsive. Colt's are affordable, and are far from the expensive end of the AR market.
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Old October 21, 2014, 08:46 PM   #39
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AR manufacturers, or AR assemblers? There are not as many AR manufacturing machine shops out there as one would think. I worked in a place that made AR15 pattern rifles (every thing but the barrels and stocks) and saw no less then 5 different names stamped on the sides of the very same batch of parts. Some left the place generic (no names) and got stamped by the assembler. They could make a run of 1000 lowers, and stamp 5 different names on groups from the very same stock box.

Many AR assemblers may disappear, but most of the AR manufacturers will still be around.
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Old October 22, 2014, 04:01 AM   #40
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AR manufacturers, or AR assemblers? There are not as many AR manufacturing machine shops out there as one would think.
This is a great point. There really are only a handful of actual manufacturers out there. Heck, 4 companies(LMT, MMS, LAR, CMT) make the vast majority of all the lower receivers in the market. Those guys aren't going out of business any time soon. The guys they sell to, that's a different story.
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Old October 23, 2014, 09:26 AM   #41
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As for the AR craze winding down, not so much. Even when the gun is superceded, demand will remain high. 25 milllion prior service men and women will keep sales up, just the same as the Garand - but we won't likely ever get to purchase a select GI model from the DCM sales floor for $400. Not going to happen.

Retro and collector versions are already well established, I suspect there have been more trigger charging uppers sold by Nodak than originally made. And the variations over the last 45 years are numerous, leaving the field open to collectors who want one of each to represent that specific configuration. We've see the racks of Mausers and 03's over the years, there are shots of the Garands etc, now it's the M16's turn.

That likelihood isn't going to go away by dismissing it as a passing fad. The Vietnam reenactors are already getting good attendance. Consider a rack with a trigger charging early M16 in brown furniture, an early issue M16 Anothing in grey anodizing with hand painted green furniture, another all black, then with the FA, changes in charging handles, sights, the A2, port firing weapons, CAR's, XM's, service variations from the Navy, Air Force, and Marines, add in a Canadian and other foreign makers, Bushmaster, LWRC, LMT, Remington, FN, oh my.

All issue. That's a whole bunch of roll marks - don't forget Armalite, GM, and others early on.

If people are collecting M1 Carbines how much more so are they already collecting AR's? Some have been for over 20 years.

7.5 pistol, 10.5 pistol, 14.5 SBR, 16" AR15, 20" M16, SDM-R, Marine Corp M27 IAR, HK's (not to demean them by just one listing of their numerous examples,) ad infinitum.

Haven't even touched the AR10 and their current list of fielded weapons.

Did some shoot themselves in the foot? Maybe, maybe not. Going into the consumer retail business means exposing yourself to meet the expectations of the public, who frequently do read between the lines in the marketing efforts and actually demand that the hype deliver. Milspec contracts are in their way easier to deal with - a few points of contact, well spelled out terms, and specific measurable performance criteria. Contract sales are a lot less about overexpectant consumers and reality based demands. You can negotiate or correct an interpretation with a single source purchaser a lot easier than the collective and widely varied broken expectations of a consumer public who can't even write down exactly what they really wanted. Bluntly, most don't have a clue as to what range and target they plan to use the thing on. What they really want is a substantial increase in self esteem and admiration for even owning it.

Playing footsie with their ego isn't easy. Exactly why most would never even consider a job in retail waiting on the public . . .

Nope, the AR is here to stay, and for a very long time. Saying it's a passing fad would be like an '03 owner grumbling about the kids and their newfangled self loading Garands. Yeah, we might need them 'cause the Germans are doing it too, but real men crank bolt handles in combat, right?

These days, it's the Kurds, and they are faced with AK's and M16's in the hands of ISIS. Nope, I wouldn't volunteer to do that. It's 2014 and the traditional gun market is fading away. Take a moment to notice among the larger makers - who doesn't offer an AR type rifle?
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Old June 16, 2015, 03:49 PM   #42
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Ahem...less than one year from when this thread was started...

Colt files for chapter 11.
Gun maker Colt Defense LLC said late Sunday it is filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection, amid business-execution issues and a heavy debt burden.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/colt-def...day-1434310925
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Old June 16, 2015, 03:54 PM   #43
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I firmly believe we will continue to see ARs and 1911s made with the Colt name on them. Now, obviously the actual ownership of the company is probably going to change over the next few years, but lot’s of value in the Colt brand and it’s not going anywhere.
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Old June 16, 2015, 07:21 PM   #44
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Some people want rifles with old names.

Something like colt goes down... Someone will pony up the dough to get the name.

I think t most ARs are frankenguns anyway. My opinion.

Will always be a market for parts people buy them to swap parts out
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Old June 16, 2015, 07:40 PM   #45
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Colt might go.
Others might go.
The "Firingline.com." could go also.
This Website is stale to say the least.
A hundred other Firearm sites bring a lot more than this boring place.
Not knocking it. Just way too many more great places for current information.

Colt... Man I hope they didn't really pick up LWRC.
Great company but just like this site... all things come to an end enentually.
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Old June 16, 2015, 08:49 PM   #46
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As others have said, it does not matter. Every thing AR 15 is interchangeable with any other AR15.

I think its time to buy again. Just waiting on a package deal for 5 lowers to add to the stash.
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Old June 16, 2015, 09:04 PM   #47
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Yet they are still here and doing well.....
I guess they weren't doing as well as you thought.....

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Colt I would say never needed to lower their AR prices,
You still stand by that statement.......
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Old June 16, 2015, 10:59 PM   #48
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Many have already come and gone but many manufacturers have decided to skip the middleman and have opened online storefronts, adding to the already daunting task of picking a rollmark you can live with. I think as long as a small manufacturer can offer something the big boys can't (better prices, better materials, fancy rollmarks or set screws in place of roll pins) then they'll keep selling. There are plenty of people buying components and that's a good market these days. I think the trend is moving away from complete rifles, but maybe that's just what I think. I think it's fantastic that there are so many manufacturers of AR-15 rifles and even more AR-308/AR-10 rifles and components available. Heck, we're about to see a whole new industry of American AK manufacturers flood the market in the future (you wait and see). It's never been more exciting and it's only getting better every day.

I'm sure plenty of people prefer to buy complete rifles from their manufacturer of choice, but I would beg to argue that most of the AR pattern rifles on your range any given day are custom builds, or at the very least, completed uppers and lowers slapped together.
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Old June 17, 2015, 05:05 AM   #49
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Colt might go.
Others might go.
The "Firingline.com." could go also.
This Website is stale to say the least.
A hundred other Firearm sites bring a lot more than this boring place.
Not knocking it. Just way too many more great places for current information.

Colt... Man I hope they didn't really pick up LWRC.
Great company but just like this site... all things come to an end enentually.
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Old June 17, 2015, 10:22 AM   #50
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Ahem...less than one year from when this thread was started...

Colt files for chapter 11.
Gun maker Colt Defense LLC said late Sunday it is filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy-court protection, amid business-execution issues and a heavy debt burden.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/colt-def...day-1434310925
I still don't see Colt going anywhere. They will reorganize, be bought out, and likely keep churning out product until the next time the cycle comes around.

The fact still remains that Colt sells just about every product they make.
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