The pain of false hope

Independent George · May 17, 2015, 10:36 PM

Have you ever caught the beginning of a no-reserve Gunbroker auction, knowing with absolute certainty that there's no way the price is going to stay where it is, but still end up hoping against hope that it will anyway?

There's a Model 19 with a near-perfect finish (glossy blue) on it. And while I know that there's no way it ends at less than $700, the current bid of $171 is just mocking me.

I really want somebody to bid it up so I can stop salivating already.

8MM Mauser · May 18, 2015, 01:53 PM

I used to put in super low-ball bids all the time hoping to get an amazing deal through a no reserve auction. When I was 22 and making $9 an hour and going to school I figured "why not?"

Never happened for me however.

There seem to be lots of revolvers listed in this way especially. I remember back in 2011 around the time my daughter was born there was a no reserve auction on a Ruger security six that sat at like $75 for 3-4 days. I finally bid $80 on it but before the auction ended it went for like $600, which was more than a comparable gun at my local cabelas...

SaxonPig · May 20, 2015, 07:04 AM

I got a new in box 27-2 for $321. A nice 4" M57 for $325 and a well used 14-3 for $100. Sometimes they go cheap but you won't know if you don't bid.

WVMountaineer · May 20, 2015, 08:32 AM

Yep. Been there. Best way I've learned to deal with it is simply not to deal with it.

I truly believe there are too many people that get friends to bid up there merchandise. These guns go for way higher than new retail. And, if you look at gun broker, there is enough of that going on to make me believe it is a real occurrence.

I once bid on a model 700 ADL, 30/06. It had been abused. However, the bore was supposed to be good. I figured I'd build me a foul weather rig outta it. So I placed a very nice bid on the gun early on. It far surpassed the starting bid. But, I felt it was a good indication showing I had intentions of buying it. Competition started by oneguy on day two. He kept testing the waters but, my bid was never beaten.

Over the course of the next 5 days, 9 bids were placed testing the water but, none had beat my max. It was so dang high, my buddy who knew I was looking for such a project, told me about the gun in general conversation during that time, mentioning the absurdity of the price versus the condition.
In the end, the dang gun went higher than wood stocked BDL's in good shape. Not a doubt in my mind the Bids were placed to get the top dollar out of the gun. When you see this and the badgering bidder has bought a few guns only, I tend to equate that to a bud running up the bid for the owner. Bid late. Anything else is just wasting your time and allowing a person to do this. God Bless

Independent George · May 20, 2015, 01:18 PM

Well, as expected, the Model 19 has eclipsed $700 with a 10 days left in the auction, and I'm relieved. I was never in the running. I predict a final sale price of $850 - I like guessing at the final price, just to see if I'm valuing the guns properly. I've gotten pretty good at it, so I feel pretty comfortable with my general opinion that most sellers overvalue their guns by about 20%.

It also makes me feel better about the auctions I've both won and lost on - I got good prices on the ones I've won, was right not to go higher when it didn't clear the reserve, and I was never seriously in the running on the ones I lost.

I always bid late just to keep my options open in case something else shows up. There are still some great deals out there, but it's always better to walk away if you've the least doubt. I only wish I'd learned this lesson before buying my condo, but such is life.

Slimjim9 · May 20, 2015, 06:38 PM

Quote:

it's always better to walk away if you've the least doubt. I only wish I'd learned this lesson before buying my condo, but such is life.

Ah, the cold hard truth of experience. Something tells me the condo closed a little bit north of $850.

spacecoast · May 20, 2015, 07:58 PM

If the pictures are good, you're almost never going to catch a "sleeper" that others are afraid to buy. Once in a while a misspelling will also prevent wide visibility.

KyJim · May 21, 2015, 08:10 AM

Independent --

I've seen others do this as well, but why did you post here about the auction when you're bidding on the gun? The thread has over 400 views. Maybe, just maybe, a couple of the viewers saw your post and scurried over to Gunbroker and bid -- probably not but you never know.

It's a lot like telling everyone about your favorite fishing hole. Before long, it's someone else's favorite fishing hole -- until the fish are gone.

Independent George · May 21, 2015, 11:42 AM

You got me. I was hoping somebody would outbid me so that I could stop finally stop checking up on the auction every hour... which rapidly turned into every 15 minutes.

I've won and lost (mostly lost) plenty of auctions before, but was never this emotionally invested before. My other guns are primarily tools; this would have been my first for the collection.

It's like dating a girl WAY out of your league; after a while, you start dreading the inevitable more than you enjoy the ride.

Joe_Pike · May 21, 2015, 04:41 PM

In January there was a model 10-7 about to end and the bid was $223. I bid $230 for fun and won it for $228 + $20 shipping. The gun is in great shape, although it doesn't have the origanal grips. That gun would sell for $400 in a local gun shop.

GyMac · May 21, 2015, 05:53 PM

I try not to look at the auctions, but I find myself doing it anyway. It's torture.

smee78 · May 21, 2015, 06:04 PM

I have picked up a few good additions here and there. Its hard not to get on the site just to "look around".

May 17, 2015, 10:36 PM	#1
Independent George Senior Member Join Date: September 7, 2013 Posts: 573	The pain of false hope Have you ever caught the beginning of a no-reserve Gunbroker auction, knowing with absolute certainty that there's no way the price is going to stay where it is, but still end up hoping against hope that it will anyway? There's a Model 19 with a near-perfect finish (glossy blue) on it. And while I know that there's no way it ends at less than $700, the current bid of $171 is just mocking me. I really want somebody to bid it up so I can stop salivating already.

May 21, 2015, 11:42 AM	#9
Independent George Senior Member Join Date: September 7, 2013 Posts: 573	You got me. I was hoping somebody would outbid me so that I could stop finally stop checking up on the auction every hour... which rapidly turned into every 15 minutes. I've won and lost (mostly lost) plenty of auctions before, but was never this emotionally invested before. My other guns are primarily tools; this would have been my first for the collection. It's like dating a girl WAY out of your league; after a while, you start dreading the inevitable more than you enjoy the ride. Last edited by Independent George; May 21, 2015 at 11:49 AM.

May 21, 2015, 04:41 PM	#10
Joe_Pike Senior Member Join Date: December 30, 2010 Posts: 1,581	In January there was a model 10-7 about to end and the bid was $223. I bid $230 for fun and won it for $228 + $20 shipping. The gun is in great shape, although it doesn't have the origanal grips. That gun would sell for $400 in a local gun shop. __________________ Stay Groovy

May 21, 2015, 06:04 PM	#12
smee78 Senior Member Join Date: July 14, 2008 Location: South Carolina Posts: 2,918	I have picked up a few good additions here and there. Its hard not to get on the site just to "look around". __________________ We know exactly where one cow with Mad-cow-disease is located, among the millions and millions of cows in America, but we haven't got a clue where thousands of illegal immigrants and terrorists are

May 18, 2015, 01:53 PM	#2
8MM Mauser Senior Member Join Date: October 16, 2011 Location: Grand Rapids, Michigan Posts: 647	I used to put in super low-ball bids all the time hoping to get an amazing deal through a no reserve auction. When I was 22 and making $9 an hour and going to school I figured "why not?" Never happened for me however. There seem to be lots of revolvers listed in this way especially. I remember back in 2011 around the time my daughter was born there was a no reserve auction on a Ruger security six that sat at like $75 for 3-4 days. I finally bid $80 on it but before the auction ended it went for like $600, which was more than a comparable gun at my local cabelas...

May 20, 2015, 07:04 AM	#3
SaxonPig Senior Member Join Date: April 24, 2006 Posts: 1,900	I got a new in box 27-2 for $321. A nice 4" M57 for $325 and a well used 14-3 for $100. Sometimes they go cheap but you won't know if you don't bid.

May 20, 2015, 08:32 AM	#4
WVMountaineer Senior Member Join Date: January 11, 2015 Posts: 330	Yep. Been there. Best way I've learned to deal with it is simply not to deal with it. I truly believe there are too many people that get friends to bid up there merchandise. These guns go for way higher than new retail. And, if you look at gun broker, there is enough of that going on to make me believe it is a real occurrence. I once bid on a model 700 ADL, 30/06. It had been abused. However, the bore was supposed to be good. I figured I'd build me a foul weather rig outta it. So I placed a very nice bid on the gun early on. It far surpassed the starting bid. But, I felt it was a good indication showing I had intentions of buying it. Competition started by oneguy on day two. He kept testing the waters but, my bid was never beaten. Over the course of the next 5 days, 9 bids were placed testing the water but, none had beat my max. It was so dang high, my buddy who knew I was looking for such a project, told me about the gun in general conversation during that time, mentioning the absurdity of the price versus the condition. In the end, the dang gun went higher than wood stocked BDL's in good shape. Not a doubt in my mind the Bids were placed to get the top dollar out of the gun. When you see this and the badgering bidder has bought a few guns only, I tend to equate that to a bud running up the bid for the owner. Bid late. Anything else is just wasting your time and allowing a person to do this. God Bless

May 20, 2015, 01:18 PM	#5
Independent George Senior Member Join Date: September 7, 2013 Posts: 573	Well, as expected, the Model 19 has eclipsed $700 with a 10 days left in the auction, and I'm relieved. I was never in the running. I predict a final sale price of $850 - I like guessing at the final price, just to see if I'm valuing the guns properly. I've gotten pretty good at it, so I feel pretty comfortable with my general opinion that most sellers overvalue their guns by about 20%. It also makes me feel better about the auctions I've both won and lost on - I got good prices on the ones I've won, was right not to go higher when it didn't clear the reserve, and I was never seriously in the running on the ones I lost. I always bid late just to keep my options open in case something else shows up. There are still some great deals out there, but it's always better to walk away if you've the least doubt. I only wish I'd learned this lesson before buying my condo, but such is life.

May 20, 2015, 07:58 PM	#7
spacecoast Senior Member Join Date: October 14, 2009 Location: Sunshine and Keystone States Posts: 4,461	If the pictures are good, you're almost never going to catch a "sleeper" that others are afraid to buy. Once in a while a misspelling will also prevent wide visibility.

May 21, 2015, 08:10 AM	#8
KyJim Senior Member Join Date: July 26, 2005 Location: The Bluegrass Posts: 9,142	Independent -- I've seen others do this as well, but why did you post here about the auction when you're bidding on the gun? The thread has over 400 views. Maybe, just maybe, a couple of the viewers saw your post and scurried over to Gunbroker and bid -- probably not but you never know. It's a lot like telling everyone about your favorite fishing hole. Before long, it's someone else's favorite fishing hole -- until the fish are gone.

May 21, 2015, 05:53 PM	#11
GyMac Senior Member Join Date: April 19, 2012 Posts: 189	I try not to look at the auctions, but I find myself doing it anyway. It's torture.