Is this shortage temporary?

[hounddawg]

manufacturing will not ramp up because of panic buying, in fact it will probably slow down this fall. Why ? Because as someone else pointed out demand has not risen in proportion to the buying. Once someone has what they feel are enough primers or powder to last till whenever they stop buying, yet they still shooting roughly the same amount. How much they feel they need and how much they shoot is all relative, even at club level a competitive IDPA shooter might go through 1K to 2 K small pistol primers a month where as most people won't shoot that much in 3 months.

I am not going to count my primers for you guys but if I went over to the local store today and they had 3 full shelves of primers those things would have to be priced really low (less than $20.00 per K )to get me to buy any

[spacecoast]

if I went over to the local store today and they had 3 full shelves of primers those things would have to be priced really low (less than $20.00 per K )to get me to buy any

A price that low is highly unlikely at a retail store. Tula primers are often less than $20 per K online, but you have to add a hazmat fee and shipping.

[hounddawg]

Oh I know Spacecoast I was just illustrating my point that when someone has enough to last whatever they feel is a reasonable supply they stop buying whether their drawer has 7K or 70K. I doubt I will do another primer order before early to mid 2014 and that will just be a mixed order of small pistol and small rifle. I don't use 100 large pistol and large rifle a month so a few K of each should last me till I die unless my shooting habits change so why buy more just to say I have them. Now if I were to find CCI SP and SR for 2 dollars a sleeve I would gladly buy 5 K of each which would last me several years, but as you said that ain't going to happen. I was caught short on .22 LR this year but that was just because I started playing with steel plate competition. Luckily a local sporting goods store received a large shipment of CCI last week. Now I have enough to last me for the season, if I shoot steel again next season I will have to buy more, but if I lose interest I will go back to just keeping enough on hand for plinking. So my part in this surge is all over. I figure a lot of people will be in the same boat, they scrambled to buff up their supply then not need anymore for a couple of years. Those caught flatfooted will be buffing up their supply as new stock hits the shelves but when they hit their comfort zone they too will stop buying

That is why manufacturing will not increase, It takes money to ramp up production for what is going to be a short term surge. Now if this panic were to incite people going to the range more often or entering competitions where a lot of ammo gets burned then over the long term manufacturers will slowly ramp production up

[Kirkpatrick]

My LGS has a framed picture of Obama above the register, under the president's face is a caption that reads, "Salesman of the Year".

[hounddawg]

~chuckle~ offtopic of reloading supplies but I wonder how many people are going to be stuck with half a dozen 700 dollar AR's they thought they could resell for $ 3K each. My local online gun classifieds are packed with them and they just ain't moving no matter how many times the seller relists them. There is only so much of a market for anything

Anyway my advice is if you have enough stuff to last another 6 months chill out until you can get a reasonable deal

[Pilot]

Everything is temporary.

[vito]

I'm just trying to get into reloading. I ordered a Lee press and the accessories I need to get started and I was told it would be only a couple of weeks for the items to come in. I was able to buy a couple pounds of powder to start (a pound each of Unique and W231 based upon advice from this forum). The one item I can't find anywhere is small pistol primers. I guess I can practice loading once I am set up, without primers, just to get comfortable with the process, but I think I will be pretty frustrated if after I finally decided to start reloading I am stymied just by a lack of primers.

[hodaka]

Vito, many of us use small rifle primers in place of small pistol. They interchange and are basically the same although slightly hotter (think magnum). Of course you need to work up the loads as with any other component. You may have an easier time finding them...............then again you may not.

[hounddawg]

I think small pistols are going to be in short supply for awhile. Most pistol sport competitors use a .40 or a 9. Might be a good time to get a .45. In the 09 shortage I went to .45 for IDPA

[chiefr]

Answer to the OPs question = YES
The election of 2008 fathered a buying, hoarding frenzy unseen since the Clinton era. It took 6 months before the market caught up with demand.
Essentially, we have the same problem. I have no doubt the market will recover providing congress protects our individual freedoms.

[hikingman]

When people flock to stores, or shows as compared with a few months prior, it does absolutely nothing to stabilize, or lower prices. In fact, quite the opposite effect will be found. Increased activity or demand in the short run will see prices move up.

My hope is that the hype, talk, and attention will slow down, soon. Hoarding by both profit mongers, and those reacting with increased spending we've seen in recent weeks (by some) is not a good thing for the average guy on this forum. Empty store shelves are no fun for a hobbyist.

[Mike Irwin]

No. within five years there will be international wars over the last box of primers.

It has been temporary every other time something like this has cropped up. There is no reason to think that this time will be any different.

[MSD Mike]

Just plan ahead and expect it to take awhile to ship. During the last shortage primers took 6-8 weeks to show up for me. On a different note, I just ordered Large Pistol CCI primers from Graff and Sons and they were in stock. No small pistol though.

Mike

[JimDandy]

I expect parts will last quite a while, and parts will not. I was given a photograph for christmas because what I asked for was backordered. It finally showed up as available on Brownell's website. I ordered it that day. They processed my order and told me it was out of stock. So either it never was, or sold out before they got to my order. I lean towards the former, given estimates from other companies. Most of them don't think they'll get a tumbler in stock for 3 months or more.

Nobody is going to pay to ramp up production for this demand level because nobody is even hinting that this demand level will remain. Even the question we're answering assumes the premise that demand will fall again. Would YOU pay to ramp up production for temporary demand? Sure they may pay some overtime, but not for production facilities and equipment...

I think it'll be longer than a few months, and it'll take longer to get supply back than the demand will be there as companies trickle back into "in stock" statuses.

[rajbcpa]

You are all optimists on issues relating to the eventual end to the current primer shortage.

Unfortunately, these views are based on the belief that no changes in gun laws will occur and that is niave.

The low hanging fruit the gun-grabbers will pursue is a total ban on Internet sales of ammo and ammo components, and a national gun register for all gun owners. I don't believe either of these measures require Congressional action and they could be forced down our throats by presidential executive orders issued by king Obama.

[UtopiaTexasG19]

If the current lack of supplies was just going for individual re-loaders inventory would come back pretty fast because the vast majority of shooters do not reload. In fact I have seen figures as low as 4% of shooters do their own reloading though it is anyone's guess. The problem for us reloaders is that the manufacturers of brass, primers and powder will get pressured by the bullet manufacturers to send them any inventory available. I think us reloaders will be last in line for individual componants.

[zincwarrior]

You are all optimists on issues relating to the eventual end to the current primer shortage.

Unfortunately, these views are based on the belief that no changes in gun laws will occur and that is niave.

The low hanging fruit the gun-grabbers will pursue is a total ban on Internet sales of ammo and ammo components, and a national gun register for all gun owners. I don't believe either of these measures require Congressional action and they could be forced down our throats by presidential executive orders issued by king Obama.

In which case you won't need the primers. See you just have to look on the bright side of life.

[hounddawg]

executive orders cannot on those things that would impinge upon congressional powers. Therefore while Congress could restrict internet sales of ammo and primers, Obama cannot just issue a executive order for such a law

[Hammerhead]

In 2008 the shortage was across the board, this time it seems more about auto calibers.
This time I've had no trouble finding bullets, powder and primers to feed my revolvers.

[Mike Irwin]

"Unfortunately, these views are based on the belief that no changes in gun laws will occur and that is niave."

As others have noted, there have been similar shortages before, and the 1992 to 1994 time frame was one of them.

Back then there were people making claims similar to the ones you're making, and they didn't come to pass then, either.


"The low hanging fruit the gun-grabbers will pursue is a total ban on Internet sales of ammo and ammo components, and a national gun register for all gun owners. I don't believe either of these measures require Congressional action and they could be forced down our throats by presidential executive orders issued by king Obama."

First off, your understanding of how laws are made in the United States, as the powers of the president to issue executive orders, is pretty seriously flawed.

ALL of those things would require Congressional action.

Secondly, more than a few of us are more than old enough to remember when mail order sales of ammo and powder was illegal. Sky didn't fall then.

Banning internet sale of inert components such as bullets would not only be very difficult, it very likely wouldn't survive a court challenge. Similar efforts at the state level have failed on legal challenge before.

[tobnpr]

Biden is about to meet with the NRA...
Among "others" for his "committee"...

What's REALLY disgusting about the whole thing is that the "Committee's" report is due AT THE END OF THIS MONTH.

Now, sorry about this Democrats...

But, only a Democrat could believe such a serious, and COMPLICATED issue as causes/effects of gun violence could be summed up by Papa Joe with a couple of meetings over a few weeks time.

What a sadly politicized JOKE...

And, it's going to be because of this rush to do "something", effective or not, that the House (and who knows, maybe even the Senate) will table this for a good long while for further study, as they should.

Natch, every study- even those by anti-gun groups- showing the prior AWB had negligible, if any, effect- will never see the light of day.

As horribly tragic as the Connecticut shootings were, most Americans (excluding the rabid anti-gunners) are able to separate fact from fiction.

The polls still show limited support for additional gun regulations, and support enforcement of existing regs.

Won't be too long before I'll be able to buy the lowers I wanted at a reasonable price again.

[deepforks]

even if there are no primers/powder/etc on the shelf, ask if they have any in back/behind the counter. i made a stop at my local sportsmans warehouse this evening and did just that (small pistol). the guy said he thought there were 500 in back and went to get them for me. he came back with a box of 5,000! said here you go and handed them over.

[RC20]

I think I have 70,000 primers. No less than 68,000 anyway. Not so good on brass powder and bullets, but I should have enough primers to last me till I die.

So thats where they all went

[hooligan1]

Just came off Midway USA's website, and brother it looks like they're out of everything!!!??

[Gitsum]

called my gun shop yesterday. They have 6 bottles of my powder and 3 brands of small pistol primers. no problems here