How many bullets do you really need?

[Pointer]

How many bullets do you really need?

Three... Mo-zam-bique!

The average gunfight lasts about as long as it takes to fire about 2.5 rounds...

If your opponent fires 2.5 rounds... then you are a crappy shot...

For concealed handgun carry... one extra loading (speed loader or magazine) should prove sufficient...

[Blackwater OPS]

For the people saying they only carry as much as they will need, can you give me the number to your psychic hot line? I need some lotto numbers.

[mete]

Blackwater, I got a CCW once and was given a sheet of instuctions about carrying .One of the comments was 'carry your gun only when you are going to need it ' !!!!

[Frenchwrench]

How many times have I seen a magazine ejected out of the gun after the draw in IPSC? Enough to want a reload.Fumble fingers would be the norm in the CYP of a gunfight...

[tony pasley]

How many? Enough to have a spare mag. when it is over.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

To answer this question you need knowledge of gunfights and statistics.

Most folks center on the average but forget about the distributional characteristics of the shots fired per incident.

Do you plan for the average or a reasonable number to cover 95, 99 or 99.9% of the incidents? Depending on distributional shape, you can count on about 50% or some large proportion of fights needing more than 2 or 3.

Thus, saying since the average takes 2-3 and that you don't need more really shows that a real look at the distribution hasn't been done.

Then, even looking at these numbers doesn't take into account probabilities of magazine failure or the like.

For a semi - you probably cover most bases with a hicap in the gun and a spare mag. You miss the extreme upper end of gun fights with only one spare mag.

Also, probabilites should be defined in number of mags needs, not 'clips'.

Most folks tend to go with the archetypal single mugger incident.

Oh, hello - I am a mugger - give me your wallet.

No, I am a steely eyed dealer of death from the Internet. I will draw my gun and shoot with a bullet of high stopping power.

Bang, you are stopped! I win.

Now going with another branch - since most DGUs are defensive with no shots fired - a simplistic probability view (like using the average) - leads me to predict that you need to carry no bullet, clips or mags.

[revjen45]

I carry a Steyr S9 with 2 extra mags, i.e 31 rds. There are times when I carry a .38 revolver with one or 2 speedloaders, on the assumption that anything is better than nothing. What is the downside to having lots of rounds in the gun plus lots more ready to go? Nothing. What is the downside to having less ammo than you need if the uminaginable happens? The long dirt nap. As mentioned earlier, home invasions usually involve more than one assailant, and the the Steyr or Mak in my bathrobe pocket (with extra mags) is to fight my way to the Mossy 8-shot full up with #00s. If you could predict the timing and nature of an attack, you would arrange to be elsewhere. That being impossible, be as well armed as you can.

[The Canuck]

I find this thread interesting. As has been said a million times before, it comes down to shot placement. A lot of you are going to decry the heat of the moment, the adrenaline dump and the dynamics of movement while shooting. Well, I have found out one thing, very clearly, you fight how you train. You do not train for a specific scenario, oh no.

You train your skill sets, rapid fire on target, rapid presentation & fire to stop (the threat), movement while firing, situational awareness, tactical reloading, Immediate Action drills, gun retention, multiple threats, tactical assessment, (I'm gonna catch all sorts of heck for this last one) Mindset of a Warrior. When you go into a situation when you have trained your skill sets you can deal with a lot more in the way of situations than training for a specific one because then you have the skills to apply on the fly. When we see the Special Forces and SWAT guys doing thier thing what we are really seeing is the application of thier skillsets in a (usually previously unknown) scenario, not a scenario rehearsal.

If it sounds like it is a lot of work, you're right, it is. If we are serious about our self defence the very least we should do is get a working grasp of these concepts so that we can win and live.

I am just back into firearms (less than a thousand rounds), but I am already doing stoppage drills, shot placement and shoot to stop (aggression). When I get into the IDPA/Tactical Pistol I will have access to ranges where I can safely begin to practice the rest of the skills with a firearm.

[Pointer]

...since most DGUs are defensive with no shots fired - a simplistic probability view (like using the average) - leads me to predict that you need to carry no bullet, clips or mags.

Using the average... of perhaps 0 to 2 or 3 rounds...

And then deciding to carry two full loads of let's say, 10 rounds... gives you about 6 times as many rounds as you are LIKELY to ever need... A third magazine would make it about 10 times what you are ever likely to need...

If you are a LEO, you might-could need more... but then, you have responding backup LEO's...

If you are a lone Highway Trooper... it wouldn't hurt to have a couple of extra magazines... because backup response MIGHT be too far away...

But chances are, you or the perp, will be dead long before you can reload...

As has been mentioned, shot-placement is critical... if you put it where it does the most good... you will not even need the whole magazine, clip, or cylinder...

That's why we practice and requalify from time to time... Those who practice more, will stand a much better chance than those who don't...

To me... a "double-tap" means "two plus one"... TWICE...

MO-ZAM-BIQUE!

[Mueller]

Well ,if you practice diligently stay situationally aware and carry spares and maybe a back up, then you have likely, possibly and maybe all covered.

[Pointer]

You got it!
LOL

[sdb777]

Originally Posted by njtrigger

Do you really need a hi-capacity clip of 12 or more bullets?

Are you suggesting that we give up high-capacity magazines?
Are you suggesting everyone turn in their handgun(other than the 6-round revolver)?
Sounds like a sort of anti-gun thread!


Scott B

[NCHornet]

Using the average... of perhaps 0 to 2 or 3 rounds...

And then deciding to carry two full loads of let's say, 10 rounds... gives you about 6 times as many rounds as you are LIKELY to ever need... A third magazine would make it about 10 times what you are ever likely to need...


If you want to risk your life on "an average" go right ahead!! I am mean really why do you care if member "X" wants to carry 6 mags, 3 BUG's, 6 knives and 4 flashlights, you're not the one hauling it around, right?
I also don't know where these so called averages come from. Take for instance the flood of videos we have seen on this forum and other forums lately. Not one of these shootouts were finished with 2-3 shots, they all involve many more shots than this. As I said there are a lot of variables that go into how much ammo I take, where am I going, what time of day or night, alone or with others, what am I wearing, what gun etc.... It is up to each person to ask themselves these same questions and decide what they are comfortable with. As for what the next guy carries with him or her, I can care les!!

[orionengnr]

There is currently a thread on this BB about a home invasion with six participants.

Predators can travel in packs, and I find that myself growing less confident in smaller capacity/smaller caliber.

I have not forsaken either, but am continually re-evaluating my choices...

[GreyFox]

I like to be able to not weigh myself down, so this attatchment is what i usually bring with me when i want to grab the mail from the box in the afternoon, with out really digging into the safe.


I don't know what kind of question that really is, But if you feel secure with putting two rounds in your firearm for personal protection that's great. We should all move to your neighbor hood. But reality is you don't know whats going to happen or when. But if you can carry 15 rounds in a clip, and have 15 more on your waist comfortably, why wouldn't you. Would you rather not have it if you needed it. And then the other reality no one wants to hear is, a very, very small percent of of non LEO's... or even leo's will have to fire their weapon in a life or death situation. You look like your from NJ. What about the shoot out in Newark yesterday, off duty officer was killed. Or what about I believe east orange three or so days ago, off duty CO was in afire fight while trying to get a oil change.... He potentially saved a mans life... Sh*& happens, will you be involved?, I hope not and probably you won't. I would rather be prepared ( and no that doesn't mean i carry an ammo can everywhere i go) Unfortunately there is no way to answer your question the way you want it to be answered, the way you question was stated didn't seem like you wanted any kind of answer but the one you wanted to hear.

[Mueller]

If you knew that trouble was coming and how many, you would run the other way as fast as you could, thereby avoiding it all together or you might carry this :

www.andrewsleather.com

Look under Shoulder Rigs for Firepower Rig

Average's are for statisticians and bean counters.

[FLA2760]

Many self defense situations including the dreaded home invasion have multiple bad guys acting in concert. So how many do you think you need?

[njtrigger]

Let me restate my question guys.

I didnt ask how many bullets that you think a person might need or what is the maximum that could be needed...I didnt ask about shot placement either. . .

My question is this. . .in real life situations, what are the actual number of bullets that have been needed. I dont have the actual statistics. Is there a study out there that has been done?

[Mueller]

Only "studies" I have seen or heared about are numbers generated from law enforcement, but many of them have been known to include AD/ND and suicides, thereby skewing the numbers.

CCW holders and how many shot's per engagement, a statistical study? I wouldn't want to be the one in charge of trying to gather the data to make such a study.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

There are some police studies - like the famous NY - SOP - 9 (IIRC) and the figures from Kleck's work.

None of these have data that are solid enough with good enough statistics to give a definitive data set that could answer your question of whether you need a hi-cap.

I've talked to Kleck, Mauser and other criminologists/researchers on this and they agree that we really don't have tight data set due to various methodological difficulties.

As I said before, you cannot go by the cliche that an average fight takes 2 to 3 rounds.

[Samurai]

Mmmmkay.

Here's a "thought" to immediately disregard: "Guns don't kill people; Exanguination kills people."

What the above statement means is that, when you fire a bullet, the guy you shoot is going to remain mobile for some undetermined period of time AFTER you shoot him. (One shot to the arm, he'll be conscious for several hours; one shot to the brain, he'll be awake for only a moment or two.)

NOW! What does this mean in terms of "tactics and training"??? It MEANS that when you carry a gun, what you are actually carrying is a TIMER for the fight! You are carrying a device which has the ability to place a set, limited duration for the remainder of the fight for which it is used. The way this little device works is as follows: The MORE bullets you fire into the attacker, the SHORTER the fight will last.

SO!!! When we ask ourselves, "How many bullets should I carry?", what we are really asking is, "How much longer after I begin firing do I want to get beaten on by my would-be attacker?" If you are content with firing a SINGLE shot, then only carry one bullet. BUT, be aware of the fact that your attacker will probably keep going for five (5) MINUTES or more after he is shot! If you want the fight to end in LESS TIME, then carry more bullets.

Let's start with a premise: As a rule of thumb, we divide by 2 for each round shot. (I have absolutely NO scientific data to back this up, but if you bleed twice as fast from two bullet holes as you do from one, then it makes sense, sort of.) (I realize that 3 holes is not "twice" 2 holes, but it's only an exercise. Shut up and read!) If one shot will set the timer at "5 minutes remaining in the fight," then two bullets will set the timer at "2.5 minutes." Keep on dividing by 2, and you conclude that 6 shots will end the fight in approximately 9.325 seconds. 9 shots will end the fight in approximately 1.165 seconds.

Now, eventually, you will keep dividing until you reach "instant death." I think this is a little absurd, so the mathematical model will probably not match up exactly with reality. But, it's a good exercise.

So, now the final answer: If I am being KILLED, that is, if someone is attacking me with lethal force, I want it to stop BUT NOW!!! How many rounds do I carry? As many as I can HOLD!

[shield20]

I do not know what the actual statistics are, I do not know what the majority of real-life CCW cases show, and though I know what has been reported as averages, I do not give them much thought...

Instead, what I find MYSELF doing as much as possible at the range the last year or so is getting 'near' 1 or 2 (or 3) silouettes, drawing my P99c, and emptying a "handful" of rounds at said 1 or 2 (or 3) targets COM as fast as sight pictures will allow at the same time I am moving, squatting or otherwise not staying put. If I have rounds left, I reholster, re-postion, and redraw shooting another "bunch" of rounds at the target(s), somewhere in there I will drop the mag and reload and fire some more as fast as i can.

I PLAN on needing alot more then 2 or 3 rounds, exactly how many I can't say, but I PLAN on shooting ALOT at the 1st draw, and PLAN on hitting enough times (alot) to stop the threat(s). I figure 10 rounds in the mag is a good starting point as it matches my CCW choice AND NYS law, while having a 2nd mag, preferably on my belt but even if just in a pocket, will back that up OK. [BTW, I now choose 9mm 'cause I can get alot of quality hits in the shortest amount of time, and the recoil and capacity matches my CCW choice well]

[Prophet]

I'm just wondering topthis, did either of your friends get in trouble because spraying the front of a truck with 13 rounds and knowing that any of those rounds could have missed and hit civilians the cops would have had a field day so if he didn't get introuble i'm calling BS on the second of your incedents.

[OBIWAN]

Glen is right

Statistically most altercations are ended simply by producing the weapon

So all you numbers guys should carry rubber guns...they are much less maintenance intensive

Most of you seem to be falling into that same tired "old west gunfight" trap

You may be standing toe to toe at some distance with a single assailant

But you may be trying to hit a smart assailant that is only exposing a very small amount of his body.

See he is smarter than you...he has cover

So a fair number of your rounds may not hit him..defelcted or stopped by cover

And a certain number may hit him in an extremity...painful...but not deadly

He may not give you Moz-Junkies a clear and stable 3 shot window at either his head OR his chest

he may be in a bladed stance that puts his heart on the other end of his body from your bullets or makes it likely that they will all pass through his torso obliquely (if at all) without hitting any organs or major blood vessels

and you may simply miss....after all....you are excited

How many rounds will it take now?

And Samurai is spot on....more bulllets= more holes= quicker incapapcitation



I believe it was Clauswitz that said you had to be prepared for what the enemy could do....not what they were going to do

[teejhot.40cal]

My dad was a state trooper and was first on scene to the shooting of a retired troopers wife. This was a random attack but they didn't know it at the time. Two other troopers pulled over the vehicle that matched the description of the shooter's jeep. The two troopers heard a gun shot and the one trooper fell. The other trooper unloaded his revolver on the Jeep. It turns out that the guy shot himself and the bullet hit the back of the car just right to ricochet in the troopers shin. Fortunatly, the trooper only had a black and blue mark on his leg when he dropped his pants on the four lane. About the six shots, he didn't even hit the vehicle and no one has any idea where they went.

Ever since dad told me this story, I found that the perfect number of rounds was one more than need. So how many rounds can I fit into that gun?

Do you plan for the average or a reasonable number to cover 95, 99 or 99.9% of the incidents?

No, I plan to cover a 100% of the incidents I am involved in.