Gun Ownership Poll Accuracy

scrubcedar · March 17, 2013, 09:11 PM

Folks, we've seen a lot of posts and threads about the accuracy of studies saying gun ownership is decreasing.
First a few points from a man who used to take medical studies apart for a living.
If you ask someone whether they own a gun and they answer yes you have not established whether they own a gun. You have not seen the gun, you have not touched, or in this time of air soft guns, established it is indeed a firearm. You have simply established that this person will answer yes to the question under certain circumstances.

If they answer no, without a detailed investigation probably requiring many man hours, you certainly haven't established they don't own a gun. Even if you were to establish the facts one way or another you have simply gotten the right answer for that day.

To help you understand how inaccurate this is I'm setting up an experiment.
The Poll above is simple,"If you own a gun right now if a pollster asked you whether you own any guns you would-"

K_Mac · March 17, 2013, 09:36 PM

There is not a snowball's chance in Honolulu that I would answer this question from a random pollster. Yes, I own guns. If you know me at all you don't have to ask; if you don't know me it is none of your bidness.

**Spats McGee** · March 17, 2013, 09:41 PM

I'm unlikely to answer any questions posed by random pollsters calling me, much less ones about what valuable possessions I might have in my home.

Edited to add: I would probably answer a poll in which I contacted the pollsters, but not the other way around. I'm way too nervous about folks testing the waters to rob my house. Heck, I may be a little extreme, but I won't even verify security information on any inbound call, like from my bank.

Dr Big Bird PhD · March 17, 2013, 09:49 PM

Never seen a gun before.

scrubcedar · March 17, 2013, 09:51 PM

I have a strong suspicion you two are representative. Which would inevitably lead to under-reporting strong enough to skew any poll numbers.

**Spats McGee** · March 17, 2013, 09:54 PM

I have a strong hunch that you are correct: gun ownership is probably very underreported/underrepresented for a variety of reasons.

Fishing_Cabin · March 17, 2013, 09:54 PM

I answered with the "Guns, who has guns" bottom answer...I dont trust the pollsters not to be either a theif, or a friend of a theif. Also, from the looks of some of these polls, these pollsters are no friends either.

Evan Thomas · March 17, 2013, 10:01 PM

"I'm sorry, but I don't do polls." <hangs up>

scrubcedar · March 17, 2013, 10:10 PM

If we can get enough response to this poll it occurs to me that it would be a useful thing to put in a link to a lawmaker on the fence. "This constituency is under-reported Senator, here's hoping it's not necessary for you to find out the hard way next election day."

Rorik · March 17, 2013, 10:30 PM

Quote:

"I'm sorry, but I don't do polls." <hangs up>

This would be my answer. Don't want to say anything like "I would prefer not to say" as that hints that you probably have a firearm and just don't want the person on the other line knowing. I would never say yes for reasons already listed and I wouldn't say no as if it is a true poll I do not want to give misinformation.

K_Mac has it right: if you know me, you know where I stand on guns and know that I own many firearms. If you don't know me, it most certainly is none of your damn business.

egor20 · March 17, 2013, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Vanya

"I'm sorry, but I don't do polls." <hangs up>

Bingo, we have a winner!!

GM2 · March 17, 2013, 11:29 PM

Quote:

I'm sorry, but I don't do polls." <hangs up>
__________________

Good answer indeed! And I also give that answer to any Phone Pollster about anything they are asking about .

2ndsojourn · March 18, 2013, 05:19 AM

^^^^ I agree.

"I'm sorry, but I don't do polls." <hangs up>

NOYB.

Sport45 · March 18, 2013, 06:40 AM

I live in Texas.

"Why are you calling, doesn't everyone have guns?" The vistor information centers are there at the border to issue one along with a road map if you need it.

scrubcedar · March 18, 2013, 03:46 PM

Almost 70% showing that they would not answer yes when asked by a pollster. Considering that most studies show between 35% and 50% think about what that means.

lcpiper · March 18, 2013, 04:07 PM

What's a polster?

Really, I am over 50 and not once in my life have I been asked to take part in a poll?

The closest I have come is a few mail-in or on-line surveys.

I would probably refuse to respond.

draidt · March 18, 2013, 04:15 PM

So what would be your answer if your primary care physician asked you this in a general check up or in a emergency room visit ? You know damn well a refusal to answer will be a mark in the yes column. Welcome to Obama care.

lcpiper · March 18, 2013, 04:20 PM

Umm, I would walk out.

No patient = no money = a rethinking of policy.

**Spats McGee** · March 18, 2013, 04:36 PM

Obamacare, however, is not the subject of this thread.

**Spats McGee** · March 18, 2013, 04:53 PM

I have now gone through and deleted posts that I would characterize as off-topic bickering. Such bickering continued after my last warning regarding Obamacare. Either stay on-topic for this thread, or go find a thread where you can stay on topic.

AllenJ · March 18, 2013, 05:07 PM

I've been "polled" a couple of times in my life and I usually end up arguing with them. Stats are typically manipulated to say what the person paying for them wants, or never published when they can't be. A waste of time is what it boils down to in my opinion.

Gaerek · March 18, 2013, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Heck, I may be a little extreme, but I won't even verify security information on any inbound call, like from my bank.

That's not extreme, that's smart. My wife and I have been called no less than 6 times in the past 8 years from someone claiming to be from the bank. When we told them we'd call back using the number on the back of the card or from the website, they immediately hung up, and when we did call, the bank wasn't trying to contact us at all.

sigcurious · March 18, 2013, 05:17 PM

I answered refuse to answer the question. However, that would be in the form of refusing to do the poll in the first place.

Kreyzhorse · March 18, 2013, 05:24 PM

In this day and age of endless phone scams and assorted phishing schemes, I'm not answering any poll questions.

buck460XVR · March 18, 2013, 05:33 PM

If I knew it was a legitimate poll, I would have no problem answering yes without going into details.

View Poll Results: If you were asked whether you own a gun by a pollster you would answer....
Yes, I own more than one even.	27	14.92%
Yes, (But refuse to answer about any details.)	40	22.10%
Refuse to answer the question.	76	41.99%
Guns,who has guns? No guns here! (or words to that effect)	38	20.99%
Voters: 181. You may not vote on this poll

March 17, 2013, 09:11 PM	#1
scrubcedar Senior Member Join Date: May 3, 2012 Location: Southwestern Colorado Posts: 507	Gun Ownership Poll Accuracy Folks, we've seen a lot of posts and threads about the accuracy of studies saying gun ownership is decreasing. First a few points from a man who used to take medical studies apart for a living. If you ask someone whether they own a gun and they answer yes you have not established whether they own a gun. You have not seen the gun, you have not touched, or in this time of air soft guns, established it is indeed a firearm. You have simply established that this person will answer yes to the question under certain circumstances. If they answer no, without a detailed investigation probably requiring many man hours, you certainly haven't established they don't own a gun. Even if you were to establish the facts one way or another you have simply gotten the right answer for that day. To help you understand how inaccurate this is I'm setting up an experiment. The Poll above is simple,"If you own a gun right now if a pollster asked you whether you own any guns you would-" __________________ Gaily bedight, A gallant knight In sunshine and in shadow, Had journeyed long, Singing a song, In search of El Dorado Last edited by scrubcedar; March 17, 2013 at 09:21 PM.

March 17, 2013, 09:36 PM	#2
K_Mac Senior Member Join Date: September 15, 2010 Posts: 1,850	There is not a snowball's chance in Honolulu that I would answer this question from a random pollster. Yes, I own guns. If you know me at all you don't have to ask; if you don't know me it is none of your bidness. __________________ "Any fool can criticize, condemn and complain and most fools do." Benjamin Franklin

March 17, 2013, 09:41 PM	#3
Spats McGee Staff Join Date: July 28, 2010 Location: Arkansas Posts: 8,821	I'm unlikely to answer any questions posed by random pollsters calling me, much less ones about what valuable possessions I might have in my home. Edited to add: I would probably answer a poll in which I contacted the pollsters, but not the other way around. I'm way too nervous about folks testing the waters to rob my house. Heck, I may be a little extreme, but I won't even verify security information on any inbound call, like from my bank. __________________ I'm a lawyer, but I'm not your lawyer. If you need some honest-to-goodness legal advice, go buy some. Last edited by Spats McGee; March 17, 2013 at 09:48 PM.

March 17, 2013, 09:49 PM	#4
Dr Big Bird PhD Senior Member Join Date: October 26, 2012 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 779	Never seen a gun before. __________________ I told the new me, "Meet me at the bus station and hold a sign that reads: 'Today is the first day of the rest of your life.'" But the old me met me with a sign that read: "Welcome back." Who you are is not a function of where you are. -Off Minor

March 17, 2013, 09:51 PM	#5
scrubcedar Senior Member Join Date: May 3, 2012 Location: Southwestern Colorado Posts: 507	I have a strong suspicion you two are representative. Which would inevitably lead to under-reporting strong enough to skew any poll numbers. __________________ Gaily bedight, A gallant knight In sunshine and in shadow, Had journeyed long, Singing a song, In search of El Dorado

March 17, 2013, 09:54 PM	#6
Spats McGee Staff Join Date: July 28, 2010 Location: Arkansas Posts: 8,821	I have a strong hunch that you are correct: gun ownership is probably very underreported/underrepresented for a variety of reasons. __________________ I'm a lawyer, but I'm not your lawyer. If you need some honest-to-goodness legal advice, go buy some.

March 17, 2013, 09:54 PM	#7
Fishing_Cabin Senior Member Join Date: February 10, 2010 Posts: 720	I answered with the "Guns, who has guns" bottom answer...I dont trust the pollsters not to be either a theif, or a friend of a theif. Also, from the looks of some of these polls, these pollsters are no friends either.

March 17, 2013, 10:01 PM	#8
Evan Thomas Senior Member Join Date: July 7, 2008 Location: Upper midwest Posts: 5,631	"I'm sorry, but I don't do polls." <hangs up> __________________ Never let anything mechanical know you're in a hurry.

March 17, 2013, 10:10 PM	#9
scrubcedar Senior Member Join Date: May 3, 2012 Location: Southwestern Colorado Posts: 507	If we can get enough response to this poll it occurs to me that it would be a useful thing to put in a link to a lawmaker on the fence. "This constituency is under-reported Senator, here's hoping it's not necessary for you to find out the hard way next election day." __________________ Gaily bedight, A gallant knight In sunshine and in shadow, Had journeyed long, Singing a song, In search of El Dorado

March 18, 2013, 05:19 AM	#13
2ndsojourn Senior Member Join Date: January 15, 2013 Location: South Jersey Posts: 1,416	^^^^ I agree. "I'm sorry, but I don't do polls." <hangs up> NOYB.

March 18, 2013, 06:40 AM	#14
Sport45 Senior Member Join Date: May 25, 1999 Location: Too close to Houston Posts: 4,196	I live in Texas. "Why are you calling, doesn't everyone have guns?" The vistor information centers are there at the border to issue one along with a road map if you need it. __________________ Proud member of the NRA and Texas State Rifle Association. Registered and active voter.

March 18, 2013, 03:46 PM	#15
scrubcedar Senior Member Join Date: May 3, 2012 Location: Southwestern Colorado Posts: 507	Almost 70% showing that they would not answer yes when asked by a pollster. Considering that most studies show between 35% and 50% think about what that means. __________________ Gaily bedight, A gallant knight In sunshine and in shadow, Had journeyed long, Singing a song, In search of El Dorado

March 18, 2013, 04:07 PM	#16
lcpiper Senior Member Join Date: May 15, 2011 Posts: 1,405	What's a polster? Really, I am over 50 and not once in my life have I been asked to take part in a poll? The closest I have come is a few mail-in or on-line surveys. I would probably refuse to respond. __________________ Colt M1911, AR-15 \| S&W Model 19, Model 27\| SIG P238 \| Berreta 85B Cheetah \| Ruger Blackhawk .357MAG, Bearcat "Shopkeeper" .22LR\| Remington Marine Magnum SP 12GA., Model 700 SPS .223

March 18, 2013, 04:15 PM	#17
draidt Member Join Date: February 3, 2013 Posts: 18	So what would be your answer if your primary care physician asked you this in a general check up or in a emergency room visit ? You know damn well a refusal to answer will be a mark in the yes column. Welcome to Obama care.

March 18, 2013, 04:20 PM	#18
lcpiper Senior Member Join Date: May 15, 2011 Posts: 1,405	Umm, I would walk out. No patient = no money = a rethinking of policy. __________________ Colt M1911, AR-15 \| S&W Model 19, Model 27\| SIG P238 \| Berreta 85B Cheetah \| Ruger Blackhawk .357MAG, Bearcat "Shopkeeper" .22LR\| Remington Marine Magnum SP 12GA., Model 700 SPS .223

March 18, 2013, 04:36 PM	#19
Spats McGee Staff Join Date: July 28, 2010 Location: Arkansas Posts: 8,821	Obamacare, however, is not the subject of this thread. __________________ I'm a lawyer, but I'm not your lawyer. If you need some honest-to-goodness legal advice, go buy some.

March 18, 2013, 04:53 PM	#20
Spats McGee Staff Join Date: July 28, 2010 Location: Arkansas Posts: 8,821	I have now gone through and deleted posts that I would characterize as off-topic bickering. Such bickering continued after my last warning regarding Obamacare. Either stay on-topic for this thread, or go find a thread where you can stay on topic. __________________ I'm a lawyer, but I'm not your lawyer. If you need some honest-to-goodness legal advice, go buy some.

March 18, 2013, 05:07 PM	#21
AllenJ Senior Member Join Date: December 11, 2009 Location: Northern California Posts: 1,766	I've been "polled" a couple of times in my life and I usually end up arguing with them. Stats are typically manipulated to say what the person paying for them wants, or never published when they can't be. A waste of time is what it boils down to in my opinion.

March 18, 2013, 05:17 PM	#23
sigcurious Senior Member Join Date: May 25, 2011 Posts: 1,755	I answered refuse to answer the question. However, that would be in the form of refusing to do the poll in the first place.

March 18, 2013, 05:24 PM	#24
Kreyzhorse Senior Member Join Date: April 12, 2006 Location: NKY Posts: 12,463	In this day and age of endless phone scams and assorted phishing schemes, I'm not answering any poll questions. __________________ "He who laughs last, laughs dead." Homer Simpson

March 18, 2013, 05:33 PM	#25
buck460XVR Senior Member Join Date: December 28, 2006 Posts: 4,342	If I knew it was a legitimate poll, I would have no problem answering yes without going into details.