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Old August 3, 2010, 08:47 AM   #1
ISC
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grey man

I don't think I've seen any threads on this topic before (at least not recently). I saw a recent thread asking why it was important not to print when carrying concealed though, and I wanted to carry it a step further.

Everyone's heard the old joke about the two squrrel hunters who confront a bear. They start running away and one tells the other, " We should just stop and try to hit it with our .22s, maybe we'll get lucky, there's no way we'll outrun it."

The other says, " I don't need to outrun the bear, I just need to outrun you!"

The first time I heard the term grey man was in reference to SERE school, where it is a survival technique when in captivity. Basically, the idea is not to stand out in any way that would bring attention to yourself. The idea is to blend into the background as much as possible so that you aren't targeted for special attention. The grey man blends into the shadows and is ignored. He is forgotten about and missed when any punishment or penalties are meted out.

Why is this something that is important for us to think about? Well, here's a couple situations where it could be important. It is unfortunately becoming increasingly common for people to be held as hostages/kidnapped by the drug cartels in the areas bordering Mexico or by car jackers in many major urban areas. There have been many bank robberies and terrorist attacks where hostage taking was a key element.

Home invasions as well as robberies that begin as burglaries where the thief thinks he's entering an unoccupied home or business happen all the time.

People are mugged or held up on the street often too. I have a couple thoughts on that. The first is that the grey man doesn't look like a weak target that invites attention, nor does he look like a hard target that might cause an assailant to be more cautious vigilant, and violent in his attack.

I'm reminded of the Seabee years ago that was discovered on a hijacked flight that was killed by the hijackers because (it was speculated) they considered him a greater risk. When I fly I try to remember to keep my military ID in my pocket instead of my wallet, in part, because of this.

Ideally, an attacker would choose a different victim that seems like a more inviting target (i.e. more wealthy, less aware of their surroundings, more susceptible). Since sometimes there's little or nothing one can do to prevent an attack, by not appearing to be a hard target, a thief or robber is less likely to shoot first and just retrieve your wallet from your bleeding body.

Having a bumper sticker or sign on your truck or home that says, "protected by smith and wesson" is advertising that your vehicle is more likely to have a weapon in it and invites it to be broken into.

Can anyone else offer some thoughts on this concept and on ways to minimize your profile?
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Old August 3, 2010, 09:04 AM   #2
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nor does he look like a hard target that might cause an assailant to be more cautious vigilant, and violent in his attack
Here's another school of thought: logically, the assailant/kidnapper will likely choose the path of least resistance. If they see a man in an NRA hat who doesn't appear to be a stranger to the gym, and a "grey man" minding his own business, they will not decide to make their life hell and go for the NRA man.

Of course you make a solid point too.. if the NRA man is the only target, or events narrow the assailants choice down to the NRA man, he may be more violent/strategic with his attack.

I would say it's a matter of just how formidable a target you are. I prefer to stand out and sport the NRA logo, Glock logo, MMA shirt, etc.. just to appear as a much more difficult target. I obviously don't make it blatantly egotistical because that alone is inviting.
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Old August 3, 2010, 09:14 AM   #3
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I've been a police officer since April 1981. And, even though I like my job, there is NO F.O.P. memorobilia on my vehicle, I don't wear "police" shirts or hats and I don't tell people out in public that I'm always armed.

I do confess to wearing a "Springfield Armory" ball cap every once in a while. Only once has it started a conversation. I was in a store and one of the salesmen was making small talk with us. The guy then flat out asked me "Do you like .45's?" I said "Yes, how did you know?" He pointed at my hat, which I had totally forgotten about!

I've posted this before.....I'm very proud of the fact that nobody ever notices that I'm carrying a pistol. I take great care not to give away any "tells" and it's become second nature over the years. BUT, I got "careless" and forgot about that ol' SA hat! Had that salesman been someone else with other intentions, who knows? I can see some situations where that may also act as a deterant to someone who is thinking about doing something "illegal".

Very good subject for a thread ISC. And I thank you, sir, for serving our country!
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Old August 3, 2010, 11:44 AM   #4
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Let me clarify.. I don't conceal carry because I'm not 21 yet and live in Illinois

I just don't shy away from sporting the logos I love
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Old August 3, 2010, 12:08 PM   #5
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I wear a suit & tie 80% of the time.. no room for logos. Even when wearing khakis or jeans and a t-shirt, I stay away from logo apparel. 6'1", slender but well-built 185lbs, neat haircut and clean shave.

So speculate as you will as to what's in my wallet, in my waistband, on my ankle, in my pocket, how often I work out, and what I might do when confronted. Just remember, curiosity killed the cat.

Grey man? Yes, deep grey.
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Old August 3, 2010, 12:51 PM   #6
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I think a good portion of being avoided as a target is to look somewhat menacing or intimidating. I often wear black button up military cut shirts. combined with either black jeans or dark camo cargo pants. and some big ol boots. I think my boots give me maybe an extra inch, so that brings me up to 6'1" when I'm standing comfortably straight.(I don't slouch at all)

I always carry myself in a confident manner, I walk tall, take long steps (easy with long legs), walk fairly quickly as though I always have a plan to get somewhere.

My wife tells me I'm very stoic, and hard to read, That I always have a straight face, and will not be fazed by anything at all. Sometimes she says I walk around looking like I'm angry at someone and going to give them whatfor.

When out and about, I try to be subtle about scanning of people. I will look at every person passing by to determine where they will be heading, and where they are looking. If I see anyone eying me suspiciously, I visually engage them and eyeball them back.I have only had to do this a handful of times. Ive noticed everyone is wondering around doing their own thing, oblivious to their surroundings, and thusly me. If a person is walking directly towards me, I keep on my path, not backing down or moving out of their way. if they are off to the side, I stare at them until they either realize they are walking right at me, or they decide coming up to me is not such a good idea. either way if they innocently walk into me, it's easily passed off as an accident.

I don't go out of my way to walk into people, or shoot daggers from my eyes. I use those as responses to people who are suspiciously checking me or my family out. I'm hyper aware, and highly responsive, but subtly.

I suppose growing up in Johannesburg, South Africa, a lot of this got ingrained into me, not by choice I might add.

Carrying yourself in a confident and aware manner will do more than wearing social camouflage. being hard to read will make you a less desirable target. Seeing people staring and staring back ends those engagements. its the ones that don't stop staring that you have to worry about!

Be confident, not cocky. looking big and imposing, or maybe even scary helps too.

This is just my experience, YMMV ( I finally got to use that)
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Old August 3, 2010, 01:38 PM   #7
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Dre and dan both bring up good points. I think that the situation dictates the stance you project. If you are in a bad neighborhood where you appear different than the locals (gang area, crime area, ghetto, slums etc), you're very presence invites attention. If you're strutting around like billy badas the locals will take it as a challenge and you are inviting trouble.

I think of it as the difference between assertive and aggressive.
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Old August 3, 2010, 01:56 PM   #8
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I go a different route than most, while sharing some similarities to those who have already responded. I try to embrace the gray man to the ninth degree. I drive a modest albeit modern car of a neutral color. My clothes are subtle with the exception being good, durable shoes in a medium price range. The clothes are somewhat loose as well, to hide my frame and CCW gear (I'm 5'9" on a good day and do body fitness competitions so I'm a stocky fellow. For carry it's a Springer CCO, a spare mag, and a Benchmade).

Everyone gets a once-over (attitude, posture, eye contact, scan of possible CCW places, etc), but I'm not hostile about it. If someone is making eye contact with me I stare at just one of their eyes (makes them extremely uncomfortable) until eye contact is broken (maybe a second or two). Watch you flanks and your tail and you'll be okay. The trick is to do it without looking like a villian in an 80's spy thriller.

Practice and get a feel for the areas you frequent the most. No one ever remembers the Postman or the Clerk at a Subway.

As Dre said "Confident, not cocky."

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Old August 3, 2010, 02:38 PM   #9
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Today 01:51 PM
Dre_sa I think a good portion of being avoided as a target is to look somewhat menacing or intimidating. I often wear black button up military cut shirts. combined with either black jeans or dark camo cargo pants. and some big ol boots. I think my boots give me maybe an extra inch, so that brings me up to 6'1" when I'm standing comfortably straight.(I don't slouch at all)

I always carry myself in a confident manner, I walk tall, take long steps (easy with long legs), walk fairly quickly as though I always have a plan to get somewhere.

My wife tells me I'm very stoic, and hard to read, That I always have a straight face, and will not be fazed by anything at all. Sometimes she says I walk around looking like I'm angry at someone and going to give them whatfor.

When out and about, I try to be subtle about scanning of people. I will look at every person passing by to determine where they will be heading, and where they are looking. If I see anyone eying me suspiciously, I visually engage them and eyeball them back.I have only had to do this a handful of times. Ive noticed everyone is wondering around doing their own thing, oblivious to their surroundings, and thusly me. If a person is walking directly towards me, I keep on my path, not backing down or moving out of their way. if they are off to the side, I stare at them until they either realize they are walking right at me, or they decide coming up to me is not such a good idea. either way if they innocently walk into me, it's easily passed off as an accident.

I don't go out of my way to walk into people, or shoot daggers from my eyes. I use those as responses to people who are suspiciously checking me or my family out. I'm hyper aware, and highly responsive, but subtly.

I suppose growing up in Johannesburg, South Africa, a lot of this got ingrained into me, not by choice I might add.

Carrying yourself in a confident and aware manner will do more than wearing social camouflage. being hard to read will make you a less desirable target. Seeing people staring and staring back ends those engagements. its the ones that don't stop staring that you have to worry about!

Be confident, not cocky. looking big and imposing, or maybe even scary helps too.

This is just my experience, YMMV ( I finally got to use that)

This is one of the all-time best posts I've read here. That describes so many of us, at least in my opinion. My inner-circle of friends and I conduct ourselves almost exactly as Dre described! It seems to work too.
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Old August 3, 2010, 03:10 PM   #10
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My inner-circle of friends and I conduct ourselves almost exactly as Dre described!
Not to be disparaging, because I acknowledge the vast differences between people's region, lifestyle, upbringing, etc. But, really? I mean I lived in the midwest for a while and wore jeans & boots for years, but never got suited up like that. It just seems like another "uniform."
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Old August 3, 2010, 03:20 PM   #11
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Not sure where I would fall in everyones op... but.. I DO carry all of the time. And most of the time its not hard to tell that I do have a full size on my right side,,and sometimes one on both sides. I dont act tough, dont like to fight, dont look for trouble...but.. On one side, if confronted by police, I am well within my rights to carry concealed, and would act accordingly. On the other side,,If someone IS looking for an easy score... I DONT think they would focus on someone who is nearly 6' tall, 210 lbs, that is obviously carrying one, and maybe two concealed handguns. I feel better with others knowing that I am carrying at all times. I think it discourages others from starting trouble... Just my OP...whether right or wrong.
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Old August 3, 2010, 03:28 PM   #12
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There's good publicity and bad publicity... you go rob a bank, whose your biggest threat... the armed uniformed guard.... if your house has signs like BEWARE OF DOG, alarm systems warning, pro gun owner signs... then a thief may choose to go to the next house.

Pick and choose your Advertising... sometimes it helps and works for you, and sometimes it doesn't and works against you.
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Old August 3, 2010, 04:44 PM   #13
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I have never had to deal with this kind of situation, on this level anyways. But I think it all depends who the attack is. If he wants to try and be the tough guy he might pick the biggest guy, if he wants to get his money as quick as he can he goes for the smallest guy. The trick is being neither, the grey man. Although I think if some guy wants to carjack someone (if he has any sense at all) will not try to steal the truck with bumper sticks like "NRA" or "insured by Colt" or "Keep honking I'm reloading" etc. They are gonna try to hijack the "Soccer mom" or "My son is an honor student". Sometimes they forget that the soccer mom could be carrying just as easy
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Old August 3, 2010, 05:48 PM   #14
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I'm just thinking that I can guess whose truck would be most likely to be broken into at walmart or in the parking lot at work.

I am also thinking that if a person were bent on homocide or even just dominating a crowd until the point when action is taken, they'd start by picking out the likely "trouble makers" and watch them with extra attention, with the intention of preventing him from making his move.

I can understand the reasoning for cultivating an aura of intimidation, although I think purposefully standing out by poorly concealing a gun is somewhere between overconfident and foolhardy. It sounds like a good way to get stopped and questioned by the good guys as well as turning a bump on the sidewalk from an "excuse me" situation into a shoot out with the bad guys.

Last edited by ISC; August 3, 2010 at 07:23 PM.
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Old August 3, 2010, 05:58 PM   #15
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The "grey man" concept is fine, until you are in a bank, jewelry store or some other location with multiple "grey men" there too. At that point, it will be something else - the way you're looking at him/them, body language, blading your body, flexed knees... that singles you out as "the one" to engage in some manner.

In the late 70's, researchers filmed about a dozen people walking along on a NYC street. Mixed in with the dozen were four "ringers" to gauge results. The results were interesting when shown to felons in prison. Researchers wanted to know how felons with records of violent attacks (robberies, muggings, strong-arm/purse snatching, etc.) picked their targets.

What they found was pretty much what you expected.
- "Targets" always seemed to be in "condition white" - oblivious to surroundings.
- "Targets" tend to walk head down or look straight ahead.
- Most "targets" slumped or bent over slightly as they walked.
- Few people looked behind them as they walked.
- Almost no one turned their head as the [concealed] camera passed.

More importantly, they found out why some people were NOT chosen as targets. Some of these reasons were...
- Eyes up and moving side to side -- to wary of what was ahead of them
- Confident stride, especially with "a spring in their step" (fit, able-bodied)
- Walking erect - spine straight - indicated inner strength & power.
- Constant vigilance - the one who looked at those passing or behind them ocassionaly.

These were consisten across felons in three different prisons. One of the "ringers" was an older, gray haired Asian man whom the dressed in different clothes to change his appearance. When walking slowly and not looking around, he was chosen every time as a victim. The same man in a suit, walking his normal vigorous walk was passed by. One felon described him as walkling like "a man afraid of very little". That man was also a 59-year old martial arts dojo. Keen perception on a subliminal basis?

About 38% chose a particular "little old lady" pulling her little grocery cart half filled. One claimed that knocking it over will distract her because she'll be worried about her good. Another said she did look around a lot, but would be a weak opponent. These missed other cues. The old woman's head was down, but she followed the feet of people passing her. And she'd look ahead for a few seconds before resuming the bent stance. Only one noticed her running shoes but dismissed it (her socks were loose). This old woman would stop every 100 ft or so and put her back the wall to "rest" while watching people and seldom looked in to shops. In fact, she was a 40-y/o police woman "decoy". The ones who avoided her pointed out she lifted her feet a bit too much and seemed "more alert" than most grannies.

The favorite one was the "pudgy guy" -- looked like the middle-aged donut lover. He was "camoflaged" like the little-old-lady with padding under his suit. When he appeared in jeans and a t-shirt, almost all the felons took a pass on him. And for good reason. He was a recently discharged Marine instructor, but as "pudgy guy" he seemed to be a "soft" target vs. the muscularly built young guy.

Walking erect, with a confident stride isn't possible for everyone. Bad knees, ankles or some other ailment can alter that. But the head-on-a-swivel and alertness to your surroundings means they lose the element of surprise. Or they have to devise new surprise tactics -- "gotta match?"

Being alert to your surroundings will keep most thugs at bay because they cannot approach unseen or unexpectedly. If their prey suddenly turns their back to a wall and waits for the attack, there's sure to be some nasty surprise waiting.
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Old August 3, 2010, 06:07 PM   #16
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Today 04:10 PM
booker_t Quote:
My inner-circle of friends and I conduct ourselves almost exactly as Dre described!

Not to be disparaging, because I acknowledge the vast differences between people's region, lifestyle, upbringing, etc. But, really? I mean I lived in the midwest for a while and wore jeans & boots for years, but never got suited up like that. It just seems like another "uniform."
Booker,
Read it again. "Conduct ourselves"...like that, not DRESS UP LIKE THAT. It's how you act or comport yourself, that's what I was refering to.

You wear your suit, Dre wears his boots, military shirt, etc., I wear blue jeans, t-shirt and tennis shoes. But we have the same or similar mind set.

I didn't take your post as "disparaging" either. We're brothers here. You know, same side and all!
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Old August 3, 2010, 06:57 PM   #17
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Although I had never heard of the concept, . . . I have and will probably continue to at times adopt the "grey man" attitude. This is especially true when I am out with my wife or church friends or family, . . . I tend to go to the side and/or back of the restaurant, near an exit, where I can see most if not all of the area around me.

Then I try to blend in with the walls, just in case.

OTOH, . . . alone and out and about, . . . I try to emit a self reliant, "spring in the step" and confident attitude. Often as not, either my USMC cover is on my head with my USN E6 badge on its front, . . . or one of my cowboy hats, . . . with the hope that they'll look for easier prey.

I totally resist NRA stickers, hats, Colt logo's etc, . . . especially bumper or window stickers. To me, it is an invitation to bust out a window looking for goodies to steal.

May God bless,
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Old August 3, 2010, 07:09 PM   #18
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I think a good portion of being avoided as a target is to look somewhat menacing or intimidating. I always carry myself in a confident manner, I walk tall, take long steps (easy with long legs), walk fairly quickly as though I always have a plan to get somewhere.

My wife tells me I'm very stoic, and hard to read, That I always have a straight face, and will not be fazed by anything at all. Sometimes she says I walk around looking like I'm angry at someone and going to give them whatfor.
That pretty much describes me. I can't realistically be "the grey man" being 6'4" and 260lbs, so I go the other way altogether, wearing plenty of NRA attire and firearm logoed shirts. It may someday bite me in the rear, say, if I ever have the misfortune to be in a mass-hostage situation or the like, but even in my area of very near Detroit, the reverse has been the rule. During my entire life, I've had only a few close calls which were thwarted with the implication of having a gun and never a revelation. I've had several aquaintences of minimal size that haven't been so lucky. And during a friendly chat with a bank teller, I was told that I was "not at all as I generally appeared" and when asked how I generally appeared she replied, "Oh, I don't know, pi$$ed off at the world, maybe?" The twinkle in her eye more than made up for any lack of professionalism. I told her I never show all my cards until they're paid for.
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Old August 4, 2010, 11:06 AM   #19
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For knowledge and perspective...(see below)

This is long... but I promise that my post has merit.

I'm going to do something unorthodoxed here and apply a canopy thought process that has served me well through the years. It is the Rule and Exception philosophy; or a bit of it anyway.

To every situation that we discuss here, one can apply the Rule and Exception philosophy; whether it be the infamous caliber wars, tactical engagement, shot placement, weapon selection, open-carry vs concealed-carry, and yes, even this "Grey Man" discussion.

To every tactical situation or perceivable personal choice, there is a generally excepted rule and there are an infinite number of exceptions to that rule ranging widely in likelihood and ridiculousness; leaving it up to the individual which exceptions, if any, they think most closely fit their needs and lifestyle.

For the caliber wars, the general rule is: Regardless of caliber, when faced with a human threat and using reliable modern self defense ammunition, a few well-placed shots to COM is the most effective and efficient way of accomplishing a neutralization of a human threat with very little variance." The exceptions of this rule are based around how widely you can vary this simple scenario from the toxicology of the threat, need for greater amount of ammunition, biases against manufacturers, etc... All of these exceptions bring to the table different variations of the rule, but the rule still remains. If you want to take down a person who is attacking you, draw whatever handgun you prefer and put a few shots in or immediately around the center of their chest. As a general rule, this will work with very little variance.
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For this application in the Grey Man situation, the general rule that applies is the following:
"Criminals avoid conflict and are generally experts in victimology; meaning that in a random and unweighted encounter when faced with a seemingly weak and unaware target or a target that seems to be able to offer resistance if things go badly, the criminal will choose the easy target. Why? Because it offers the most payout with the minimum risk. This is what the criminal wants: target (money, items, etc...) + to get away.

The Premise of your Grey Man scenario is an Exception to this rule.

Quote:
The idea is to blend into the background as much as possible so that you aren't targeted for special attention. The grey man blends into the shadows and is ignored. He is forgotten about and missed when any punishment or penalties are meted out.
This scenario of punishment and penalties being meted out is a factor is a crime in which the criminal is Personally Invested, meaning it is a Weighted Encounter that involves the criminal being after something other than his target and his escape; he is personally invested in giving special punishment and penalty. This is not your common criminal, and statistically, this is a much more rare occurrence that the philosophy of "blending in" tends to support, offering a way to "deflect negative attention by remaining unremarkable to the viewer". And in that respect, the philosophy has merit.

What you must understand is that your entire scenario is extremely weighted in that you have set specific parameters for the criminal encounter.

1. The criminal is statistically novel and is personally invested in the crime.
2. The crime encounter is novel and lasts longer than is statistically likely.
3. The criminal is specifically set on administering special negative treatment and is looking for victims in a novel and statistically irrelevant way.

When taking these factors into consideration, then yes, this philosophy of Blending In will help to deflect attention from yourself. But the General Rule that will statistically serve you much better in the long run states that:

1. The criminal will be garden-variety and want 2 things: Target + Escape.
2. The crime encounter will be over quickly, lasting only a few seconds.
3. The criminal will choose their victims based on likelihood of high payout + minimal risk of danger, resistance, or capture.
4. Anything deviating from these premises is therefore novel and thus the likelihood of their occurrence is inversely related to how many exceptions are applied to this rule.

When taking these factors into consideration, we can see that by looking like you are not an easy target both physically and behaviorally, you are much less likely to get ANY type of negative attention from the much more statistically likely criminals that you will encounter, thus serving to decrease your overall personal conflicts much more efficiently.


Just my .02
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Old August 4, 2010, 11:24 AM   #20
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I'm not sure I agree with all of the conclusions that many of you have came to here, but it appears that alot of thought went into the different opinions. This has been a good discussion.
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Old August 4, 2010, 11:30 AM   #21
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I grew up in what is known as Fort Apache in the South Bronx of New York City. One thing that teaches you is how to exude a presence of "don't mess with me." That "attitude" served me very well negotiating life in NYC. I can recall many instances in which the way I carried myself, angry, purposeful, and in a hurry to get somewhere has caused a perceived threat to look elsewhere. It helps to have that look about you. My kids friends have often told them that I must be a secret service agent. They notice the way I carry myself, search and assess, etc.... I am not overly tall but I work out almost every day of the week. A guy in the gym came up to me recently and said I looked like an "assassin" and there was no way he'd mess with me. Interestingly enough though I believe those same attributes would be detrimental to me in a hostage situation. The BGs would definitely neutralize folks that would possibly be a threat to take action against them and I would be one of the ones they'd put down.
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Old August 4, 2010, 10:53 PM   #22
JackL
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I don't see any point in trying to look menacing, because I'm 5'6" and built like a bald (OK, shaved) badger.

Apparently there's something offputting about badgers, though, because as a rule I don't attract trouble. Maybe it's the "head on a swivel" thing; maybe it's the fact that my stylistic tastes just run towards photographer's vests and engineer boots. Maybe it's something else, or a combination of things involving dress, posture, and movement. I don't know, but I am not a Tough Guy (TM), "Type A personality", or any other easily pigeonholed pop-psych stereotype. Still, people tell me that the social vibe I put out ranges from "do not touch" to "will eat your face".

I can do the 3D Wallpaper thing too, or the On Stage thing. It all depends on the setting.
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Old August 5, 2010, 01:50 AM   #23
Olibobwa
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I'm a fan of the Rope-a-dope myself.
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Old August 6, 2010, 02:19 PM   #24
BillCA
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LT,

Good discussion and it seems you thought about some of these factors too. Not to quibble too much but your conclusion that being selected involves a criminal that is "statistically novel" and is "specifically set on administering special negative treatment" hits a sour note with me.

Your quote was...

Quote:
What you must understand is that your entire scenario is extremely weighted in that you have set specific parameters for the criminal encounter.

1. The criminal is statistically novel and is personally invested in the crime.
2. The crime encounter is novel and lasts longer than is statistically likely.
3. The criminal is specifically set on administering special negative treatment and is looking for victims in a novel and statistically irrelevant way.

When taking these factors into consideration, then yes, this philosophy of Blending In will help to deflect attention from yourself. But the General Rule that will statistically serve you much better in the long run states that:

1. The criminal will be garden-variety and want 2 things: Target + Escape.
2. The crime encounter will be over quickly, lasting only a few seconds.
3. The criminal will choose their victims based on likelihood of high payout + minimal risk of danger, resistance, or capture.
4. Anything deviating from these premises is therefore novel and thus the likelihood of their occurrence is inversely related to how many exceptions are applied to this rule.

When taking these factors into consideration, we can see that by looking like you are not an easy target both physically and behaviorally, you are much less likely to get ANY type of negative attention from the much more statistically likely criminals that you will encounter, thus serving to decrease your overall personal conflicts much more efficiently.
First, I posit that any criminal is personally invested in the crime he commits against another person. His belief is that he will control you through fear and you will thus do what he wants (hand over wallet). If you disrespect him, laugh at him, he may then injure you out of anger.

The "grey man" relies on the school-of-fish theory that if you blend in to the crowd or background, when the predator strikes, he is likely to select a closer, gaudy or eye-catching target. You are virtually unnoticed or indistinguishable as a unique individual amonst many. On the other hand, if you are walking alone or one of only a few, you may be selected anyhow.

This will work on the street where the predator is looking for someone who stands out as successful or having money -- or at least likely to have valuables. It also works should you be in a grocery (liquor or convenience) store that's being robbed. You look like the unassuming Joe who isn't a hero or a big threat to his actions.

I agree that we are most likely to meet the garden variety thief who wants your watch and wallet. But we must also guard against being too visible when that statistical oddity comes along -- the guy who comes into Dwight's church to assassinate his ex-wife and her family; or as recently happened target specific people at his employer. In those cases, you want to "blend in" or appear to be "low threat" to him. That way, when his focus is elsewhere you can hopefully end the conflict rapidly.
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