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February 5, 2013, 07:42 AM | #26 | ||
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Join Date: July 28, 2010
Location: Arkansas
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Quote:
Quote:
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February 5, 2013, 09:36 AM | #27 |
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My bad. AZ Arizona. Not paying enough attention while multi tasking.
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February 5, 2013, 09:53 AM | #28 |
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Join Date: July 28, 2010
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Fair enough. You are far from the first to make that mistake.
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February 7, 2013, 11:33 AM | #29 |
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Here's yet another revision...
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0XD...it?usp=sharing This added three columns from the Wikipedia page for the three most common restrictive laws- FOID style permits to purchase, Assault Weapons Bans, and May Issue Carry laws. If the law was on the books, but not enforced, or not statewide, I counted it. For example Denver has an AWB but Colorado does not. One of the states was noted as having May Issue permit laws that functioned as Shall Issue based on current enforcement. This gave me some REALLY interesting results, and pointed out a REALLY interesting result I'd been missing so far. In the TOTAL homicide column, the permissive states are higher. In the Firearm homicide column, the rates are lower. When you divide based on any restrictive laws in our list, the permissive states have a higher homicide count. Firearms homicides are exactly the same- AND the same as the national average- before any state is divided out for its laws. Edit: Whoops, I didn't count Colorado... ReEdit: Double Whoops. I did count them, they're Row 9 in the formulas. They just didn't get color coded. |
February 7, 2013, 11:51 AM | #30 |
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Also adding the three missing states has swung the average over to the restrictive states on the previous breakdowns such that the restrictive states have lower rates. But I also see that has changed the formulas to the earlier stuff, and I have to fix it, so wait for hte next upload and link.
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February 7, 2013, 01:52 PM | #31 |
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Can anyone get to http://www.acjic.alabama.gov/cia/2011_cia.pdf or find an updated link the Alabama state Uniform Crime Reports pdf? Its now giving me 404 errors.
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February 7, 2013, 02:56 PM | #32 |
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Join Date: August 13, 2007
Location: Alabama
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Alabama UCR
The index page is at:
http://www.acjic.alabama.gov/page-cia with the 2011 page at: http://www.acjic.alabama.gov/file-2011_cia.pdf AFM |
February 7, 2013, 04:08 PM | #33 |
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While I was waiting, I did the same with 2010 data... link is https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0XD...it?usp=sharing
One PDF is the basic form. The other two, I pulled out the Permissive vs Restrictive totals, and sorted the whole sheet on firearms homicide rate. The "bad" half (25 of 51) had 10 of the 18 restrictive jurisdictions. 6 of the top 10 on the bad half were permissive. Flipped and sorted the other way, 11 of the top 12 were permissive. None had extremely high populations. I'll be adding a population density column in the near future though. I eyeballed the page on the Census website with pop density, and just eyeballing, my gut says it'll be suggestive but not definitive. Stronger correlations are geographical- states that were Confederate, or border states with Confederate leanings litter the top of the "Bad" list. States so far west they weren't even a state in 1860 dominate the "good" list. Last edited by JimDandy; February 7, 2013 at 04:48 PM. |
February 8, 2013, 01:06 PM | #34 |
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Location: Vancouver, WA
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Jim, this is great stuff. It's pretty clear that strict gun laws don't create a "safer" state.
What is blurring the picture of your data is the city-level data: New Orleans, St Louis, Miami, and Richmond are all in the permissive states. The anti's like to point to these states as proof that we need more gun control. Looks like your data will refute that though. Keep up the good work. It would be good to figure out how to control for the effect of the cities... Source: http://www.theatlanticcities.com/nei...violence/4171/ |
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