The Firing Line Forums

Go Back   The Firing Line Forums > The Conference Center > General Discussion Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old April 11, 2013, 06:38 PM   #1
Aguila Blanca
Senior Member
 
Join Date: September 25, 2008
Location: CONUS
Posts: 6,403
Basic math

In reading about both the Sandy Hook massacre and all the political fallout from the incident, I keep coming back to the characterizations of the rifle used as a "military style assault weapon," and "designed to fire as many bullets as possible in a short time. And, of course, the demonization of "large capacity" magazines. I finally decided to look at what the numbers really tell us.

The Connecticut State Police have been sitting on a lot of the information they have uncovered, but recent articles have finally confirmed that the shooter fired 154 rounds of .223 (unless it was 145 -- the State Police math on that doesn't add up) and that six magazines were used in all (not all shot to empty). And a very recent article indicates that the Connecticut State Police now think the shooter had no more than five minutes from the start of the attack to when he ended his own life.

So -- 154 shots evenly spaced over 5 minutes (or 300 seconds) works out to 0.51 shots per second, or one shot every 1.96 seconds. In standard terms, the rate of fire is 30.6 rounds per minute. That's hardly machine gun speed.

But wait ... if he used six magazines and the last was in the rifle when it was recovered, there were five magazine swaps. We can't know how long those took. We know the kid probably practiced, but he was still probably not quite in Travis Tomasie territory. To be conservative, let's allow five seconds for each magazine swap. That reduces the actual time available for shooting to 275 seconds. The average rate of fire is now 154 / 275, which gives us 0.56 shots per second. That translates to one shot every 1.79 seconds. In standard terms, the rate of fire is 33.6 rounds per minute. Still not exactly up there with even a slow machine gun.

To take it a step further, suppose all the kid had had available was 10-shot magazines. That would have meant 15 magazine changes, which at five seconds per would have deducted 75 seconds from his shooting time. So the rate of fire would then have been 154 / 225, which is .68 rounds per second, or one round every 1.47 seconds. In standard terms, the rate of fire would then be 40.8 rounds per minute.

If I remember correctly from my Vietnam days, I believe the rate of fire for the M16 was something on the order of 800 rounds per minute (at least, until the pencil barrel melted). What's the rate of fire for an M4 carbine? I'm sure it's orders of magnitude greater than 40 rounds per minute.

More importantly, the difference between the actual average rate of fire with 30-round magazines and the projected rate of fire with 10-round magazines simply does NOT support the anti-gunners' claims that ten-round magazines would have saved lives at Sandy Hook. When real bullets are flying, the difference between 33 rounds per minute and 40 rounds per minute just doesn't mean much.
Aguila Blanca is offline  
Old April 11, 2013, 07:09 PM   #2
doofus47
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 9, 2010
Location: live in a in a house when i'm not in a tent
Posts: 1,298
The long and short of Sandy Hook, and I'm a bad man to say this, is "that school wasn't prepared for this."
1 year after a crazy frenchman walked into a hebrew school in marsailles and shot dead a student.
A dozen years after Columbine.
Still they had NO PLAN for this eventuality. They had time to trigger a pa system from the main office. Most people reported hearing shouting and cursing and 'pops' on the pa speaker from the office. They had time to make a "shooter in the building; lock all doors" message over the pa system. But they didn't, b/c they didn't have a plan.

If 20 kids had died in a fire b/c there was no escape plan, we'd be hearing about how bad that school was prepared.

I'm just speaking my mind... I"m often wrong, but I like to find problems in the existing system not to point fingers, but to find solutions. This was a problem no one has addressed (as far as I know).
__________________
I'm right about the metric system 3/4 of the time.
doofus47 is offline  
Old April 11, 2013, 07:12 PM   #3
SPEMack618
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 21, 2010
Location: Central Georgia
Posts: 1,424
When I read of the mags found and shots fired, my immediate thought was that the shooter was doing a "tactical reload" after every batch of shooting.

I find it sickening, mainly because that is something done in first person shooter games to ensure your mag doesn't run dry in a virtual firefight. Most video games automatically consolidate your half empty mags as you do your virtual reload.

I'm not trying to indite violent video games, I just think this serves as an indictment of how detached the shooter was from reality.
__________________
NRA Life Member
Big Sister: "You should be sponsored by Allen"
Me: "If you can't shoot good, at least look good walking to the firing line."
Big Sister: "Can you not afford a Pelican? Then buy an Allen gun bag."
SPEMack618 is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 12:36 AM   #4
dakota.potts
Senior Member
 
Join Date: February 25, 2013
Location: Saint Augustine, Florida
Posts: 1,164
Well, if you think you have more ammo then you need, a reload of that sort makes sense. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions about it.
dakota.potts is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 01:49 AM   #5
Metal god
Senior Member
 
Join Date: April 10, 2012
Location: San Diego CA
Posts: 1,989
I did a Magpul MBUS on a gas block heat test a few months back
http://thefiringline.com/forums/show...mbus+gas+block

all I can say is , Its no problem shooting 100 rounds in under 90 seconds accurately . I'm in CA so that means 10 mag changes with the bullet button slowing me down cus I need a tool to release the mag . I was not trying to shoot as fast as I could cus I was running a test with my red dot at the same time . The 10 round mag limit is silly to me but what I think and know does not seem to matter
__________________
As of this date 8-18-14 at 6:42am I became a proud grandfather I guess I'm officially old
Metal god is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 04:41 AM   #6
thallub
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 20, 2007
Location: South Western OK
Posts: 2,093
The day before he killed 26 kids and teachers, Adam Lanza had an altercation with four teachers at Sandy Hook school. Three of those teachers were killed during Lanza's bloody rampage.

20 year Adam Lanza goes to Sandy Hook school where he argued with four teachers. The incident was not reported to police: Or was it?

http://www.bellenews.com/2012/12/15/...fore-massacre/
thallub is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 06:30 AM   #7
foxytwo
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 24, 2010
Posts: 184
If the teacher that lunged at him when he came in would have had a gun it might be possible that no one would have been hurt, except the shooter.
foxytwo is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 08:48 AM   #8
kraigwy
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 16, 2008
Location: Wyoming
Posts: 9,444
Use to shoot a lot of Infantry Trophy Matches or Rattle Battle.

You start out at 600 yards firing as many rounds as you can in 50 seconds then move to 500, then 300, then 200.

600 & 500 yards was prone, 300 kneeling, and standing at 200. We started out with 6 shooters and 384 rounds.

The farther the hits the more points so you tended to try to get your rounds off at 600 & 500 yards, plus you had multiple targets.

We used 20 round magazines in M14s but only loaded 18 rounds per mag.

I could average 36 rounds in 50 seconds, careful aimed shots. That's 1.38 shots per second. So if I had 300 seconds I could get off 414 rounds, that is with changing magazines every 18 rounds.

I think I could have fired much faster at shorter ranges, but it takes time to shoot "aimed" shots at 600 yards.

You could speed that up using ARs, AR's are faster to load them M14's because you have to physically pull the magazine from the M14 where the mag falls from the AR when you push the button.

-----------------------------------------------------------------

That's not the problem, you can play games with numbers until you're blue in the face.
My contention is regardless of what type of gun used, you can do a lot of damage in under 8 minutes.

Why 8 minutes???? Do a google on Police Response time. You get varying numbers, when I did it, I got everywhere from 20 to 8 minutes (depending on where you were).

Not blaming the police, they can't instantly appear, it takes time. You have to call 911, the operator that to analyze the call and get it over the radio. Then the police have to drive to the location. Plus, depending on the departments policy, how long does it take to stage, and enter the school.

Look at the Clackamas County Mall shooting a couple days before Newton.

The Clackamas County Sheriff's office is one block from the mall, yet the shooter got several shots off killing and injuring people, it wasn't until he shot himself after confronting a guy with a pistol.

Police got there after it was over.

No Sir, I'm with the NRA on this, the only way to stop a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.
__________________
Kraig Stuart
CPT USAR Ret
USAMU Sniper School Oct '78
Distinguished Rifle Badge 1071
kraigwy is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 09:49 AM   #9
Vanya
Staff
 
Join Date: July 7, 2008
Location: Upper midwest
Posts: 3,877
Quote:
Originally Posted by thallub
The day before he killed 26 kids and teachers, Adam Lanza had an altercation with four teachers at Sandy Hook school. Three of those teachers were killed during Lanza's bloody rampage.
That's a report from the day after the shooting. There were all sorts of rumors flying around in the immediate aftermath, many of which were inaccurate.The original NBC News story (on which the linked one is based) states that police were investigating a report that "someone" had such an altercation. If there's a recent story confirming this, it's relevant, otherwise, not so much.

[MOD HAT]As noted in the sticky on this, staff has decided to allow some discussion of the Sandy Hook case. That said, please limit it to what is actually known about what happened -- there's no point in dredging up outdated reports such as this, and rumors, speculation, and "what-ifs" are off-topic.[/MOD HAT]
__________________
"Once the writer in every individual comes to life (and that time is not far off), we are in for an age of universal deafness and lack of understanding."
(Milan Kundera, Book of Laughter and Forgetting, 1980)
Vanya is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 10:34 AM   #10
dajowi
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 2, 2005
Posts: 976
Unfortunately for gun owners, the Sandy Hook numbers add up to GUN CONTROL.
dajowi is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 11:14 AM   #11
Gaerek
Senior Member
 
Join Date: October 3, 2012
Location: Arizona
Posts: 939
I want to say that what I'm about to say is something I don't agree with, but will be the counter to AB's point, if he brought it up to a grabber.

He wasn't shooting constantly, he was shooting in bursts. He's walk into an area, and fire as quickly as he could. Then he'd move to another area, and do the same. So although the ROF for the entire massacre was relatively low, the ROF for each "burst" was likely high. If he had a bolt gun, he might not have been able to do what he had done.

Again, although there is some logic in that, it doesn't pass the common sense test for guns in general. It's just the counter you'll get to that point.
Gaerek is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 12:17 PM   #12
Onward Allusion
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 17, 2009
Location: IN
Posts: 1,735
You are over-thinking it. It doesn't matter to anyone except those on this side of the issue. You can do all the math you want, but anit's don't give a crap about logic. It's the new math, ya know?
__________________
"With great power, there must also come great responsibility." - Stan Lee

"All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing." - Edmund Burke
Onward Allusion is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 05:58 PM   #13
Aguila Blanca
Senior Member
 
Join Date: September 25, 2008
Location: CONUS
Posts: 6,403
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaerek
If he had a bolt gun, he might not have been able to do what he had done.
Rebuttal: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aC3zsPOIYag

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ignlbn1-wg0

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LmYQhEfuxM

And, of course ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rFYZHLuxXZ8
Aguila Blanca is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 08:53 PM   #14
Cowboy_mo
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 23, 2010
Location: Missouri
Posts: 900
The anti's don't care is correct .....

They are just using this tragedy as an excuse to go after our guns AGAIN.

Think about it, if the kid had used molative cocktails, would they be trying to outlaw gasoline? Don't think so.

If a drunk bus driver had crashed into the school and killed them, would they be trying to re-enact prohibition? Don't think so.
Cowboy_mo is offline  
Old April 12, 2013, 09:06 PM   #15
Jim Rau
Junior Member
 
Join Date: April 10, 2013
Location: Alabama
Posts: 6
I have pointed out in several discussions if he had a plain old pump shotgun and bag of shells he could have accomplished the same amount of damage. When you have no 'armed' opposition it don't take a semi-auto and detachable magazines to cause this type of carnage!
__________________
An armed society is not always a polite society but it is a FREE and SAFE society!
Keep your head down and your powder dry!
Jim Rau is offline  
Old April 13, 2013, 10:14 AM   #16
Gaerek
Senior Member
 
Join Date: October 3, 2012
Location: Arizona
Posts: 939
Quote:
Rebuttal: <snip>
I'm with you. I'm well aware of how fast people can cycle a bolt gun. Heck, watching some of those Cowboy Action shooters shooting pump shotguns (and heck, level guns and SA Revolvers) one shot at a time is absolutely amazing, and almost unbelievable how fast they are. Like I said, I don't agree with the argument I made, but it's exactly what you would get.
Gaerek is offline  
Old April 13, 2013, 08:08 PM   #17
SPEMack618
Senior Member
 
Join Date: June 21, 2010
Location: Central Georgia
Posts: 1,424
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dakota.Potts
Well, if you think you have more ammo then you need, a reload of that sort makes sense. I wouldn't draw too many conclusions about it.
My platoon sergeant was most insistent that doing the "tactical reload" was a great way to have a bunch of half full mags at an impromtu time.
__________________
NRA Life Member
Big Sister: "You should be sponsored by Allen"
Me: "If you can't shoot good, at least look good walking to the firing line."
Big Sister: "Can you not afford a Pelican? Then buy an Allen gun bag."
SPEMack618 is offline  
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:47 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
This site and contents, including all posts, Copyright © 1998-2014 S.W.A.T. Magazine
Copyright Complaints: Please direct DMCA Takedown Notices to the registered agent: thefiringline.com
Contact Us
Page generated in 0.11115 seconds with 9 queries