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Old February 5, 2013, 07:42 AM   #26
Spats McGee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDandy
. . . .The three missing states, FL, AL, and AR are in using their state reports. Also added the three restrictive law categories for AWB, May Issue, and Permit to Purchase. Here's the new link.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JimDandy
Edit I got the stuff from AR mostly. They didn't break things down quite the same as the fed, but three states were missing. Alabama, Arizona, and Florida. . . . .
Were or are you missing information from Arkansas (AR) or Arizona (AZ)?
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Old February 5, 2013, 09:36 AM   #27
JimDandy
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My bad. AZ Arizona. Not paying enough attention while multi tasking.
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Old February 5, 2013, 09:53 AM   #28
Spats McGee
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Fair enough. You are far from the first to make that mistake.
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Old February 7, 2013, 11:33 AM   #29
JimDandy
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Here's yet another revision...

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0XD...it?usp=sharing

This added three columns from the Wikipedia page for the three most common restrictive laws- FOID style permits to purchase, Assault Weapons Bans, and May Issue Carry laws.

If the law was on the books, but not enforced, or not statewide, I counted it. For example Denver has an AWB but Colorado does not. One of the states was noted as having May Issue permit laws that functioned as Shall Issue based on current enforcement.

This gave me some REALLY interesting results, and pointed out a REALLY interesting result I'd been missing so far.

In the TOTAL homicide column, the permissive states are higher. In the Firearm homicide column, the rates are lower. When you divide based on any restrictive laws in our list, the permissive states have a higher homicide count. Firearms homicides are exactly the same- AND the same as the national average- before any state is divided out for its laws.


Edit: Whoops, I didn't count Colorado...

ReEdit: Double Whoops. I did count them, they're Row 9 in the formulas. They just didn't get color coded.
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Old February 7, 2013, 11:51 AM   #30
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Also adding the three missing states has swung the average over to the restrictive states on the previous breakdowns such that the restrictive states have lower rates. But I also see that has changed the formulas to the earlier stuff, and I have to fix it, so wait for hte next upload and link.
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Old February 7, 2013, 01:52 PM   #31
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Can anyone get to http://www.acjic.alabama.gov/cia/2011_cia.pdf or find an updated link the Alabama state Uniform Crime Reports pdf? Its now giving me 404 errors.
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Old February 7, 2013, 02:56 PM   #32
AlabamaFamilyMan
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Alabama UCR

The index page is at:

http://www.acjic.alabama.gov/page-cia

with the 2011 page at:

http://www.acjic.alabama.gov/file-2011_cia.pdf

AFM
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Old February 7, 2013, 04:08 PM   #33
JimDandy
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While I was waiting, I did the same with 2010 data... link is https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B0XD...it?usp=sharing

One PDF is the basic form. The other two, I pulled out the Permissive vs Restrictive totals, and sorted the whole sheet on firearms homicide rate.

The "bad" half (25 of 51) had 10 of the 18 restrictive jurisdictions. 6 of the top 10 on the bad half were permissive. Flipped and sorted the other way, 11 of the top 12 were permissive. None had extremely high populations. I'll be adding a population density column in the near future though. I eyeballed the page on the Census website with pop density, and just eyeballing, my gut says it'll be suggestive but not definitive.

Stronger correlations are geographical- states that were Confederate, or border states with Confederate leanings litter the top of the "Bad" list. States so far west they weren't even a state in 1860 dominate the "good" list.
Attached Files
File Type: pdf 2010 ver 2.pdf (158.3 KB, 5 views)
File Type: pdf 2010 ver 2 Sorted by Firearms homicide rate 2.pdf (154.8 KB, 2 views)
File Type: pdf 2010 ver 2 Sorted by Firearms homicide rate..pdf (154.8 KB, 1 views)

Last edited by JimDandy; February 7, 2013 at 04:48 PM.
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Old February 8, 2013, 01:06 PM   #34
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Jim, this is great stuff. It's pretty clear that strict gun laws don't create a "safer" state.

What is blurring the picture of your data is the city-level data:



New Orleans, St Louis, Miami, and Richmond are all in the permissive states. The anti's like to point to these states as proof that we need more gun control. Looks like your data will refute that though. Keep up the good work.

It would be good to figure out how to control for the effect of the cities...

Source: http://www.theatlanticcities.com/nei...violence/4171/
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