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Old January 7, 2013, 07:03 AM   #1
mack59
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Where is this new stat coming from?

I am suddenly hearing this new statistic:

"40 percent of guns are sold without a background check"

Which is quoted in story after story

I have seen it attributed to The Brady Campaign and to Mayors Against Illegal Guns.

Where is it from? And how did they arrive at that estimate?

I've seem it thrown around attacking Gun shows and private sales as though it were hard documented fact.
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Old January 7, 2013, 07:41 AM   #2
mack59
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Found something - a Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health - a paper that reads like a talking points memo for gun control - the paper references:

"Data from a nationally representative sample of gun owners indicate that 40 percent of firearm acquisitions are from individuals who are not licensed gun dealers."

While the rest of the paper seemingly has footnotes for most references, there is no reference for this statistic, just the statement itself.

However, there is no way to even theoretically regulate private sales without registration of all guns. So they get two birds with one stone.

Of course rarely say - "We want to ban all private sales and register all guns." that would lose support so they say "We must close the loophole that allows 40 percent of all guns to be sold without a background check."

Still wonder about the documentation for that 40 percent figure - what those sales include - who did the survey - how was the survey conducted - how were gun owners chosen - how many were surveyed - where is the methodology and raw data available?
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Old January 7, 2013, 09:17 AM   #3
rickyrick
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I've never purchased a firearm without a background check up until I got a TX CHL, now I don't need a background check.

I was handed down an antique bolt action.
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Old January 7, 2013, 09:29 AM   #4
TomL
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Where is this new stat coming from

I wouldn't concern myself with the "Where" it's more about the "Why" and that can be responded to by saying it works as a persuasive tool for support from the uninformed/low knowledged/chicken little/gun control foamers voting bloc, by, shall we say, a biased media! TL
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Old January 7, 2013, 10:09 AM   #5
drail
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I have bought and sold guns while at shows to/from individuals with no paperwork. (usually out in the parking lot) The thing is there is no possible way that anyone could have an accurate figure of how often this happens. So they just make one up. That works, right? It is just more brainwashing from the media.
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Old January 7, 2013, 10:35 AM   #6
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It is a misleading statistic, and likely not empirically based. The relevant statistic would be "x% of NEW firearms are sold without a background check". But the percentage would be virtually zero, so that number isn't much help to the gun control crowd. They conveniently talk in terms of closing the "gun show loophole" when they are really pushing for a federal ban on unregulated private transfers of firearms within a state.

I just heard this morning that the big regional gun show in Ohio (Bill Goodmans) is now requiring ALL of their table/booth vendors to run background checks. From their website:

Quote:
All Firearms sold, traded, transferred or disposed of by FFL Table holders must undergo background checks as per Federal Law (No Exceptions). Non-Licensed Vendors (Private Sellers-Collectors) hereby represent that they will voluntarily agree to have background checks performed on all firearms sold at the show thru "House FFL's". (A $50 "reward" will be provided to anyone, whether a vendor or attendee, who reports a substantiated violation of any vendor's commitment to perform background checks on any firearm sale.) All vendors who have any firearms for sale must display a "Background Checks Required" signage provided by promoter.
So, they voluntarily closed the so-called gun show loophole. But that isn't really what the Brady folks are talking about. They don't like that most states don't buy into their nonsense, and choose to regulate the commerce within their borders as they see fit.
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Old January 7, 2013, 03:33 PM   #7
Webleymkv
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Quote:
I am suddenly hearing this new statistic:

"40 percent of guns are sold without a background check"

Which is quoted in story after story

I have seen it attributed to The Brady Campaign and to Mayors Against Illegal Guns.

Where is it from?
Where is it from you say? My guess would be that they extracted it from a part of their anatomy not fit to discuss in polite company. Seriously, when the gun grabbers cite statistics without sources, it almost always means that they have no source.
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Old January 7, 2013, 05:16 PM   #8
Tom Servo
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Quote:
Still wonder about the documentation for that 40 percent figure - what those sales include - who did the survey - how was the survey conducted - how were gun owners chosen - how many were surveyed - where is the methodology and raw data available?
I wonder that myself. How would such data even be gathered with any degree of accuracy?

I call shenanigans.
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Old January 7, 2013, 06:49 PM   #9
Jo6pak
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If you repeat a lie often enough it becomes fact. The statistics don't matter as much as the message....if it's on TV (or the internet) it has to be true. Most people will never second guess it. We defenders of RKBA will question it, and the ANTIs will spout it....but the vast majority of the public is apathetic, so they will be swayed by what ever they hear the most often.

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Old January 7, 2013, 09:14 PM   #10
Fishing_Cabin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mack59
I am suddenly hearing this new statistic:

"40 percent of guns are sold without a background check"

Which is quoted in story after story

I have seen it attributed to The Brady Campaign and to Mayors Against Illegal Guns.

Where is it from? And how did they arrive at that estimate?
Its older information. This is the source that I have known of for many years, keep in mind 60% of store sales(FFL) leaves 40% for private sales:

Guns in America: National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms.

Series: NIJ Research in Brief
Published: May 1997
20 pages
41,893 bytes

National Institute of Justice
Research in Brief

https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles/165476.pdf

Quote:
Originally Posted by Above Source
The predominant sources of guns, unsurprisingly,
were stores (60 percent).
Other important sources
included family members and acquaintances. The 3
percent of respondents who indicated that they
obtained guns "through the mail" (which is illegal
for all but FFLs) may have misremembered or may
have referred to a mail-order purchase arranged
through an FFL.

The average gun obtained in 1993 and 1994 was worth
$392 at the time of transfer, with little
difference between handguns and long guns. Fewer
than 1 in 20 guns acquired during those 2 years
were valued at less than $100.

Fifty-seven percent of firearms were obtained from
stores, pawnshops, or other sources that the
respondents were certain to have been federally
licensed firearm dealers. Some respondents were not
sure about whether the source was an FFL. Others
indicated that the source was an FFL but then
reported that the transaction was a trade rather
than a cash sale or that the source was an
acquaintance or family member. If those cases are
included, the proportion increases to 64 percent.

We conclude that approximately 60 percent of gun
acquisitions involved an FFL and hence were subject
to Federal regulations on such matters as
out-of-State sales, criminal history checks, and
recordkeeping.
A somewhat higher percentage of
handgun acquisitions than long gun acquisitions
involved FFLs. The remaining acquisitions,
amounting to about 2 million per year, were
off-the-books transfers in the secondary market.
This survey was done using Data collected by telephone survey, so I would take the results with a grain of salt....Just my opinion.

Quote:
The NIJ-sponsored National Survey
of Private Ownership of Firearms (NSPOF)
was conducted by Chilton Research Services
of Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania, during
November and December 1994. Data collected
by the survey were analyzed by the
authors of this Research in Brief.

The telephone survey employed a listassisted
random-digit-dial sampling
method, in which every residential telephone
number had the same likelihood of
being selected. Each household selected
in this fashion was scheduled for as many
calls as needed (up to a maximum of six)
to make contact with the appropriate person
and complete the interview. When a
household was first contacted, the interviewer
asked to speak with the adult in
the household who had the most recent
birthday. Because this method randomizes
the selection of respondents from
among the adults living in the household,
the NSPOF was a probability sample of
adults in the United States.
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Old January 7, 2013, 10:07 PM   #11
mack59
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Thanks for the information, very helpful. Must be hearing it now because it relates to the reported whitehouse desire to push to track all gun sales.
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Old January 7, 2013, 10:25 PM   #12
kilimanjaro
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Posts: 1,610
Remember, 97.3 % of all statistics are just made up....

That's certainly true in this case, there is no way to determine how many firearms are sold privately in this country, not possible to quantify it without a lot of subjectivity.
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Old January 7, 2013, 11:38 PM   #13
mack59
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Well, they evidently did a survey of a sample of gun owners to estimate how guns are transferred or obtained. The accuracy would depend on a lot of factors such as the sample size, the representativeness of the sample, etc... But it is possible to estimate, just like political polling or surveying defensive gun use.

Information gleaned from news reports leads me to believe that gun control advocates are questioning whether or not they would be able to pass a straight up "assault weapon ban" or possibly even a magazine ban, so they are gearing up to also push for banning private sales and keeping a database of all sales and transfers - effectively creating a national registration of guns. That is their Holy Grail anyway as once they have that they can push piecemeal or wholesale gun bans - or so they seem to believe - and will know who has the guns to turn in.
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