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Old November 16, 2012, 06:13 PM   #151
nate45
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I wouldn't bet either. I started a thread in T&T once about not underestimating ones opponents. Some career criminals are very good shots and weapon handlers. Assuming they'll just run away and not pull out their own Glock 19, or whatever and fill you full of holes, is a dangerous assumption.
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Old November 16, 2012, 07:27 PM   #152
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Quote:
Posted by afone 1: If you pop off one or two rounds, they are going to be running away so fast, if they didn't get hit.
Basis for that assumption?

Quote:
Most SD shootings are one or two shots, if needed. That's when the thugs realize, oh crap, this guy has a gun and he means business.
Alrighty then.

Could be, but I won't sake my personal safety on what "most may or may not be.

Quote:
A 5 shot 642 is fine for CC.
Unless if isn't.

I carried one for quite a while, but discussions linked in posts in this thread led me to retire it.

Quote:
Also there is no honor among thieves. The ones that can run away will leave their wounded buddies behind. They are not going to stick around to see what happens next.
Unless the only way they can get away is in your car, perhaps with your significant other , or unless they are so close that finishing you off gives a better chance for survival than running.
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Old November 16, 2012, 08:40 PM   #153
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I will still go back to the statistics of law enforcement gun fights where 2 hits are necessary to subdue an enemy and the average hit percentage was 1/3 of the time. At this point, the trained officer had taken, on average 6 shots to subdue one criminal. At this point it is simple math. If there is one more attacker you will run out of rounds if you only have 8. Of course every circumstance will be different, but it is doubtful that attackers will be hanging like a sheet of paper at the range directly in front of you. So, something to consider.
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Old November 16, 2012, 09:17 PM   #154
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Life's too short to sweat the things we can control (as I see it, it's the out-of-our-control stuff that kills us ). So I say it's a moot point on the platform--just carry a spare mag or speed-loader and then no-worries. It's cheap, requires essentially no change in attire, not much in the way of perceptible weight etc. and I can think of no downside (please don't reply with legal concerns as we need a separate forum for such IMO).

YMMV but whenever I talk to buddies or family members, this is always a unanimously held belief in my circles. Heck, 3/4 of the people I know who CCW do so and, moreover, carry a BUG as well .
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Old November 17, 2012, 01:06 AM   #155
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If you run the odds numbers accouting for the fact that every shot you get to take, each of the bad guys gets one as well, you'll see that surviving a multi-attacker encounter based solely on capacity (i.e. number of turns or innings) rapidly becomes statistically impossible. Even if they lack guns, as you spend time expending ammo, and whether or not you even hit, the baddies have the opportunity to incapacitate you; if they are anywhere close to as effective as you are with a gun, you cannot win.

I ran some rough probability numbers and got these for a successful 2 on 1 encounter where everyone has a 60% hit rate, and 2 shots to stop:

1st turn (you shoot and hit one of them, they both get to shoot back since 2 hits are assumed to incapacitate)
~82% probablilty you will receive a shot (whether you hit or not)
2nd turn (you incapacitate Guy 1, Guy 2 gets to a chance to shoot back)
~49% probability you receive a second shot and are incapacitated
3rd turn (you hit Guy 2 and he shoots back)
~74% probability you receive 2 or more shots by this point in the fight
4th turn (you hit Guy 2 and finally end the fight or you miss and he gets a shot)
~97% probability you receive 2 or more shots by this point in the fight

Granted, there are assumptions in this analysis, and granted, any attack is a statistical outlier. The point is, capacity is not the important variable in determining victory, but speed and placement. If you have to take fewer turns (i.e. one shot stops) and get more turns the the other guys, the odds quickly move in your favor. If you simply add the number of innings you could physically prolong the fight, odds of survival rapidly become insignificant.

Quote:
2 hits are necessary to subdue an enemy and the average hit percentage was 1/3 of the time. At this point, the trained officer had taken, on average 6 shots to subdue one criminal.
Odds don't work that way (1:3*2=6 bullets)
The odds of getting two shots of six are:
.3*.3 = .09 (0 miss)
.3*.3*.7 = .063*2 (1 misses, 2 ways)
.3*.3*.7*.7 = .0441*3 (2 misses, 3 ways)
.3*.3*.7*.7*.7 = .0309*4 (3 misses, 4 ways)
.3*.3*.7*.7*.7*.7 = .0216*5 (4 misses, 5 ways)
Grand Total: 58% chance of stopping one guy with 2 of six bullets
TCB

(If it looks like I made an error in these calcs please let me know and I will attempt to rectify the mistake; e-net numbers only have value if they are accurate. I can show the math I used to arrive at these numbers if anyone really cares that much about permutations)
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Last edited by barnbwt; November 17, 2012 at 01:26 AM.
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Old November 17, 2012, 06:18 AM   #156
OldMarksman
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Quote:
Posted by barnbwt: The odds of getting two shots of six are:
.3*.3 = .09 (0 miss)
.3*.3*.7 = .063*2 (1 misses, 2 ways)
.3*.3*.7*.7 = .0441*3 (2 misses, 3 ways)
.3*.3*.7*.7*.7 = .0309*4 (3 misses, 4 ways)
.3*.3*.7*.7*.7*.7 = .0216*5 (4 misses, 5 ways)
Grand Total: 58% chance of stopping one guy with 2 of six bullets
That's the idea.

The link in Post #36 gives the same result, and allows one to vary that hit rate and the number of rounds, and to consider the possibility of a second attacker.

The graphs shown in Post #10 of that link are eye-openers.

Last edited by OldMarksman; November 17, 2012 at 06:27 AM.
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Old November 17, 2012, 11:13 AM   #157
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http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/we...pagewanted=all

Not every shoot you take will hit the target. Even for police that are more trained that alot of us. All the people saying that you will hit the person with every shot you take, is a myth in a real life situation.
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Old November 17, 2012, 11:22 AM   #158
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Quote:
Not every shoot you take will hit the target. Even for police that are more trained that alot of us. All the people saying that you will hit the person with every shot you take, is a myth in a real life situation.
Right you are but some of us here have had extensive training and some of us have been trainers for military and police officers. Mostly its about the attitude you can show when the adrenaline rush hits. There are those who stand firm under pressure and some who get all excited and need a few seconds under fire before they gather their wits and use their training and some who will never be good under pressure. That quirk in their physical reaction and personality counts for as much or more then skills on the range.
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Old November 18, 2012, 02:42 AM   #159
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Physical attacks by more than 1 ... and up to 20 , is not that uncommon right now... if you've been keeping up with the news.

Instead of 1-2 robbers, it's more common now going in groups of 3-4.... 1-2 to cover the crowd in case someone has a cc gun among the witnesses / victims.

The "knock-out" crowd... are in full bloom in some areas.

Then, if you have any gangs around at all, and you probably do even if you don't happen to know about it... then running into 5 people who are all armed ... may not be that unexpected.

Home invasions, are typically 3 -5 people.

I know a person who answered his door late at night, because he knew 2 of the people outside, but also had a .45 behind his back. They tried to barge /push thru the door when he began to open it .... all were armed and immediately were pointing guns at him (how many not known). He shot and killed 3 of them, wounded one, and the last one was seen running away.

To say it's "unlikely" is great, until it happens.

OP: higher capacity semi-auto.... or "speed-loaders", and / or a loaded back-up gun.
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Old November 18, 2012, 10:42 AM   #160
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http://www.nola.com/crime/index.ssf/...incart_m-rpt-2


http://www.ky3.com/news/schurz-man-i...,7432938.story


Yep, its true. criminals are weak knee'd cowards and will run at the sight of you talisman.
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Last edited by Nanuk; November 18, 2012 at 11:12 AM.
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Old November 18, 2012, 11:35 AM   #161
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If one reads the whole thread, its fairly obvious that CCW capacity is an individual thing that can be based partly, perhaps a large part, on area and circumstances.

A mid-sized 9mm/40 with 15+ round capacity and one or two spare magazines isn't unreasonable, plus a BUG, if its a high crime area, or not.
I made a joking reference to a Mac 10 in an earlier post in this thread, but I actually knew a man who carried a Mac 11 concealed, because his work required him to enter a very high crime area, where there was a chance of a gang/mob attack.

Thats not to say that only circumstances should dictate carry choice. Confidence and just plain old freedom come into play. If someone who lives in a relatively crime free area, wants to get approved, pay the Class III tax and CCW an UZI, I'd be the last to laugh at them. Just like I won't belittle the man that carries a five shot j-frame with no reload.
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Old November 22, 2012, 12:00 PM   #162
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I can only speak for myself but I frequently take my S & W 642 .38 Airweight, stick it in my front pocket and go. I feel well protected by 5 rounds of +P. I think I could put up a good enough defense to discourage most attackers.

Most of the human predators out there are looking for an easy mark. If they see that you are prepared to put up a potentially deadly defense they'll skeedadle.

Just my opinion.
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Old November 22, 2012, 12:05 PM   #163
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"MOST" people go there entire life with out carrying a gun at all. "MOST" of them are never victims of a violent act that a gun would stop.

"MOST" defensive shootings only required 1-2 shots.

I dont think it is possible to prepare for "ALL" situations.
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Old November 22, 2012, 07:14 PM   #164
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8 rounds 45 hollow points should make the intruders think twice. Shot placement is all that counts.
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Old November 22, 2012, 10:45 PM   #165
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I guess it depends on how good of a shot you are and how long it takes to get on target and fire. myself i feel pretty safe with 8 rounds of 230gr 45apc as that should stop even bigfoot.
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Old November 22, 2012, 11:37 PM   #166
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Ok we have gone five long pages with out any resolution. And, to be perfectly frank, none is possible as our is a very individual choice.

Good discussion, but at this point I really feel we're treading the same beaten ground and killing band width, and that is a good time to close things.
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