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Old July 29, 2010, 07:08 PM   #1
n7qvu
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Total Guns sold in USA in 2009 - Help me guess.

Well to start with:
The FBI says they did 14 mil NICS background checks last year.
1) Some small amount would get denied, and another small amount would be multi-gun purchases, so kinda even out.
2) There are about twenty states that don't use NICS, they process their own, so that could bump the number up by maybe 25%.
3) The FBI/ATF allows most states to skip NICS for concealed permit holders. This is the big mystery question...

So without permit holders, I'm up to 17+ million sold last year.

What % of gun buys are made by permit holders? 25% or maybe as high as 50%?

50% would put the sales up past 26 million. Of course, no private sales included.

WOW. Kinda a bunch...
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Old July 29, 2010, 07:41 PM   #2
ScottRiqui
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Here's the ATF report listing production/sales figures for 2008, broken down by manufacturer and (mostly) by caliber.

The interim report for 2009 is here. It has the totals, but not broken down by manufacturer.

Of course, sales of used guns won't be included in those reports.

EDIT - Also noticed that those are just *domestic* production/sales figures, so they're not as useful as I first thought.

Last edited by ScottRiqui; July 29, 2010 at 07:48 PM.
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Old July 29, 2010, 09:49 PM   #3
n7qvu
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As stated production doesn't include imports.

Does anybody have a guess on the % of permit holders vs none holders that are buyers?
I still think it would be around 25%, but I might 'read' higher since I'm in AZ.
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Old July 30, 2010, 12:21 AM   #4
Jeremiah/Az
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We have 158,000 + CCW holders here in Az. that would not be counted in buys, as there on no checks on us.
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Old July 30, 2010, 12:26 AM   #5
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I think that CHL holders in Virginia still get checked. I may be wrong, though. I know I still have to fill out the 4473 and wait for the clerk to enter it into the computer and wait for a response, but they may well be doing an abbreviated background check that doesn't involve the NICS.
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Old July 30, 2010, 01:28 AM   #6
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Not a lot of us (comparatively), but no checks on CCW holders in Arkansas either.
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Old July 30, 2010, 08:39 AM   #7
n7qvu
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Thanks for the comments.

Any FFLs out there?

What % of your gun sales are to concealed permit holders?
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Old July 30, 2010, 09:40 AM   #8
Don P
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I would say the only accurate way is to get a hold of the P&L reports from all the manufacturer's that should have all you need. Happy searching
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Old July 30, 2010, 10:04 AM   #9
pgdion
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Quote:
would put the sales up past 26 million.
Now that's some stimulus!!! This doesn't even take into account the ammo purchased.

Good reasoning but I have a question on the numbers. If 20 states don't participate, that would bump by more like 40% to about 19.5M. Just wondering if you looked at those 20 states and chose 25% do to how gun friendly they are, size of population, ect. Obviously MN would by more guns than ND, and Texas more guns than MN.

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Old July 30, 2010, 02:12 PM   #10
n7qvu
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Quote:
Just wondering if you looked at those 20 states and chose 25% do to how gun friendly they are, size of population
The above would fine tune the count, but no I didn't yet.
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Old July 30, 2010, 05:00 PM   #11
n7qvu
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States that do zero or partial NICS checks.

The FBI lists the following states as of 07/2008 that do internal checks.
POC = State has a "Point of Contact" for conducting background checks.
Partial POC[handgun=state poc, long gun=NICS]

Full POC states(13): CA, CO, CT, FL, HI, IL, OR, NJ, NV, PA, TN, UT, VA
Partial POC(8): IA, MI, MD, NC, NE, NH, WA, WI

Sounds like we need to rate these.
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Old July 31, 2010, 12:00 AM   #12
44 AMP
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If you are looking for the total number of NEW guns sold in the US in 2009, good luck. You'd need all the gun maker's production numbers, plus all the importers numbers, minus the number of 2009 production guns they still had in unsold inventory as of Dec 31st 2009.

How anyone could get those numbers, even the govt, is beyond me. IT would require a serious research effort, along with some way of compelling makers, dealers and importers to release that infomation to you.

Good Luck.

And if you want to consider the total number of guns sold (new AND used), better look for guidance from on high. Because only the Lord knows what that number might be!

I'm sure I'm not "typical", and I know many folks who are more active than I am, but for the last couple decades, I have been buying between one and half a dozen guns a year, depending on my finances, and what I get interested in. Many of them get traded off after a year or three, to be replaced with others. Very, very few are new guns, and few are purchased through dealers. All legal, just a hobby, not a business. If you can figure aout a way to track that, you belong to the gun control lobby, in spirit, if not in fact!
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Old July 31, 2010, 02:52 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 44 AMP
If you are looking for the total number of NEW guns sold in the US in 2009, good luck. You'd need all the gun maker's production numbers, plus all the importers numbers, minus the number of 2009 production guns they still had in unsold inventory as of Dec 31st 2009.

How anyone could get those numbers, even the govt, is beyond me. IT would require a serious research effort, along with some way of compelling makers, dealers and importers to release that infomation to you.

Good Luck.
IF you were the govt, it wouldn't be hard at all. Require US manufacturers to submit the number of guns sold to US distributors, subtract the guns those distributors exported, add the number of guns imported into the US to distributors, and you have the total number "new" guns added into the wholesale sales channel.

Perhaps they don't all sell in that year, but you would know how many "new" guns were produced/imported in a certain year for the US sales channel.

You'll never know the number of "horse trades", inheritances, and private sales, of course.
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