FBI: Big drops in crime rates in first half of '09

[oneounceload]

Not sure if this is the correct forum - move if necessary.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34510483...ime_and_courts

The "experts" are scratching their heads to explain why - yet no where in the article does it mention the huge increases in gun-owning law-abiding citizens as a possible explanation.

Maybe we could link sites like these to the authors for some potential insight....

[chris in va]

Noticed that too. Hard to say what's really going on, but I can't help but think all these CC permits are part of it.

[CobraCommander]

At the least, trends like this seem to suggest that the relationship between firearms and crime is not at all clear (contrary to the what the Brady types think, that people with weapons will kill each other over trivialities.)

[4V50 Gary]

Can anyone establish a correlation between states that have enabled mandatory CCW permits also have reduced crime rates? There's your proof if someone has.

[Rembrandt]

I'd prefer to think that the extra $1.3 Billion dollars firearm owners spent on guns and ammo in 2009 over and above the previous year resulted in lower crime rates. Besides, where's the incentive to rob a guy with 30,000 rounds of stockpiled ammo.....(heehee)

[Stevie-Ray]

The same brilliant minds were reporting on the spikes in gun and ammunition sales, but will refuse to see a corollary, even if it's suggested to them.

Fox news will probably "get it" if anybody does.

[ESI Agent]

I know why! It's because of Chief Bratton. of the LAPD.

[Kyo]

lol. it is funny. good to know crime is down. maybe the criminals listened to the knew when they reported all the big bad gun nuts for buying more weapons.

[Double Naught Spy]

Can anyone establish a correlation between states that have enabled mandatory CCW permits also have reduced crime rates? There's your proof if someone has.

As has been said before, correlation is not causation. I can show you where crime rates went down in Texas in 1996 when we got concealed carry. Of course, I can show you where crime rates went down in several places where concealed carry is limited or non-existent during the same year. I can show you how Texas' concealed carry program not only affect states more than 1000 miles distant, but also affected the time-space continuum by causing crime to drop in the years leading up to 1996.
http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...a+crime&page=2

I can show you that while Texas has concealed carry that some cities have some of the highest violent crimes and murders in the country.
http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...=violent+crime

I can show you where some of the most gun friendly states with concealed carry have some of the highest violent crime rates.
http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...=violent+crime

I can show you where crime went up the year following concealed carry inception (1987) in Florida and remained up for several years, violent crime spiking dramatically in 1988.
http://www.thefiringline.com/forums/...=florida+crime

If you think guns are reducing crime, then you have to be able to explain how it is that some of the most gun friendly states also have some of the most violent crime issues, spikes in crime, etc. These sorts of data seem to be ignored by pro-gun folks.

Guns do affect individual crimes, no doubt. People with CCWs and home defense guns do manage to stop criminals...who if not killed or captured then go elsewhere to find a victim and commit crimes. Those that aren't captured or killed and go elsewhere end up committing two crimes instead of one because the person with the gun that stopped their crime often end up reporting that crime as does the next person on whom the crime was successful.

[chris in va]

That thought crossed my mind as well. NYC recorded less crime too.

[Glenn E. Meyer]

If you read the professional literature and/or go to the conventions (like the American Society for Criminology), you would see that the issue is very complex. DNS is quite correct - the stat analysis are very sophisticated and simple surface correlations on a national or state level without controlling for lots of things are really not that useful.

[Crosshair]

My bet is that all the good stuff had already been stolen in 2008.

[Tom Servo]

Double Naught Spy is on the mark. Crime declined rapidly through the 1990's. Experts at the time were unsure of the cause. The Brady Campaign took credit, citing the AWB and Brady Bill, but those things came out after the decline began.

A more likely explanation came from Steven Levitt, in which he postulated that the wildfire of crack cocaine had died out. By the mid-1990's, many users were dead, incarcerated or in recovery, and as such, the violence simmered out.

I wonder if that's what we're seeing now, but with crystal methamphetamine instead of crack. It used to be easy and cheap to produce mass quantities of the stuff at home, but most of the components are regulated and monitored, so dealers and users depend on expensive imported product.

It's just a hunch, and I can't provide the literature to verify it, but it seems a logical conclusion.

There are over 25 million new firearms in circulation since the election. We can't prove that this caused the decline in crime, but the numbers clearly show that such a massive increase in ownership did not cause more crime.

Which is impressive in and of itself.

More to the point, there have been no recent gun-control initiatives for which the Left can take credit.

[Caboclo]

There are over 25 million new firearms in circulation since the election.

Tom, that's quite a remarkable stat. I assume you mean the Presidential election? Can you provide a source for that number? I know there's been a rush on, but that's wild. I guess I shouldn't be too surprised, I've done my fair share to contribute to the shortage!

[DnPRK]

Ask anyone who lives in a southern border state. Millions of illegal aliens went home due to the bad economy. When they were here, many of them used crime to supplement their incomes. Burglaries, property/auto theft, muggings, assaults, murders, Etc. are all down from where they were 2 years ago.

You won't hear this from mainstream media because it's not a politically correct thing to say.

[chris in va]

I can see the drug issue having an effect, but doesn't account for sexual offenses coming down as well.

Maybe people are just 'chilling out' more than usual. I like to think it has something to do with all the permits being issued, but...

[parrothead2581]

It would be nice if CCW permits played a major part in reduced crime rates, but I have a hard time believing that.

Do most criminals even know there is such a thing as CCW permits in their neck of the woods?

[Tom Servo]

Tom, that's quite a remarkable stat. I assume you mean the Presidential election? Can you provide a source for that number?

There were 25 million NICS checks reported in 2009. I'll see if I can dig up the stats.

Edit: I got the numbers jumbled. Checks were up 25%, not 25 million. From November 2008-April 2009, there were 7 million checks. In March alone, 1.3 million. The actual number of checks, November-November, is 14,456,478.

Considering off-the-grid exempted sales on CCW permits and the fact that a multiple-gun purchase only counts as one check, that's still 20 million easily. And still no corresponding crime wave

[Crosshair]

Quite a few of those guns may have been used guns being sold and bought.

Though on the other hand, in states like ND, if you have a CWP you don't have to call NICS because a NICS check was part of the background check for one. So as far as the ATF knows from NICS checks I've only bought 3 guns in the last 2 years.

[Double Naught Spy]

Do most criminals even know there is such a thing as CCW permits in their neck of the woods?

Right, I never figured out how it was that we think that criminals are absolute morons, especially those who are drug-crazed, and yet somehow we arrived at the conclusion that criminals had reasoned out that concealed carry states meant a greater chance of encounters with armed people such that it caused them to become law abiding citizens and not commit crimes. The logic is amazingly naive on many levels. We know that the death penalty hasn't stopped people from committing murders. We know that establishments with armed guards get robbed. We know that convenience stores where the owner has shot robbers in the past still manage to have people try to rob them time and again. If there is one thing many criminals do realize is that there are risks involved in their chosen illegal activities. They may wish to minimize risk where they can, but risk in and of itself does not stop criminals from committing crimes.

More Guns does not necessarily equal less crime because there is no causative influence between guns and crime rates, at least none that can be established with the data we have so far. Guns simply are not a driving force in crime rates, be they minor crimes such as vandalism and shoplifting or major crimes such as robberies, rapes, and murders.

Guns most certainly are a significant factor at the individual level, however, allowing those with guns the opportunity to defend themselves, loved ones, and even strangers who are being victimized by criminals. These sorts of successful events simply are not changing the overall rate of crime, however.

[Caboclo]

that's still 20 million easily

OK people, the number to beat in 2010 is 20 mil. Let's get to it!

[Shane Tuttle]

DNS,

Several months ago we had the discussion on whether allowing CCW actually caused a drop in crime as you posted in the second link.

I must say you do have credible data that supports your assertion. However, I still don't buy into the provision of CCW would not lower violent crime rates if the saturation and normal practice was in order. In other words, I do tend to agree just because there's a state with shall-issue does not automatically mean the crime rate would drop. But if there's a relatively high percentage of the population legally armed on a regular basis, I must say the violent crime rate would be drastically different for the better. Unfortunately, I don't think there's data to back up my educated guess. I'm only going by what would make sense in my head.

[ESI Agent]

One of the best classes I took that was required for my BS in Criminal justice was crime prevention in the criminal justice system.
For those who think hiring more police will reduce crime do a search and check out the Kansas city experiment. It sure goes against what some people are trying to sell you. Whether affects the crime rate. Demographics effects the crime rate. Having private security effects the crime rate as well as lighting. In fact the most effective way to reduce crime has nothing to do with law enforcement and is Crime prevention through environmental design. Of course when crime is down it's because of the great job of the police community and if crime is up it's because we don't provide enough money for them. IM not anti Police it's just what you learn when you study crime.

[Caboclo]

ESI, would you care to elaborate on "environmental design"? Are you referring to security lighting and high fences around your house?

[Shane Tuttle]

I really don't think I can accept that, ESI. Granted, back in the day was a different time, but it seemed to me when foot patrol was truly foot patrol meaning there was a cop at just about every corner it was an effective crime deterrence. Law enforcement presence is one way to aid in crime deterrence. It isn't the only way. It isn't the primary mode. But I do believe it is one key way.

Heck, it doesn't even have to be a LE officer. I've personally seen the positive effect of Guardian Angels in downtown Denver in the mid '90s. That alone was quite the testimony to prove if citizens were to take action and provide aggressive cooperation with their local police departments, they can take back their neighborhoods.