Firearm Stopping Power…a different perspective.

[IanS]

This was posted on another forum and it will either confirm what some of you already know, blow your minds, or you can keep denying the truth. Before anyone only looks at the 9mm, .40, and .45 numbers (the most popular rounds) and declare how the .40 and .45 still has an "edge" compare the numbers to .380 and smaller calibers. That doesn't mean I'm gonna switch to the .380 or .32 just that there really isn't that much of a difference. It really is true. Handguns only poke holes. All handguns generally suck about equally.

This was posted by Greg Ellifritz, TDI Instructor/Staff

Firearm Stopping Power…a different perspective.
I’ve been interested in firearm stopping power for a very long time. I remember reading Handguns magazine back in the late 1980s when Evan Marshall was writing articles about his stopping power studies. When Marshall’s first book came out in 1992, I ordered it immediately, despite the fact that I was a college student and really couldn’t afford its $39 price tag. Over the years I bought all of the rest of Marshall’s books as well as anything else I could find on the subject. I even have a first edition of Gunshot Injuries by Louis Lagarde published in 1915.

Every source I read has different recommendations. Some say Marshall’s data is genius. Some say it is statistically impossible. Some like big heavy bullets. Some like lighter, faster bullets. There isn’t any consensus. The more I read, the more confused I get. One thing I remember reading that made a lot of sense to me was an article by Massad Ayoob. He came out with his own stopping power data around the time Marshall published Handgun Stopping Power. In the article Ayoob took his critics to task. He suggested that if people didn’t believe his data, they should collect their own and do their own analysis. That made sense to me. So that’s just what I did.

Over a 10-year period, I kept track of stopping power results from every shooting I could find. I talked to the participants of gunfights, read police reports, attended autopsies, and scoured the newspapers, magazines, and Internet for any reliable accounts of what happened to the human body when it was shot. I documented all of the data I could; tracking caliber, type of bullet (if known), where the bullet hit and whether or not the person was incapacitated. I also tracked fatalities, noting which bullets were more likely to kill and which were not. It was an exhaustive project, but I’m glad I did it and I’m happy to report the results of my study here.

Before I get to the details, I must give a warning. I don’t have any dog in this fight! I don’t sell ammo. I’m not being paid by any firearm or ammunition manufacturer. I carry a lot of different pistols for self defense. Within the last 2 weeks, I’ve carried a .22 magnum, a .380 auto, a .38spl revolver, 3 different 9mm autos and a .45 auto. I don’t have an axe to grind. If you are happy with your 9mm, I’m happy for you. If you think that everyone should be carrying a .45 (because they don’t make a .46), I’m cool with that too. I 'm just reporting the data. If you don’t like it, take Mr. Ayoob’s advice….do a study of your own.

A few notes on terminology…
Since it was my study, I got to determine the variables and their definitions. Here’s what I looked at:
• Number of people shot
• Number of rounds that hit
• On average, how many rounds did it take for the person to stop his violent action or be incapacitated? For this number, I included hits anywhere on the body.
• What percentage of shooting incidents resulted in fatalities. For this, I included only hits to the head or torso.
• What percentage of people were not incapacitated no matter how many rounds hit them
• Accuracy. What percentage of hits was in the head or torso. I tracked this to check if variations could affect stopping power. For example, if one caliber had a huge percentage of shootings resulting in arm hits, we may expect that the stopping power of that round wouldn’t look as good as a caliber where the majority of rounds hit the head.
• One shot stop percentage- number of incapacitations divided by the number of hits the person took. Like Marshall’s number, I only included hits to the torso or head in this number.
• Percentage of people who were immediately stopped with one hit to the head or torso

Here are the results.

.25ACP-
# of people shot- 68
# of hits- 150
% of hits that were fatal- 25%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.2
% of people who were not incapacitated- 35%
One-shot-stop %- 30%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 62%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 49%

.22 (short, long and long rifle)
# of people shot- 154
# of hits- 213
% of hits that were fatal- 34%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.38
% of people who were not incapacitated- 31%
One-shot-stop %- 31%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 60%

.32 (both .32 long and .32 acp)
# of people shot- 25
# of hits- 38
% of hits that were fatal- 21%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.52
% of people who were not incapacitated- 40%
One-shot-stop %- 40%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 78%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 72%

.380 ACP
# of people shot- 85
# of hits- 150
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.76
% of people who were not incapacitated- 16%
One-shot-stop %- 44%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 62%

.38 Special
# of people shot- 199
# of hits- 373
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.87
% of people who were not incapacitated- 17%
One-shot-stop %- 39%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 55%

9mm Luger
# of people shot- 456
# of hits- 1121
% of hits that were fatal- 24%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.45
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 34%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 74%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 47%

.357 (both magnum and Sig)
# of people shot- 105
# of hits- 179
% of hits that were fatal- 34%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.7
% of people who were not incapacitated- 9%
One-shot-stop %- 44%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 81%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 61%

.40 S&W
# of people shot- 188
# of hits- 443
% of hits that were fatal- 25%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.36
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 45%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 76%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 52%

.45 ACP
# of people shot- 209
# of hits- 436
% of hits that were fatal- 29%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 2.08
% of people who were not incapacitated- 14%
One-shot-stop %- 39%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 85%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 51%

.44 Magnum
# of people shot- 24
# of hits- 41
% of hits that were fatal- 26%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.71
% of people who were not incapacitated- 13%
One-shot-stop %- 59%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 88%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 53%

Rifle (all Centerfire)
# of people shot- 126
# of hits- 176
% of hits that were fatal- 68%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.4
% of people who were not incapacitated- 9%
One-shot-stop %- 58%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 81%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 80%




Shotgun (All, but 90% of results were 12 gauge)

# of people shot- 146
# of hits- 178
% of hits that were fatal- 65%
Average number of rounds until incapacitation- 1.22
% of people who were not incapacitated- 12%
One-shot-stop %- 58%
Accuracy (head and torso hits)- 84%
% actually incapacitated by one shot (torso or head hit)- 86%

Some interesting findings:

I think the most interesting statistic is the percentage of people who stopped with one shot to the torso or head. There wasn’t much variation between calibers. Between the most common defensive calibers (.38, 9mm, .40, and .45) there was a spread of only eight percentage points. No matter what gun you are shooting, you can only expect a little more than half of the people you shoot to be immediately incapacitated by your first hit.

The average number of rounds until incapacitation was also remarkably similar between calibers. All the common defensive calibers required around 2 rounds on average to incapacitate. Something else to look at here is the question of how fast can the rounds be fired out of each gun. The .38spl probably has the slowest rate of fire (long double action revolver trigger pulls and stout recoil in small revolvers) and the fewest rounds fired to get an incapacitation (1.87). Conversely the 9mm can probably be fired fastest of the common calibers and it had the most rounds fired to get an incapacitation (2.45). The .40 (2.36) and the .45 (2.08) split the difference. It is my personal belief that there really isn’t much difference between each of these calibers. It is only the fact that some guns can be fired faster than others that causes the perceived difference in stopping power. If a person takes an average of 5 seconds to stop after being hit, the defender who shoots a lighter recoiling gun can get more hits in that time period. It could be that fewer rounds would have stopped the attacker (given enough time) but the ability to fire more quickly resulted in more hits being put onto the attacker. It may not have anything to do with the stopping power of the round.

Another data piece that leads me to believe that the majority of commonly carried defensive rounds are similar in stopping power is the fact that all four have very similar failure rates. If you look at the percentage of shootings that did not result in incapacitation, the numbers are almost identical. The .38, 9mm, .40, and .45 all had failure rates of between 13% and 17%.

Now compare the numbers of the handgun calibers with the numbers generated by the rifles and shotguns. For me there really isn’t a stopping power debate. All handguns suck! If you want to stop someone, use a rifle or shotgun!

What matters even more than caliber is shot placement. Across all calibers, if you break down the incapacitations based on where the bullet hit you will see some useful information.

Head shots = 75% immediate incapacitation
Torso shots = 41% immediate incapacitation
Extremity shots (arms and legs) = 14% immediate incapacitation.

No matter which caliber you use, you have to hit something important in order to stop someone!

Conclusion

This study took me a long time and a lot of effort to complete. Despite the work it took, I'm glad I did it. The results I got from the study lead me to believe that there really isn't that much difference between most defensive handgun rounds and calibers. None is a death ray, but most work adequately...even the lowly .22s. I've stopped worrying about trying to find the “ultimate” bullet. There isn't one. And I've stopped feeling the need to strap on my .45 every time I leave the house out of fear that my 9mm doesn't have enough “stopping power”. Folks, carry what you want. Caliber really isn't all that important.

Take a look at the data. I hope it helps you decide what weapon to carry. No matter which gun you choose, pick one that is reliable and train with it until you can get fast accurate hits. Nothing beyond that really matters!

A "little" about Greg...

Greg Ellifritz is a 16-year veteran police officer, spending the last 11 years as the fulltime tactical training officer for his central Ohio agency. In that position, he is responsible for developing and instructing all of the in-service training for a 57-officer police department. Prior to his training position, he served as patrol officer, bike patrol officer, precision marksman, and field training officer for his agency.

He has been an active instructor for the Tactical Defense Institute since 2001 and a lead instructor for TDI’s ground fighting, knife fighting, impact weapons, active shooter, and extreme close quarters shooting classes.

[C0untZer0]

Oh My God !!!

This is shocking!

[C0untZer0]

OK... what's the logic with this:

What percentage of shooting incidents resulted in fatalities. For this, I included only hits to the head or torso.

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????

[Rampant_Colt]

[C0untZer0]

OK this is where I stop:

One shot stop percentage- number of incapacitations divided by the number of hits the person took. Like Marshall’s number, I only included hits to the torso or head in this number.

This guy should have taken his ideas to his statistics professor before he came up with this.

total non sequitur.

[Rampant_Colt]

According to this train wreck of a study, the lowly .380 ACP is the equal of the .40 S&W, and surpasses the 9mm, .38 Special, .357 Mag/Sig, and .45 ACP in one-shot stops. The .32 surpasses the .38 and 9mm in one-shot stops.

This 'study' has more holes in it than the patterning board on the shotgun range.. Thanks for sharing!

[idek]

I guess some people don't like being presented with data.

Nothing says anyone has to agree with the guy's conclusions. Whether it was life changing or not, I found it interesting to look through.

...and if there is a need for disparaging remarks, can't a person get fit into one post instead of three?

[Lavid2002]

Interesting, thanks for posting!

[JustThisGuy]

The study presents interesting data.

I would like also to know the percentage of hits on target by caliber. I'm sure he has that data. If anyone has access to him, it would be interesting to ask.

It certainly makes the case for accurate rather than just fast firing.

As for the issue of head/torso numbers only being used for the fatality number, I see the logic in that. Some number of people may have simply bled out from extremity shots before emergency services arrived. That type of incapacitation can take a while (really too long to stop the offender from killing you before he dies).

[BFR 475]

Think I'll switch my home defense gun to a full auto mini gun like in the Predator movie!

[Old Grump]

Lies, damn lies and (do I have to say it)

I'm old and slow and not volunteering to get shot by any gun and if a boogerman is smart he won't get in a position to get shot by me no matter what gun I am using.

[kraigwy]

I like reading these type of reports, but I haven't read on yet that is complete.

Take this one for example:

Light calibers, 22s, 380s 32s etc are easier for most people to shoot do recoil and muzzle blast. BUT: They are normally little pistols with poor sights, w/exceptions, Lots of quality type 22s and 32s out there.

Heavy pistols, such as 357s 44s 45, normally have better sights which should help but they come with heavier recoil and muzzle blast. The exception, small CC pistols that have poor sights and LOTS of recoil and muzzle flash.

OR in those numbers, which shooting occured in winter where the shootee was wearing heavy coats, or was it in the summer where the shootee was wearing a T-shirt?

All of the above information will screw up the data.

Killing is not necessarily stopping, Anyone that hunts knows that a heart/lung shot is a killing shot but the critter often runs a ways before it drops.

None killing shots are often "stopping" shots, an example is a "gut shot". Getting hit hard in the stomach often makes you quit what you are doing, making you drop what you have and grab your stomach (we've all been hit in the stomach and know what actions that causes.

So whats the answer?.....................Got me, I'll just go on carrying what I can conceal and what I can shoot, and just keep reading these reports as a form of entertainment.

[mrbro]

...I'll just go on carrying what I can conceal and what I can shoot, and just keep reading these reports as a form of entertainment.

This sums it up IMHO.

[rigby06]

I would also like to see where in the head or torso the hits took place in, I agree the data could be skewed. But it does lend more to the military or swat type of thinking. The handgun is your secondary weapon, and a rifle is your primary is most cases.

[Mello2u]

C0untZer0

OK... what's the logic with this:

The logic might be: A peripheral hit that resulted in a death was too distant in time (perhaps hours or days) to be applicable to the purpose of the study. Deaths that result from peripheral hits are too remote in time from the shooting to be useful in determining "stopping power" which is a "right now" issue.

This study's conclusions seem to be logical. They conform to my perception of effectiveness of defensive cartridges in incapacitating a human threat.

I subscribe to the premise that all defensive handgun cartridges are under powered; and that is why we are taught to shoot twice to center of mass, assess, and proceed as necessary.

What the bullets destroy and how much hemorrhaging is produced is more important than caliber or bullet weight, although those factors can effect what is destroyed in a target.

[TailGator]

The data concerning center fire pistol cartridges parallels the observation that those cartridges perform quite similarly in ballistic gel.

But comparing .22 to, say, 9 mm and .45, we see that the .22 outperforms common center fire cartridges in percent of hits that are fatal, average number of rounds to incapacitation, and percent incapacitated by a hit to the head or torso. The discontinuity between those findings and other observations gives reason to call in to question the methods of the study and/or analysis. The raw data of this publication could lead less discerning people to conclusions that I for one would consider potentially dangerous.

[Amin Parker]

Hi IanS,

This is my opinion. To a certain extent i agree with some of the article. I have seen too many shootings for someone that has never been in a military.

I have read, researched and seen on the scene results of shootings for my personal curiosity about stopping power and have to admit that, it is something that boggles the mind. The more you know, the less you know.
My findings include results of the shootings that i have been in.

I have seen people hit with all major calibres during gang violence around our business. I have helped many and seen gruesome things.

One guy will die from a 357 in the lower back and another will survive being hit centre of mass. One guy was shot in the neck with a 12 gauge and survives, the same guy is hit in the chest with a 22 a year later and dies within seconds. I have seen a guy hit right through the lung with a 45 and survived.

I wish i could give a pattern or some sort of conclusion but irrespective of calibre the stopping or killing power of most handguns is about the same according to what i have seen. This is according to what i have seen, im not trying to disprove Marshall and Sanow or common sense. I just cannot make sense of what i have seen.

I carry a 9mm loaded with ball ammo because i honestly feel that it is the amount of hits you get in that makes a difference than the calibre of the gun you carry. 6 quick hits with a 22 beats one with a 357. Carry what you can shoot fast. 6 hits with a 357 beats one hit with a shotgun.

Im not saying this to start a calibre war. I am saying that in a defensive situation you shoot fast and accurately until the threat stops being a threat. Once you need to draw, clear your pistol and start firing continuously. That imho is the only way to stop a threat with a handgun.

[IanS]

Despite my personal generalizations I made when I started in this thread what I want more than anything from this thread is a healthy disussion regarding the relative effectiveness of common handgun rounds. I'm glad some people are willing to give the benefit of the doubt to Mr. Ellifritz who I believe tried to do an honest approach to this the best he could. As possibly flawed as it may be and despite some of the questions we may have in how he compiled this data; the more we look towards actual shootings instead of easily falling back on hyperbole and "accepted wisdom" the better. I doubt this or any other study will convince most people to switch from the most common defensive calibers (.38, 9mm, .357, .40, and .45) to a .22, and that includes the author of this study.

But the more I read actual officer involved shootings or justified shootings by civilians the more I am convinced the gap between handgun calibers is not as wide as most people believe them to be. The less we believe handguns as "death rays", notions like knock down power, or be easily impressed by a slightly larger bore and instead emphasize accuracy/shot placement and the ability to make good repeatable hits the better.

[IanS]

Hi Amin,

What you have observed seems to be pretty consistent with others who have done research into the relative effectiveness of handgun calibers be they on an amateur level like Mr. Ellifritz or a more professional rigorous study.

As a side note, I've always relied on hollowpoints opposed to FMJ's not only because they are more likely to expand but because there is less chance they will shoot through and through a perp and possibly hit someone I did not intend to hit.

[C0untZer0]

You can't have a healthy disussion regarding the relative effectiveness of common handgun rounds based on what Mr. Ellifritz has presented.

It's too flawed, too many errors in logic.

I won't have a discussion based on his assumptions or claims because those claims are flawed. To have a duscussion based on it lends credence to it.

I agree with what you say as far as

The less we believe handguns as "death rays", notions like knock down power, or be easily impressed by a slightly larger bore and instead emphasize accuracy and shot placement the better.

But that's just my opnion being the same as yours. And as far as the theory or claim that there isn't a wide discrepency between caliber or rounds, I don't think what Ellifritz has posted, or pulished or declared, neither confirms nor disconfirms that theory.

[IanS]

Count Zero,

Mr. Ellifritz is just a starting point and one of many out there. You can bring in other research or findings that may support or oppose his findings. Instead of saying his research is flawed so let's not talk about this subject anymore.

[Eagle0711]

" Gettysburg " was on the History Channel this week. This was the most bloody battle that has ever been fought on US soil. This is The Civil War. The rifle used was the Springfield Musket. It fired a 58 caliber Minie Ball.

It was a large, heavy, slow moving bullet made of soft lead. When a leg or arm was hit the bone was shattered, and not much left to saw off. This is a devasating round.

There is important knowlege to be learned for our day. It was a stopper and a killer.

[9mm]

Glad this post came out, there seams to be some internet myth that a 380 auto can not kill someone, and everyone wants a 45acp or 44mag/10mm handgun to stop their threat. It's all about placement shots. Like one guy said, I rather have 1,000 rounds of 22lr than 100 rounds of 45 acp.

[overkill0084]

So I need to buy a .32, because it has the best percentage of one shot stops? Or perhaps a .22, for easier concealment.
I haven't taken a statistics class, but AFAIK, raw data is not a definitive study. It creates more questions than answers.

[C0untZer0]

there seams to be some internet myth that a 380 auto can not kill someone

I fell into that trap. I thought that if you shot someone with 380 Auto you were sort of hoping to scare them away, or hope they gave up due to the pain.

In 1993, Lance Corporal Rayna Ross was stalked for months by her violent ex-boyfriend- Anthony Goree. At 3 a.m., June 23, Goree pried open the sliding glass door to her apartment. Once inside, he kicked down her bedroom door and attacked her with a bayonette. Shielding her daughter, Ross fired two shots from a .380-caliber semi-automatic handgun, killing Goree. (She'd bought the gun a few days earlier because of Goree's threats.)

On the other hand, a Jacksonville police officer took a .45 ACP point blank to the chin, not only did he live, he returned fire and killed his assailant.

I think the data is accumulating, and I think meaningful conclusions can someday be drawn from the data.

I think it's unfortunate that so far, the people who make conclusions or postulate theories have no background in science, math, or statistics. And they don't go get help. I mean - Elifritz could have gone to a university and partnered with the math department or the science department to create a real study - done in accordance with accepted scientific method, - but he didn't.

So basically the data is still sitting there until someone comes along who knows how to examine it and make valid and arguably credible conclusions.