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Between you and me and the gatepost (as my dad used to say), I think you are probably right. But so many of those older rifles have been converted to .308 with sometimes less than ideal results that many gunsmiths just won't do that job. But the ring diameter and lug thickness is only one aspect of the question. There were tremendous metalurgical advances in the decade of the 1890's and rifles made in, say, 1894 would not be as good as those made in 1897. It has been easier to just say that pre-98 Mausers were not designed for pressures over about 45k psi than to try to figure out by year and maker just when or if the steel underwent improvements.
One point of interest, for years Norma used Swedish ex-military actions to test fire all their ammunition, and didn't blow any up, though some didn't last too long with Magnum cartridges before battering. Of course, Norma didn't care about long life, only that the actions were cheap and did the job.
Jim
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