I agree with the OP's premise. Watchful, but friendly. A smile is a great way to let someone know that you see them without being confrontational.
Pretty much all of the time the other guy's just some slob going about his life.
Though that comes from the perspective of being a 6' 230lb tattooed weightlifter - I'd agree that smiling at strange men might not be a great conflict avoidance strategy for the ladies.
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