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A 7th Circuit decision in the Moore/Shepard cases, whichever way it decides, will affect what the 4th Circuit might decide.
Judge Posner was the presiding Judge of the panel. If he writes the decision, it will be doubly important. He is highly regarded amongst judicial circles.
As for the SCOTUS taking a case, yes it helps if there is a split in the circuits. That's because they simply can't have the (case) law say one thing in one circuit and say the opposite in another.
Another factor is that the Supreme Court is a bit more deferential if the party asking for cert is the State.
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