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It really is a lot of trial and error, because every rifle has it's own quirks. I start with a bullet weight that should work well with the barrel's twist rate, choose a powder that matches the velocity range I'm going for and offers good load density - and then see what I can do with that. I usually do all initial load development with the bullet seated to mag length or about .020 away from the lands (whichever is shorter). If I'm not satisfied I usually try a different bullet before trying a different powder. I don't tend to think much about bullet jump until I have already chosen a bullet, and trying to further tune a good load.
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