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Old May 22, 2010, 06:43 PM   #102
OldMarksman
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Join Date: June 8, 2008
Posts: 4,022
Quote:
[To base one's risk assessment on variations of what has actually happened in very rare events is really...]...Not the preferred method?
No, and here's why: there aren't enough historical data points to assess the likelihood reliably. There are very few self defense shootings and in those that have occurred there have been many more variables than the number of rounds fired in a single encounter.

The original question was whether there have been real life examples showing the need for "high capacity magazines" (whatever that means); some examples have been given. I simply pointed out that, when there is a relative paucity of actual data relating to situations in which guns have even been fired, and each instance varies from every other one in many ways, an analysis of instances involving the actual use of high capacity magazines would be of little use in arriving at a meaningful conclusion. One has to use other methods of analysis. Simulation and role playing are two possible methods.

Quote:
.... but if your decisions are not based on the likelihood of the event then what is it based on?
I think you missed my point--I do not discount the importance of assessing likelihood, I simply question the usefulness of historical data for that purpose here. To answer your question, however, I would base a decsion on likelihood and the severity of potential consequences and on what would be needed for mitigation.

Again, my point was that while analyzing real world examples may be very appropriate when there are enough data (say, for actuarial projections, for analyzing boating and auto accidents, house fires, warranty cost estimation, whatever), another approach is needed when the history is lacking.

To assess the likelihood of needing either a large magazine or an extra one, one would not rely upon an inadequate historical data set, because one would not get a reliable answer. Rather, FoF training using simunitions, or other role playing, can provide a pretty reasonable idea of not only what may happen but also of how likely each outcome may be.

This problem isn't at all limited to developing civilian shooting strategies; it applies in air combat analysis and training (there are very few actual encounters and many variables)*, manned space flight design, planning, and training (there are very few missions compared to the number of potential variables), strategies for preventing or responding to serious nuclear power plant failures (there have been only two in the world that we know of), disaster control on a submarine, and in other things.

Quote:
If you must take into account ALL variations without consideration of the probability of variation actually happening then the only possible course of action is to spend all the money that you can spend preparing for every possible eventuality.
That's very true indeed, and it's a very key consideration in risk management. One would not armor each infantry tent, carry an excessive amount of supplies into the field, or put four expensive and fuel consuming engines on a commercial airplane that can gain altitude with one engine if two reliable engines can be expected meet the needs, though one maker today will use that factor as a selling point for a four engined plane.

So, regarding magazine capacity, how much is enough? More than five, I think, but that's a personal opinion. I do not expect to ever even fire one shot, but if I do, I think the probably is reasonably high that I will be facing more than one assailant, neither of whom presents a stationary target, that very quick shooting will be required, and that multiple hits per assailant would be needed.

What is the severity of the potential consequences should I need extra rounds that I do not have? Very high indeed, I think.

That brings us to this: what's the cost of having a few extra rounds, or a reload? Very low indeed, as I measure it.

I assess the cost of body armor as being a whole lot higher.

That's the essence of risk management: identifying risks, assessing likelihood, assessing potential consequences, and analyzingf the cost of potential mitigation techniques.

My point is that when situations that enable the analysis of complex variables occur very infrequently, historical data may well not prove useful in assessing any aspect of risk. Again, that's not at all limited to this discussion, and many people spend a lot of time trying to come up with the best mitigation techniques for such things.
*Simulation is widely used in this application today
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