The Firing Line Forums - View Single Post - Fear and anxiety, questions for those of you who lived through the Clinton AWB.

Technosavant · November 5, 2012, 10:14 AM

Like you, I don't consider another federal level AWB likely anywhere in the near future. It would take a seismic shift in Congress and in public opinion (right now, even enough Democrats know it would mean the loss of their seats to make the rank and file unenthusiastic about voting for one), and that's just not in the cards. If anything, it's going the other way- so many people are getting into the self defense side of shooting that one cannot be snuck in. The political environment in 1994 was very different than the one today; gun rights just weren't on most peoples' radar.

However, it sounds like you're asking about the current rush of demand in the firearm and firearm accessories markets. IMO, this one is pretty similar to 2008, only the companies are better able to meet demand right now. I'm just not seeing the mass "out of stock" notices on every last thing that we had four years ago (in late '08, you couldn't find AR-15 bolt carrier groups or barrels in stock anywhere, ditto complete uppers; that is not the case now).

Still, this isn't so much a recent rush as much as it has been a general growing of the market. There's just more people shopping for guns nowadays. Gunmakers can't expand production quite quickly enough without throwing quality out the window. That means the supply will be constrained, and prices will rise. Even if we have a firearm-friendly result to tomorrow's elections, that isn't going to return the firearm market to 2007 levels of demand. I think what we've seen in the last year or so is more or less the way it's going to be from now on.

November 5, 2012, 10:14 AM	#2
Technosavant Senior Member Join Date: May 29, 2007 Location: St. Louis, MO area Posts: 4,040	Like you, I don't consider another federal level AWB likely anywhere in the near future. It would take a seismic shift in Congress and in public opinion (right now, even enough Democrats know it would mean the loss of their seats to make the rank and file unenthusiastic about voting for one), and that's just not in the cards. If anything, it's going the other way- so many people are getting into the self defense side of shooting that one cannot be snuck in. The political environment in 1994 was very different than the one today; gun rights just weren't on most peoples' radar. However, it sounds like you're asking about the current rush of demand in the firearm and firearm accessories markets. IMO, this one is pretty similar to 2008, only the companies are better able to meet demand right now. I'm just not seeing the mass "out of stock" notices on every last thing that we had four years ago (in late '08, you couldn't find AR-15 bolt carrier groups or barrels in stock anywhere, ditto complete uppers; that is not the case now). Still, this isn't so much a recent rush as much as it has been a general growing of the market. There's just more people shopping for guns nowadays. Gunmakers can't expand production quite quickly enough without throwing quality out the window. That means the supply will be constrained, and prices will rise. Even if we have a firearm-friendly result to tomorrow's elections, that isn't going to return the firearm market to 2007 levels of demand. I think what we've seen in the last year or so is more or less the way it's going to be from now on.