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When you've been reloading for a while, you'll start noticing that more often. As with all things, experience lets you sort the data, and a knowledge of how a particular load in your gun works.
Lee's Manual is a good reference for lots of things, but the Lee Manual is data that's taken from lots of different sources and arranged to give highest velocity. It doesn't take into account the different bullets, listing bullets only by type and weight. The stark truth is that different bullets ride down a bore differently. For example, I recently was toying with the .25-06 and loaded two loads. Same powder, same case, same primer, different bullet manufacturer. I used the Hornady SST and the Sierra Gameking, and the velocity difference, while not staggering, was certainly measurable.
Another stark truth is that some manuals are more conservative than others. It's all part-and-parcel of the reloading hobby.
I tend to trust, in order of research, the Hodgdon website, then the Alliant website, then the Nosler manual, then the Sierra Manual, depending on what I'm doing and what load I'm working with. Then, I pick a mid-range load and do my own workup to see what works best in my rifle.
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