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Here is my risk/reward analysis:
Option One - NRA opposes the bill.
Reward: If they are successful and the bill goes down in flames, then everybody wins.
Risk: Whether they are successful or unsuccessful, the RKBA-friendly Democrats who helped the NRA will be the ones to pay the price at the polls in November. That is going to be something other politicians remember as well. In addition, if NRA is unsuccessful, they will have their ability to speak out limited and face the problems with membership lists.
Option Two: NRA neither supports nor opposes bill and accepts Shuler amendment
Reward: Pro-RKBA Dems owe the NRA for not making them choose between party and NRA. NRA is exempted from the law.
Risk: If the law is found to be constitutional and later gains traction, several years down the road, NRA may face challenges to its exemption if public sentiment regarding the desirability of campaign finance law remains unchanged.
So which one looks like the better choice to you?
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