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what if your primary mag fails?
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That's an argument that neither peetza or armstrong have addressed fully and sufficiently.
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That's the only legitimate probability of needing a reload, IMO. If you carry one for that reason it's more justifiable than thinking you need more bullets. An equipment malfunction that can be most easily cleared by a mag replacement may be common enough to justify carrying a reload for some people. It's not common enough for me to carry one however, which has been my general point all along.
Like I said, you've got to draw the line somewhere. Nothing will cover every possibility. You've got to decide, for yourself, which events are unlikely enough to ignore and make your decisions accordingly. No matter what, you're ignoring SOME events that COULD happen, only you can decide how far you want to take your preparation. You might be prepared for 99.9% of all incidents, add a mag and be prepared for 99.99%, add a bug and be prepared for 99.999%. At some point, it becomes irrelevant. For me, that point is a 9+1 Glock 33.