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Old June 26, 2009, 11:50 AM   #71
Glenn E. Meyer
Senior Member
 
Join Date: November 17, 2000
Posts: 20,064
The gang of people is a rare event - it is a Black Swan event - but it can happen as can a high intensity gun fight.

Reginald Denney - a one in a million event but it happened to him.

Being in a mall rampage as the officer was in Omaha with limited ammo.

Being in a school shooting with more than one attacker (Columbine and Jonesboro) with the fight being at some distance.

Having a car full of racists, hooligans, or whatever decide to come for you. Seen that twice.

So rather than dismiss the risk - it is better to say that it is a small risk and you choose to not to worry about that one. But to say, it can't happen is foolish.

Also, it is not hard with modern equipment to carry a semi with an extra mag or two and be comfortable.

Thus, the odds argument as presented here is usually a misinterpretation of statistics and risk analysis. You set a reasonable criterion and stick with it.

The reasonable level is usually a primary and a reload. Dress can suggest the J frame or a speed loader but it's not hard to do a reasonable semi and a mag.

You probably will never need any of these.
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