The Firing Line Forums - View Single Post - Is the White House losing the fight for gun control?

Webleymkv · January 15, 2013, 11:54 AM

OK, there are a few things that need to be remembered about American politics when considering the issue. This may be mildly political and for that I apologize, but I think it's necessary to adequately explain the situation. Roughly 40% of people will always vote Democrat and roughly 40% will always vote Republican, it's the 20% in between that usually decides an election. In the case of the Democrat party, a good portion of their 40% base supports gun control, but the issue is much less popular amongst the 20% of "swing voters". This puts them in a somewhat precarious position because angering the swing voters will ensure losses in future elections, but they still need to motivate their base to get out and vote as well.

So, the question for the Democrat party is how to appease the base without stepping on the toes of everyone else. President Obama's base has not been very happy with him over gun control (he recieved an F rating from the Brady Campaign over the lack of gun control in his first term) and thus he runs the risk of damaging the party if he does nothing over Sandy Hook. On the other hand, gun control remains a poison issues outside of the Democrat base and thus anything too extensive on that front would also be damaging to the party.

Because of this, what the President needs to do in order to placate his base without angering the swing voters is to take symbolic action on gun control without forcing Democratic members of Congress to vote on it one way or the other. In essence, the President can "take the fall" on gun control because he cannot be re-elected again and thus is immune to the ire of swing voters.

Now, a sweeping executive order could potentially be just as damaging to Congressional Democrats as anti-gun legislation. This is for two reasons: first there would be a fair amount of guilt by association for being in the same party as a gun banner. Second, to do anything really sweeping the President would have to overstep the boundaries of his executive power which would almost certainly provoke a fight with Congressional Republicans. Like gun control legislation, a fight over executive orders would force Congressional Democrats to pick a side and neither position is likely to leave them unscathed.

The wise thing for the President to do, politically, is to issue executive orders that do not overstep his authority nor enact substantial new gun control. Examples of such would be ordering the ATF to more aggressively prosecute people to make straw purchases or false statements on 4473's. This would allow him, and by extension his party, to placate the base by doing something without forcing Congressional Democrats from moderate or conservative districts to take a stance on the issue one way or the other. Likewise, it would allow him to rally the base by blaming Congressional Republicans for preventing him from taking more substantial gun control measures. The wise thing for us to do is to keep pressure on our legislators, particularly Democrats, so that they remain of the opinion that gun control is a poison issue.

January 15, 2013, 11:54 AM	#24
Webleymkv Senior Member Join Date: July 20, 2005 Location: Indiana Posts: 10,446	OK, there are a few things that need to be remembered about American politics when considering the issue. This may be mildly political and for that I apologize, but I think it's necessary to adequately explain the situation. Roughly 40% of people will always vote Democrat and roughly 40% will always vote Republican, it's the 20% in between that usually decides an election. In the case of the Democrat party, a good portion of their 40% base supports gun control, but the issue is much less popular amongst the 20% of "swing voters". This puts them in a somewhat precarious position because angering the swing voters will ensure losses in future elections, but they still need to motivate their base to get out and vote as well. So, the question for the Democrat party is how to appease the base without stepping on the toes of everyone else. President Obama's base has not been very happy with him over gun control (he recieved an F rating from the Brady Campaign over the lack of gun control in his first term) and thus he runs the risk of damaging the party if he does nothing over Sandy Hook. On the other hand, gun control remains a poison issues outside of the Democrat base and thus anything too extensive on that front would also be damaging to the party. Because of this, what the President needs to do in order to placate his base without angering the swing voters is to take symbolic action on gun control without forcing Democratic members of Congress to vote on it one way or the other. In essence, the President can "take the fall" on gun control because he cannot be re-elected again and thus is immune to the ire of swing voters. Now, a sweeping executive order could potentially be just as damaging to Congressional Democrats as anti-gun legislation. This is for two reasons: first there would be a fair amount of guilt by association for being in the same party as a gun banner. Second, to do anything really sweeping the President would have to overstep the boundaries of his executive power which would almost certainly provoke a fight with Congressional Republicans. Like gun control legislation, a fight over executive orders would force Congressional Democrats to pick a side and neither position is likely to leave them unscathed. The wise thing for the President to do, politically, is to issue executive orders that do not overstep his authority nor enact substantial new gun control. Examples of such would be ordering the ATF to more aggressively prosecute people to make straw purchases or false statements on 4473's. This would allow him, and by extension his party, to placate the base by doing something without forcing Congressional Democrats from moderate or conservative districts to take a stance on the issue one way or the other. Likewise, it would allow him to rally the base by blaming Congressional Republicans for preventing him from taking more substantial gun control measures. The wise thing for us to do is to keep pressure on our legislators, particularly Democrats, so that they remain of the opinion that gun control is a poison issue.