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What are the odds that a pre-Model 10 with a serial number in the 472,000 range would have the same (or very similar) grips as one from the 623,000 range?
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Tough question. The problem is that SCSW just lists a wide range for dates and SNs on those old .38 M&Ps: SN 241704 in 1915, and SN 700000 in 1942. If we do a little interpolating, making the assumption that production was spread evenly over those years (which is admittedly a SWAG), then your gun was made around 1928, and a gun in the 623,000 range would have been made around 1937.
S&W used the same grips on the early K-frame hand ejectors from 1920 to 1929, then changed to a different design from 1929 to 1941, so the problem is that, using the assumptions above, your gun is right on the cusp of the change in 1929, which was to go from a grip that had no medallion (i.e., just smooth walnut at the top) to one that had flush-mounted silver medallions. I would say it's a toss-up which of those options your gun originally came with. Either way, you would want the older-style round top grips, not the magna style (and maybe that's close enough?).