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The cold is not going to affect you ability to shoot unless you let your hands get cold. But then again it has the same effect on just about anything you do. If in a SD situation, the heavy clothing the scum bag reciever of the shot might have on could be a factor if you are useing a marginal round. But you would also be wearing heavier clothing so you can conceal a larger handgun. These minor factors would not affect my decision to go armed because the fact is being unarmed in a SD situation is the worst thing.
With rifles the cold can affect you shot, but usually only to a very small degree. Not enough to make a hit a miss in 98% of situations.
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