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Those numbers are going to be different for every single member of this forum. Therefore, I consider your estimate irrelevant to everyone but yourself.
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So then, what ARE the odds? For how small a probability do we prepare?
I do have some numbers provided by a person who teaches and examines these things for a living. They were provided to me in a private conversation, as such I'll not post them here without permission. That person is more than capable of providing that information to this thread if he so desires. The point being that there ARE facts and figures indicating how many rounds are needed in REAL SD situations. Some people either choose not to look, choose to ignore people who actually know or choose to believe and do what they want regardless.