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How do you figure out what to deem necessary with any accuracy then? Knowing what is likely to happen gives you a starting point to decide these sorts of things.
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No, it doesn’t. Knowing what the “typical” scenario is doesn’t tell you a thing about what you’ll run into. Prepare for something about three times as bad as anything you’ve ever heard of. That’s your starting point.
In the entire history of gunfighting, there has never been a case where one of the shooters wished he had a smaller gun that held fewer rounds of less powerful ammo.