[sesquipedalian101]

Originally Posted by Deaf Smith

I sure hope someone tells the miltary. Looks like for many decades the USMC, SF, Rangers, and the like have been mistaken.

I am NOT commenting on the quality of military training in this post; however, after having consulted for graduate-level research statistics for a number of years, I feel qualified to spot "sample bias." I have heard personal testimony for years, in multiple contexts, that "training matters." There is a catch however... If we assume, for the sake of argument, that the defensive techniques taught, when followed correctly, dramatically increase the odds of survival, then there is a self-selection factor going on... Those who were able to respond in the manner that they were trained will, naturally, credit their training for their success. Those who fail to follow their training, for whatever reason (maybe the training was not appropriate for their personal circumstance), will tend to be under-represented in the final tally -- because they will be "structurally unable" to report.

Further, there is a tendency to stop the inquiry once the "Did he follow training?" question is answered without necessarily finding out why the training was ignored (lack of good practice? circumstances not covered in training? panic? equipment failure? physiological failure? psychological failure? plain Bad Luck? et cetera?).

Back when I was diving regularly, I used to follow the accident/injury/fatality reports pretty closely. Most "accidents" and/or fatalities were deemed a result of failure to follow procedures properly. Regardless of the cause, seldom was the victim able to provide a "reason" for his departure from training ("So tell us: Why did you hold your breath and shoot to the surface from 60ft of depth?"). The bottom line is, in most hazardous endeavors, we know more about why someone sticks to their training successfully (because they get to report) than about the things that cause deviation there from.

I remember a sky diver who accidentally left his parachute aboard the aircraft on his 500th jump; we'll never know why for sure (though the new video camera with which he was playing likely had an effect).

-101-