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So, the question is pretty simple; do you think that it is wise to expect to shoot just 3 or 4 rounds,
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NO
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or should you have a weapon with more capacity just in case that average no longer holds truth, or you just happen to be one of those that don’t trust luck when it comes to falling within favorable odds.
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The average doesn't mean squat. Mutually exclusive historical data mean nothing to your particular shooting situation. What happened to somebody else, say Tom Givens' students (or any other shooting data), doesn't mean squat. The data are interesting, but can't be used to predict what will happen to YOU in YOUR SITUATION.
You have a 50-50 chance your shooting will be average. Either it will be average, or it won't.
So do you have an issue with preparing for more than 3-4 rounds? It isn't like preparing for more will utterly destroy you if you train for a higher round count. What is wrong with preparing for the worst and hoping for the best?