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I, personally, don't think that HR822 has a chance of making it through the Senate. If it does, Obama will veto it. Since it takes a 2/3 majority in the House and also a 2/3 majority in the Senate to override a presidential veto, it is dead.
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Regardless of its likelihood to earn a veto-proof majority, his party will probably make an all-out concerted effort to ensure that the bill doesn't reach his desk before the November election. Either stance he could take on this bill will upset a lot of voters in crucial swing states. Keeping the bill bottled up will allow his campaign to stay "on message" more easily.
(Pardon the potential sidetrack into politics, I feel it needed to be said.)
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What we need (and might get with Woollard) is a Supreme Court verdict affirming a right to carry, and things like reciprocity will emanate from that.
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+100.