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The issue will be whether enough of the people support a change such that it weakens the security forces. Playing rural recruits against urban demonstrators has worked across the world. Even in the USA.
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I think Mohsavi's next important test will be whether he can sway any significant factions within the police, military, or Basij militia to his side.
News reports are saying that the Basij consists largely of ultra-right-wing Ahmadinijad supporters, and that large gangs of them are riding around Tehran on motorcycles and breaking up protests. If history is any guide, it is only a matter of time before some of these guys get way out of line. If someone films them doing something outrageously abusive, it may prompt fragmentation of the police or military, which can only help the opposition.
I think that this raises a great question pertaining to the 2A in the USA. IMHO a good reason for the 2A is not necessarily to allow the militia to stand up to a professional army, but to prevent the over-concentration of arms and power in the hands of
one particular militia.
Again, if history is any guide, a
single government-sponsored militia often winds up being used to violently quash dissent amongst the populace. OTOH if the populace can raise their
own militia, this could dissuade a power-hungry government from being tempted to establish a powerful paramilitary force in the first place. Discuss.
