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Obama doesn't need the AWB ... the interamerican treaty that's been unratified for several years just needs to slide through the Demo majority Senate and the dirty work is all but done ... or the UN gun-banners, who finally have a sympathetic ear in the white house, will work their magic ..
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An outright gun or ammo ban like the one in the treaty would fail so spectacularly that it would make Prohibition look like a walk in the park. Senators voting for the gun-banning treaty would have to face the music when they're up for re-election. The Senate has a larger number of members from pro-gun states than the House since pro-gun states outnumber anti-gun states. Those senators are not going to commit political suicide for reasons of party loyalty.
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And those who are expecting rationality from politicians are in for a sad awakening ... no such thing ... you can truck out all the stats you want showing how much better citizens CHL holders are and how crime has plunged in states with a shall issue law ... if that worked, it would have worked already ...
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I think that the Democratic Party's recent sweep of the Presidency, House, and Senate is the result of a
very rational strategy wherein the party has emphasized moderate positions that appeal to independent voters. This strategy is borne out by party leaders'
refusal to use gun control as a litmus test in deciding which candidates to back for congressional seats.
It's very difficult to prove that shall-issue CHL laws are in
any way responsible for the drop in crime in shall-issue states. This has been recently discussed in other LACR threads. I strongly support shall-issue CHL laws for protection of
myself, but IMHO the overall effect on crime is debatable.
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I personally think our gun rights are teetering on the edge ... two appeals courts have already rejected the 9th's ruling that Heller applies to the states ... including the 2nd, from where we will soon be seeing Sotomayor departiing for the Scotus ...
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The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, widely considered the most liberal court in the country, recently
backed incorporation with the
Nordyke decision. Furthermore, the recent 7th Circuit anti-incorporation decision used shaky logic that can be interpreted as a deliberate attempt to punt the case to the SCOTUS.
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That treaty has no shot at passing. Gun Rights are pushing forward full speed ahead right now. There is no appetite for gun control legislation, ESPECIALLY one as sweeping as that treaty. Don't be paranoid. Be weary and vigilant, but not paranoid.
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I'm with him. The recent direction of U.S. gun rights has me encouraged, albeit not quite ecstatic.
