the harder you train...
... the harder it should be to get over-confident. Stuff works, except when it doesn't. There are plenty of times in training when it doesn't. Ideally, though, that teaches not to fixate on any given technique, and just keep moving and looking for openings.
To paraphrase Sun T'zu, the man who knows his enemy is powerful, but the man who knows himself (strengths and limitations) is stronger still.
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