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Old March 23, 2013, 01:58 PM   #19
Double Naught Spy
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Join Date: January 8, 2001
Location: Forestburg, Montague County, Texas
Posts: 10,397
Quote:
I don't mean to nitpick, but your post is full of assumptions, and light on facts.
That is kind of the point of the ignorance of the claim that More CCW = Less crime. It is very strong on assumptions and light on facts. I was simply demonstrating how the same process can be shown why criminals don't fear CCW enough for crime rates to change. We can make whatever argument you want that is strong on assumptions and light on facts.

Quote:
You assume you can tell who has a gun in the house, and who doesn't. The risk of a criminal running into a CCW holder is enough to keep *some* (probably a small percentage) from committing a violent crime. Even if it's only a few percent who stop, or slow down their actions, it would still be a statistically significant number.
I never assumed that a I or a criminal can tell which house has a gun and which doesn't. You are the one making that assumption. I simply noted that it was more likely for there to be a gun in a house then a person legally ccw. This is backed up by the tremendous number of gun owners but relative few licensees. Gary Kleck's estimates are that 43% of US households have guns. Even if each household contained to legal aged adults (which they don't), no state has a 21.5% CCW rate. Most are significantly lower than that. So yeah, you are more likely to encounter a house where a gun is than a person with a gun. If, as a criminal I wish to commit a violent crime and reduce to risk from legal firearms, picking a victim NOT at home is better than picking one who is.

Quote:
I tend to believe that higher gun ownership, and more people carrying guns have an effect on crime, but I would never say for sure that's the reason.
Yes, we would all like for this to be true (even if you are mixing the concepts of simple ownership with the concept of the thread, CCW), but the fact of the matter at this time is that the only stats where we can show that crime is definitely influenced by CCW is when a person with a CCW stops a crime against themselves or others. Of course, that is where CCW matters most. Of course, even when a crime is stopped, that is a crime statistic that gets added to the tally of crimes committed, even if it doesn't come to fruition.
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