The political reality is that there will never, ever, as long as the United States of America governs the country, be legal guns in the holsters, whether open or concealed, of citizens walking the streets of New York City.
New York City is "different," "special." It's the headquarters of the United Nations. It has the New York Stock Exchange, Broadway, Times Square, Central Park. It's one of America's two truly international cities. It should properly be considered as America's Hong Kong.
Until SAF and Gura recognize this basic political reality and craft a means of allowing New York City, or just Manhattan Island, not to be governed by the same gun laws that bind the rest of the state, Gura's going to lose, and our rights are going to pay the price.
In Kachalsky, at any level, the court will first look at the case and consider the outcome of granting Gura his desired remedy. If this remedy includes citizens carrying loaded firearms up Seventh Avenue, he's gone too far, and he's going to lose.
If the case were filed blind, where no state names, city names, party names were present in the case, where the pleadings contained merely the text of the disputed law, argument and the remedy requested, he'd probably win the case in a walk. Sadly, cases are not decided in abstract detachment.
The best hope for getting gun rights restored to the rest of New York is probably to have New York City severed from the United States as an international territory. The United States would retain protection duties of NYC under treaty, but its laws would not apply. Without the laws of the United States controlling NYC, the Second Amendment would not apply, and the citizens of Schenectady could have a good chance at getting their gun rights restored. Of course, this plan would really disrupt the balance of power in Albany, so it would likely never go anywhere, but I see it as the only means of getting good gun rights in that state.