Gaerek, the idea that most guns go south was debunked rather heavily when the methods the feds used in their study were revealed. They only ran checks on guns that were serialized according to US law. Once that was determined, IE that the sample checked were cherry picked from the Mexican bin of guns, the percentage dropped from over 90% to around 17%.
Then, look at all the M16 pattern weapons in use by the Zeta cartel. Let's see... who founded the Zetas? Oh, yeah - former Mexican Special Forces officers. Think they may have acquired some of their weaponry from Mexican Army armories?
Then, of course, the US supported sides in conflicts in Nicaragua and El Salvador for many years. I wonder why M16, M1 carbine, and 1911 pattern weapons might be in circulation?
Meanwhile, the former USSR had typically supported the other sides. Now where other than US gun stores and citizens could cartels get AK47 pattern guns?
China will sell weapons to anybody. Cheap.
NFA weapons from the US cost thousands. Would I, as a theoretical cartel guy, spend $6K on a pre-ban M16, or $150 on a black market Salvadoran M16? Hmmmm... tough one.
So, please explain your comment about most guns going south?