The case that may be the tipping point is, Woollard.
Should the CA4 reach a favorable (for us) decision, despite what the CA2 decided, despite Sandy Hook, then we will most likely see a cert grant in Kachalksy.
The CA3 judges are not stupid. They know all of this. Their choices are to side with the badly worded and decided decision in the CA2, or to go with the decision by CA7 Judge Posner and that of the district court by Judge Legg (remembering that 2 other cases in the CA4 were also decided in favor of the right to carry, at about the same time as Woollard).
The CA3 panel could conceivably render a decision before the cert stage is over in Kachalsky. This could be an indicator to the SCOTUS.
Likely scenario at this point in time is for both the CA4 and the CA3 to hold their decisions until after a grant or denial of cert in Kachalsky.
ETA: Both David Jensen and David Sigale are understudies to Alan Gura.