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Old January 13, 2013, 12:28 AM   #40
Tom Servo
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Join Date: September 27, 2008
Location: Foothills of the Appalachians
Posts: 10,252
Quote:
In the end, if the market is working, supply will increase and hopefully meet and exceed demand.
I don't think that's physically possible at the moment.

Take the AR-15 as an example. Let's get more specific and use the Colt 6920, since that's the all-arounder. Before the panic, they sold for $1100 or so. Then they disappeared. Then they showed up at the local gun shows for $3500. People bought them.

The result? Huge scarcity and tolerance for huge price increases. At the moment, Colt isn't giving estimates for when retailers can expect a restock. In fact, they're not even answering their phones.

The scarcity gets worse, and people pay more. It becomes a vicious cycle. At the moment, the buying public accepts that equation.

When a couple trickle out to a retailer, he has to raise prices to keep cash flow going. Now regular price on the 6920 is $2000. Hey, that's cheaper than the gun show! Those probably don't last ten minutes on the rack, and the cycle continues.

Eventually, things will level out, but by then the public will have accepted higher prices as the new normal. One local retailer is selling XM193 for $1.00/round, and he's not getting complaints. People want the ammo that badly.

TL;DR: we're looking at significant scarcity for months at least, and higher prices for quite awhile.
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