The genocide scholars state that a characteristic of a victim population is that they cannot defend themselves. Not gun scholars - other historians.
A genocide seems not to get started if the target group is capable. You might get civil war but that's a different beast.
So we cannot prove what would have happened in Europe. The Jews in Russia and Germany had discrepant views but both argued against self-defense.
In Germany, they didn't think it would happen to them as they were Germans. In Russia - it was thought that if you resisted - say shoot a Cossack - then more would come and kill all. Tnus, it was better to lose Grandma then the whole village.
But you don't know if from the start they were capable of resistance they picture would change.
In the USA, recall that gun laws were put in place to oppress blacks as it was feared they would resist before the end of slavery and during the Jim Crow era. The CA laws against the Black Panther demonstrations of armed SD indicates the state worries about such.