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December 6, 2012, 12:19 PM   #127
OldMarksman
Senior Member

Join Date: June 8, 2008
Posts: 1,829
Quote:
 Posted by dayman: I don't buy that [(On average, the lifetime chance of a twelve year old being attacked by a violent criminal actor at least once is about 50%)].
I remembered it wrong. The estimated lifetime average likelihood of a twelve year old being injured in a violent crime at least once calculates out to 40%. The likelihood of being attacked at least once is estimated at 83%. The calculations are based on National Crime Statistics annual victimization rates and life-span stats from the National Center for Health Statistics. See this.

That's using some assumptions, one of which is that the probability of victimization in any one year remains constant, which it will not. An older person is less likely than a younger one to go to bars or go to class or work in a quick-shop at night, but he represents and easier victim when he is vulnerable.

Quote:
 Without doing the math, I know a lot of people and - outside of the line of duty - none of them has been the victim of a violent crime, maybe I"m forgetting something, but nowhere near 50%.
What has happened to those whom you know proves nothing.

Quote:
 Doing the math, if in a given year you have a 0.38% chance of being the victim of a violent crime, you can't simply multiply the odds by the number of years.
Correct.

Quote:
 To get a 50% probability of being victimized in an 80 year time frame you'd have to have a live in an area with an 0.86% chance in a given year, or 860 per 100,000. If that's the case, you might want to look for a new place to live.
Not really. Where you live is but one factor. Others include where you work and where you go and when, how physically imposing you are, what you wear, whom you know, how you use situational awareness, and other thing.

Quote:
 And obviously you can significantly reduce even those odds by making responsible lifestyle choices - not being a gang member, not mouthing off at bikers in bars, etc.
Yep.