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June 29, 2012, 08:33 PM   #21
JohnKSa
Staff

Join Date: February 12, 2001
Location: DFW Area
Posts: 17,840
Quote:
 Is there any data available to compare recent hit percentages with those from when revolvers were the primary issue weapons?
That's a good question, and I don't have an answer for it.

However, we can look at the "revolver-like" scenarios to see how a higher hit rate affects the outcomes.

If we look at the second chart and focus on the 5 and 6 shot traces, we see that it takes a hit rate substantially exceeding 50% before the chances of success rise to a 50/50 chance of success. If we want to attain a 70% success rate it takes a hit rate better than 65% with either 5 or 6 shots.
Quote:
 Charts and speculation don't mean jack in the Real World.
They can mean a great deal.

In this case, what the charts mean, in the real world is this:

If you have a 5 shot handgun and if your effective hit rate is 30% in a gunfight and if you are faced with 2 attackers that each require at least 2 hits each to be neutralized(stop attacking).

Then your chances of success (success=making 2 or more hits on each of your attackers) do not exceed 3.08%; your odds of failing are 97% or worse.

Your chances of success might actually be worse than 3% in the real world for any number of reasons that aren't foreseen by the relatively simple assumptions made to govern these calculations, but they can't be any better, within the bounds of the assumptions lined out in the previous paragraph.
Quote:
 But it's not intended as an accurate prediction model.
Correct. The charts give only a kind of "best case" outcome based on the stated assumptions.
Quote:
 One might be well served to define three hits as success.
The plots pretty much tell the whole story for the assumption that 4 hits are required, but I can run different scenarios now that I have the spreadsheet set up.

Making a new set of plots takes a bit of time, so I'm not offering to do that, but if anyone has some numbers that they want run based on a different number of hits required for "success", I'll be happy to run the numbers for some different scenarios.
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