I have absolutely no experience in shootouts, and I hope to maintain that record for the rest of my natural
life. Note the emphasis.
I respect the work done by the OP, and with a fair bit of experience in higher math, statistics and analysis, I have no quarrel with his methodology.
All that said...
I have seen zero evidence that the actual, documented experiences of CHL holders (or SD experiences in general) bears out this thesis.
In fact, quite the opposite.
I am open to evidence to the contrary, and welcome it, as my choice of concealed carry weapons has gone through quite a journey, and is still evolving...but has remained somewhat stable over the past three years. These days, I carry what I shoot best (either a 6-shot S&W revolver or a 1911).
If my current choice is the wrong one, and this can be proven...I am open to change. But it's going to require some fairly solid evidence to change my mind...
Best regards, Rich