I think that the much more likely path for broadening carry rights is the judiciary and agreements between the states, and I'm not all that convinced that's not the way it should be.
I think you're absolutely right. HR 822 will be watered down well before passage, and I don't doubt that a number of onerous riders will be attached. Furthermore, all it does is reinforce the idea that carry is a permitted privilege rather than a right.
What we need (and might get with Woollard
) is a Supreme Court verdict affirming a right to carry, and things like reciprocity will emanate from that.