And by the tim e what you outlined is over, how many non-combatants are dead? This time US citizens instead of people who's names we couldn't remember if we wanted to b/c we can't pronounce them.
a strategic defeat in both conflicts
You see that, but not the big picture? Insurgencies are long drawn out things that almost always rely on bankrupting the government.
I didn't say I would be organizing anything. I didn't say I would be ambushing anyone "on their way to work." One thing people seem to miss in these discussions is our government is quite fluid. If this all came to pass and I was put in the place of picking a side it would likely rely heavily on the results of the previous election cycle. Previous to a rebellion politics would have to be EXTREMELY polarized even in comparison to what we see today. The parties would look nothing like they do now.
The reality of the government situation is simple though. I live next to a very large base. Almost all of the officers live off base. There really isn't permanent housing on base to even hold them in the long term, and certainly not their families. At one time there was but at this point it is all replaced with labs. It would likely be possible to convert several neighborhoods close to the base, cordon them off and try to beef up security, but even that would cause immense problems and still leave vulnerabilities. When things get ugly they get dirty. Did you think people would call each other out and duel at ten paces with distinguished honor?
Being home turf is no advantage at all. It is a logistical and psychological nightmare, especially once desertion kicks in and given the tactics the US currently deploys, which are VERY dependent on a secure supply chain. Try PTSD when there is no rotation out of country and you are killing people who cry out in your native language. US military has huge problems now with diversion of material stores for profit, wait until that mixes with ideology. I can't think of a single insurgency in world history where the insurgents had close to the military power of the government they opposed. They don't need it. They just need to hang on and keep embarrassing the government maintaining an environment of insecurity..
All pretty much irrelevant though. As noted, no insurgent is going to have sufficient supply to take advantage of full auto all that much and if it comes to that converting semi auto weapons to full or just making new full autos will be much simpler than anyone making the laws seems to realize. Criminals certainly do it with little trouble whatsoever.