As far as I'm concerned, it isn't the odds that matter. It's the stakes. I've carried from pants on till pants off for years, and will continue doing so. If you don't want to do that, it's your business. The only way I know of to have a gun when you really really need one is to have one at hand all the time. Some people try to address that issue by hiding guns all over the house. I'd rather have a gun on my person and not have to keep up with guns all over the place. Again, if you choose to hide guns all over, that's your business- feel free. Or if you want all your guns locked up in a safe all the time except when you're actually planning to use one, that's fine by me too. It's not my business, it's yours. Stuff happens, sometimes weird stuff happens, and on rare occasions having a gun at hand is a good idea. If you can predict when that will be, you're better than I am. I haven't learned to either predict or schedule my emergencies.
Local newspapers* had a story not long ago about sumdood who was using a shotgun from an overpass to disable cars on I-95 not far from here, then robbing the occupants when they pulled over. This is high weirdness as far as I'm concerned, nothing at all a normal person would expect to have happen on a normal day. But it happened. And it was uncomfortably close by. Fortunately the last set of people he tried to rob - guess what - had a handgun handy. Robeson County is a lot of things, but it's never boring...